Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

A natural earthquake could be a opportunity to conceal the test of a nuclear weapon.

The seismic patterns will be different. Also, the depth of a nuclear explosion is not much. Nobody digs 10 km to test a nuke. The depths of these earthquakes were in the 8km-10km range. Too deep for a nuclear test.

For comparison, the deepest man-made hole in the world, "the Kola well" in Russia, is only 12km deep and it took the Soviets 5 years to dig the first half of it.

 

[Yasser76]

That number almost certainly includes 24 MQ-9 drones

Even taking into account the drones that leaves 15 manned aircraft!!!!!!

 

[Ak01]

During the 12-day war, multiple Iranian aircraft (tankers and cargo) were sheltered at Karachi Airport, so i wouldn't rule it out. Anyways, here's a video of an IRIAF C-130 on approach to Chaklala, they slipped in quietly around the time of the Vance visit.

yes, i saw first hand the iranian 747 tankers parked in karachi.

 

[rafale]

yes, i saw first hand the iranian 747 tankers parked in karachi.

Their civilian airliners were also parked in Pakistan, last year and this year too. Many were parked at Lahore.

 

[Yasser76]

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Very very interesting timing with Trump in Beijing, but also look at the wording of the below statement by Yi to FM Dar

"China’s top diplomat urged Pakistan to step up mediation efforts between Iran and the United States, and to help “properly” address the reopening of the Hormuz strait, Chinese state media said on Wednesday"

China urges Pakistan step up mediation in Middle East: state media

BEIJING: China’s top diplomat urged Pakistan to step up mediation efforts between Iran and the United States, and to help “properly” address the reopening of the Hormuz strait, Chinese state media said on Wednesday. Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar in a call...

www.arabnews.com

Chinese were annoyed that maybe we did a side deal with Iran to allow Pak bound ships through and China was not included, and suddenly many Chinese ships are sailing through. Funny huh!?

 

[BHAN85]

So you want to tie in scheduling a test with a prediction of when the next earthquake will occur, given their inherent unpredictability, just keep the detection by seismic waves to a minimum?

Okay, then, problem solved, I guess.



(The physics of the energy expansion and propagation are totally different and detectable.)

ChatGPT says this

Timing overlap would complicate analysis — but not necessarily defeat it
If an underground test occurred seconds or minutes after a natural quake:
Waveforms could overlap
Initial automatic detection might be confused
Attribution could take longer
However, analysts can often separate overlapping events using:
Array processing
Back-projection methods
Different arrival times at distributed stations
Spectral decomposition. A second source in a different location is usually detectable unless extremely close in both space and time.

There are always rumors and suspicious everytime a natural earthquake happens in Iran.
It must be a reason, because just a nuclear triggered earthquake is very different than a natural earthquake.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

Also, Russia and China will never standby while US finishes off Iran.

All eyes on China... see what China is willing or unwilling to do on trade, deficit, rare earths, investment in US, bonds and treasuries...
In return US will hold the reigns of Chinese economy. On the face of it ... China doesn't have to play ball on any of these... as it is negotiating on it's own turf and compromises they have to make to appease US... China's plaza accords so to speak. Because Japanese simply cannot continue buying US bonds when they're collapsing economically and demographically.
Which means US will be gearing for a ground invasion and whatever costs that come with it... as orange cannot take a strategic defeat for US fighting for a zionist cause while losing American blood and treasure till it runs dry. A direct consequence of a hubris ridden NY shyster, reality TV host and pdfile... perched as president.
It means ground invasion under both scenarios... not only that zion remains unconcerned with larger US balancing but the dynamics offered by China. Where China has given mixed signals... if however China does drop any support for Iran and signs a deal with US ... it will be grand capitulation of BRICS based parallel order. Means Iran will be weaker but unbending... facing zion and its proxies for a war to the end. On the flipside should China stand tall and doesn't budge... with no relief provided or projected for US... the US will still aim to attack Iran but this time to weaken it, instead of going all in to defeat Iran... something it would seek to put on a low burner... to come back and fight another day. This though will mean Iran can emerge as the preeminent power in the region eclipsing zion... and more than a match regionally.

 

[VCheng]

ChatGPT says this



There are always rumors and suspicious everytime a natural earthquake happens in Iran.
It must be a reason, because just a nuclear triggered earthquake is very different than a natural earthquake.

You do realize that there are other ways to help seismic wave analyses for the detection of underground nuclear explosions, right? The bottom line is that is is almost impossible to hide such tests.

That is why much of the testing has moved into the virtual domain with cold component testing for the subassemblies, to keep the capability hidden from the world - until it is time to reveal them, for geopolitical purposes.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Double or not, the $29 billion as quoted during the Senate hearing where Lindsay Graham was grilling Hegseth and Gen. Caine yesterday also mentioned the cost to repair the damaged/destroyed American bases in the Middle East is not factored in yet and it was uncertain if the local countries would share the cost in rebuilding them.

Logically, the local countries should not pay at a minimum, but ideally ask the Americans to reduce their presence and uptick their own defensive capabilities. But, "logic" does not really seem to work as a concept in the PGCC it seems.

 

[Ali_Baba]

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The smartest investment Irans military ever did!

Very good post you did there, I have translated for all here via google :

"
Are Iran's missile cities destructible?

I have previously written that Iran's missile cities are essentially designed to withstand very intense bombing and are practically impossible to destroy. To analyze Iran's missile capabilities, one must first understand the complex structure of missile cities. These cities are designed to absorb billions of dollars of enemy missiles and to keep people alive and the missiles intact, and I can confidently say that in 2026 there is no missile in the world that can destroy these cities.

Iran's "missile cities" are not simple concrete shelters, but underground operational networks buried deep in the mountains. The protective capability of these complexes is based on three main pillars: a natural shield resulting from geological engineering, a distributed and multilayered network structure, and resilience based on the ability to quickly repair.

Geological engineering is the most fundamental layer of protection. For example, the Yazd missile base in the mountainous central region of Iran, which was heavily bombed at least 500 times during the 40-day war, is dug to a depth of approximately 500 meters into the solid granite of Shirkuh. The compact granite effectively absorbs and disperses the energy of the explosion. Even the most powerful American bunker-busting bomb, the GBU-57, is reportedly unable to penetrate the central core of the facility against a layer of dense bedrock 50 to 100 meters thick.

The base’s interior design is based on survival through “networking.” The complexes are equipped with automated rail systems throughout the tunnels that connect assembly areas, weapons depots, and several secret exits on different mountain slopes. During operations, mobile launchers travel through the tunnels to the exits and fire rapidly, then immediately return deep into the ground and close the heavily armored doors. This greatly reduces the likelihood of their being targeted and destroyed in a counterattack.

From a practical perspective, the resilience of these missile cities has been proven. Under the pressure of combined airstrikes, although the vents and ventilation ducts of these underground facilities throughout Iran have been damaged, repair work has usually been completed within a few days, and the nuclear systems buried deep in the mountains have maintained their continuous operational status.

Based on geological protection, network structure support, and rapid repair capability, Iran’s “missile cities” have formed a reliable strike system that is impossible to cripple and have become the mainstay of Iran’s asymmetric deterrence strategy.

The New York Times report is not new with this definition, but I mention it because of the importance of the issue. The daily wrote: “Iran still has access to 30 of its 33 missile platforms on the Persian Gulf coast.”

The American newspaper wrote: This indicates a greater military power of Iran than what the US military and the White House claimed to have destroyed during the joint war with Israel.

These few lines from the New York Times did not please Aramap either, and China tweeted against the report, calling it fake news. Trump has repeatedly said and written that he has destroyed Iran's missile, naval and air forces, but the Strait of Hormuz is still closed."

 

[Ali_Baba]

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Where did they start their journey from? Iran ??

 

[ety]

All eyes on China... see what China is willing or unwilling to do on trade, deficit, rare earths, investment in US, bonds and treasuries...
In return US will hold the reigns of Chinese economy. On the face of it ... China doesn't have to play ball on any of these... as it is negotiating on it's own turf and compromises they have to make to appease US... China's plaza accords so to speak. Because Japanese simply cannot continue buying US bonds when they're collapsing economically and demographically.

China probably going to give US a finger if Trump thinks China is just another larger size Japan and US is all powerful. He has no good cards and Americans can keep dreaming that China will just give in to US demands. Its Trump that is dying to come to China.

 

[BHAN85]

You do realize that there are other ways to help seismic wave analyses for the detection of underground nuclear explosions, right? The bottom line is that is is almost impossible to hide such tests.

That is why much of the testing has moved into the virtual domain with cold component testing for the subassemblies, to keep the capability hidden from the world - until it is time to reveal them, for geopolitical purposes.

Yeah, but there are more concealing ways like decoupled underground tests (detonation inside underground big caves).

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-underground-nuclear-explosions-hidden-earthquake.html

Can earthquakes hide underground explosions? | LANL

See what happened in a test case involving a 1.7-ton buried explosion.

www.lanl.gov

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/115/4/1449/653431/The-Reduced-Detection-Rate-of-Signals-That-Are

So it could explain the restlessness every time a natural earthquake happens in Iran, it's not so easy to know that a underground nuclear test didnt happen if Iran is twisted enough.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

China probably going to give US a finger if Trump thinks China is just another larger size Japan and US is all powerful. He has no good cards and Americans can keep dreaming that China will just give in to US demands. Its Trump that is dying to come to China.

That would be the logical assumption... however, remember orange literally invited himself. He played the choking China card during his first administration and right of the bat in his second term. And this time he actually started choking Chinese access to energy... though China has largely been successful in electrifying it's economy by renewables, something that Pakistan did by happenstance and now both seem somewhat insulted by the shock... China of course did it deliberately while creating the largest reserves globally.

What we know are apparent public leverages... behind closed doors orange will present either his desperation or confidence in harming China as mere hyperbole or actuality. There is the TikTok example which China had publicly dug heels on and later relented and sold to a militant zionist to control its algorithm. He wants China to buy oil in dollars and directly from US... invest in US infrastructure and buy its treasuries. In return agree to make zionists its partners as an acceptable win win scenario... to undermine mideast and demand of Petro-Dollars by proxy.
As a consequence leave a softened mideast to its hyena, zion.

 

[VCheng]

Yeah, but there are more concealing ways like decoupled underground tests (detonation inside underground big caves).

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-underground-nuclear-explosions-hidden-earthquake.html

Can earthquakes hide underground explosions? | LANL

See what happened in a test case involving a 1.7-ton buried explosion.

www.lanl.gov

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/115/4/1449/653431/The-Reduced-Detection-Rate-of-Signals-That-Are

So it could explain the restlessness every time a natural earthquake happens in Iran, it's not so easy to know that a underground nuclear test didnt happen if Iran is twisted enough.

Please go ahead and have Iran conduct a test. It will be found out. 100%.

Besides, what does Iran gain from conducting a hidden test?