Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Watandar]

Two facts must be confirmed:
In a few years, pipelines bypassing the Hormuz will be built in every GCC, rendering the blockade of the Hormuz an unusable card.
In a few years, US production of interceptor and cruise missiles will increase several times over, making it impossible for Iran to resist.
Therefore, a ceasefire now would certainly lead to Iran's demise within the next two to three years.
If Iran lacks the plan and courage to develop nuclear weapons after a ceasefire, then continuing the war is the only logical conclusion.

You are right that many pipelines will be built to bypass the SoH but pipelines are vulnerable and fragile. They can be disrupted at thousands of points. So it's not a silver bullet for GCC.

 

[ShapurII]

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Yes, but they still have jet fuel for their air force and gasoline for their cars! So, we haven't rendered Haifa and Ashdod fully inoperable yet.

I mean look at what Israel and the US do to our civilian infrastructure. They used 9 cruise missiles on the B-1 bridge, a small target! I don't know what type of missiles they used, but if we assume they used Tomahawk missiles and each missile carries a 450 kilogram warhead, that's like using a 4,000 kilogram warhead for one bridge!

Sure, we're using ballistic missiles which has a lot more kinetic energy, but we never aim for total annihilation, I think. And that's the issue with us. We need to cripple their key industries if the war switches to targeting the civilian infrastructure of Iran.

So, maybe it's better to focus on the complete annihilation of four or five key infrastructures in Israel instead of lightly damaging 40-50 different places.

 

[Optical216]

Yes, but they still have jet fuel for their air force and gasoline for their cars! So, we haven't rendered Haifa and Ashdod fully inoperable yet.

I mean look at what Israel and the US do to our civilian infrastructure. They used 9 cruise missiles on the B-1 bridge, a small target! I don't know what type of missiles they used, but if we assume they used Tomahawk missiles and each missile carries a 450 kilogram warhead, that's like using a 4,000 kilogram warhead for one bridge!

Sure, we're using ballistic missiles which has a lot more kinetic energy, but we never aim for total annihilation, I think. And that's the issue with us.

So, maybe it's better to focus on the complete annihilation of four or five key infrastructures in Israel instead of lightly damaging 40-50 different places.

irgc needs to man up more! i can still sense they are holding back in fear of escalation!

 

[Immortals]

Yes, but they still have jet fuel for their air force and gasoline for their cars! So, we haven't rendered Haifa and Ashdod fully inoperable yet.

I mean look at what Israel and the US do to our civilian infrastructure. They used 9 cruise missiles on the B-1 bridge, a small target! I don't know what type of missiles they used, but if we assume they used Tomahawk missiles and each missile carries a 450 kilogram warhead, that's like using a 4,000 kilogram warhead for one bridge!

Sure, we're using ballistic missiles which has a lot more kinetic energy, but we never aim for total annihilation, I think. And that's the issue with us.

So, maybe it's better to focus on the complete annihilation of four or five key infrastructures in Israel instead of lightly damaging 40-50 different places.

Again, a problem of this war is Iran never invested in a expensive - but critically important weapons platform that could reliably hit HVT targets of Israel.

These rumored “super” weapons that IRGC liked to brag about haven’t materialized.

Iran can only rely on slow drones or BMs with varying degrees of accuracy for this job. However, if they had invested in either a true HGV hypersonic or some type of supersonic suicide drone with a very low observable cross section, that while not built in thousands was built in a couple hundred, it could reliably strike more economic assets of Israel.

The issue for Iran is Israel is 2000KM and it doesn’t have the ability to fly to Syria and lob ALBM at Israel like IAF can do to Iran.

 

[Flotilla]

Another point of Trump being removed from office is if Iran also blocks the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, especially the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through its Houthi proxy forces.

Imagine the catastrophic effect this will have on the entire world.

I agree that Irán alone cannot fire Trump from his position. But Congress could do it Irán escalates a bit more.

This idea you cited it is also very good. And it is not necessary to be something traumatic or exposed like a Iranian victory.

Maybe Irán can deal with someone of the US Congress and in exchange of Trump´s removal sign a treaty directly with the Congress. Someone more pragmatical should replace Trump´s. Rubio was against this war and his tone has been much less bombastic than Trump´s or Mad Pete´s ones.

But signing a deal it is a trap. Trump will break it with the support of Netanyahu.

 

[Immortals]

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[Ali_Baba]

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The quickest way for this to come to an end, would be regime change in the USA. I can't see Iran want to negotiated with Trump anymore.

 

[ShapurII]

Again, a problem of this war is Iran never invested in a expensive - but critically important weapons platform that could reliably hit HVT targets of Israel.

These rumored “super” weapons that IRGC liked to brag about haven’t materialized.

Iran can only rely on slow drones or BMs with varying degrees of accuracy for this job. However, if they had invested in either a true HGV hypersonic or some type of supersonic suicide drone with a very low observable cross section, that while not built in thousands was built in a couple hundred, it could reliably strike more economic assets of Israel.

The issue for Iran is Israel is 2000KM and it doesn’t have the ability to fly to Syria and lob ALBM at Israel like IAF can do to Iran.

On top of that, the issue is that Iran stopped investing in science and technology after Ahmadinejad left the office. Rohani was a disaster for Iran. He reduced Iran's R&D budget and focused on patents, instead of publishing research. A policy that not only hurt Iran's academic research, but did not have the intended effect for patents in Iran either.

So, yes, we do have a technology problem. But our shortcomings aside, we have never fired 10-20 missiles at a single target in this war. Maybe we have, but I have never seen that in the videos on the internet. It's almost like we want to damage HVTs, but not destroy them in a meaningful way.

 

[Immortals]

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[Ali_Baba]

Still wrong

So @Fatman17 - what is the right answer ?

 

[Immortals]

On top of that, the issue is that Iran stopped investing in science and technology after Ahmadinejad left the office. Rohani was a disaster for Iran. He reduced Iran's R&D budget and focused on patents, instead of publishing research. A policy that not only hurt Iran's academic research, but did not have the intended effect for patents in Iran either.

So, yes, we do have a technology problem. But our shortcomings aside, we have never fired 10-20 missiles at a single target in this war. Maybe we have, but I have never seen that in the videos on the internet. It's almost like we want to damage HVTs, but not destroy them in a meaningful way.

The next 24 to 48 hours will show us is if IRGC and by extension Mojtaba and the remaining factions will allow the use of greater force against Israeli energy infrastructure.

This would require the use of Fatah 1 and 2 and Basir and Nasrallah missile and anything else Iran has hidden up its sleeve.

 

[ShapurII]

I agree that Irán alone cannot fire Trump from his position. But Congress could do it Irán escalates a bit more.

This idea you cited it is also very good. And it is not necessary to be something traumatic or exposed like a Iranian victory.

Maybe Irán can deal with someone of the US Congress and in exchange of Trump´s removal sign a treaty directly with the Congress. Someone more pragmatical should replace Trump´s. Rubio was against this war and his tone has been much less bombastic than Trump´s or Mad Pete´s ones.

But signing a deal it is a trap. Trump will break it with the support of Netanyahu.

The Republicans control both the US Senate and the Congress.

They will not go against Trump. Trump currently is the face of the Republican Party.

 

[D. John Trump]

You are right that many pipelines will be built to bypass the SoH but pipelines are vulnerable and fragile. They can be disrupted at thousands of points. So it's not a silver bullet for GCC

Pipeline can be repaired quickly.

 

[Immortals]

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[Watandar]

Pipeline can be repaired quickly.

And another hole can be punched in it again just as quickly. It's hard to guard pipelines extending thousands of miles. New tech can also be developed to attack pipelines under ground.