Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
Falcon29
Elite Member
Sunnis do not control south Lebanon, or Eastern Lebanon and borders with Syria. The army is certainly not 'Sunni'. It's ran by Christians, Shia's and Sunnis. Sunnis aren't allowed to arm themselves in Lebanon. Technically neither is Hezbollah but Hezbollah is too powerful for state to do anything about it.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
unconventional
Registered Member
To make Israel stop, he has to do more than “asking them nicely not to do it”.
lightning f57
Trusted Member
Wow Iran is establishing deterrence, the new folk in charge are not making the same mistakes.
Some trump cult followers still think the US won the war. Iran dictating terms and not signing the MOU like trump wants, and unilaterally responding to zionist terror doesn't by all accounts make the US come across as the victor.
But hey if this is what an American victory looks like then think everyone wins.
Some trump cult followers still think the US won the war. Iran dictating terms and not signing the MOU like trump wants, and unilaterally responding to zionist terror doesn't by all accounts make the US come across as the victor.
But hey if this is what an American victory looks like then think everyone wins.
Falcon29
Elite Member
It's not about what I want but what's realistic. We will see if Trump administration will press Israel to withdraw from Lebanon entirely or not.
Iran will struggle to enforce this equation without effective strikes on Israel but an effective strike on Israel could draw larger Israeli retailation and maybe even US backing for it.
Hezbollah would do same agreement from past if that doesn't work. Which is to pretend to withdraw from south Lebanon and cease fire from both sides. If that is on the table, it's likely to be accepted again as it was in Nov 2024.
We need to be careful from allowing ego to determine this outcome. Such as Iranian government and Hezbollah trying to humiliate Lebanese state or vice versa so one can say they achieved the ceasefire, etc .... It has potential to sabotage Iran's interests if it's true that the deal doesn't require Iran to hand over enriched uranium
Watandar
Trusted Member
I find these reports of the US offering money to call off the attacks and Iran rejecting unlikely, but I do think its superb propaganda from the Iranian side. Touche!
BananaRepublic
Trusted Member
Once Trump decided against ground invasion - any chance of bending Iran like the GCC became an impossibllity.
Furthermore, every week without an agreement with Iran tightens the noose around the US economy.
US still thinks Israel can be used to keep the Arabs in line - hence they’ll not slap down Israel.
Unless, ofcourse, Arabs come out and state they won’t be slaves to Israel.
So, imho, only the Arabs can break the vicious circle. Do they have the balls, though?
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
which part of what the Lebanese state has done in the last 2 years makes you think Hezbollah can work with them to achieve anything that goes against Israel's interests? the state is an ally of the US and explicitly works with Israel against Hezbollah. what you are saying is good in theory but not realistic at all.
BananaRepublic
Trusted Member
Falcon29
Elite Member
Let's be real here for a second. Iran announces response, gives time for Israel and US to prepare, then does a token strike at night like last time. US will inevitably shoot down some missiles using its Thaad and Patriot systems in Israel and Jordan.
That's not creating any leverage. It's tying Lebanon to opening/closure of Strait of Hormuz and any deal to be signed which is frustrating Trump and the world.
Iran don't have enough medium range and long range missiles to pound Israel. Nor launchers. It is not going to do anything different tonight.
Netanyahu on other hand wants to foil deal by complicating things with attacks on Lebanon. The current status quo is something Israel doesn't mind. Israel seems to rely on US fuel tankers to do sustained strikes on Iran. Netanyahu and Israel prefer continuation of naval blockade on Iran and US Navy securing Strait of Hormuz. The cost is on the US to main such operations which cost a ton. US doesn't want to keep doing that for indefinite duration. It also wants the Navy deployed elsewhere.
Hezbollah is trying to survive. It's going to try as much as possible to have Lebanon at forefront of negotiations. South Lebanon is under attack and IDF forces are advancing on the ground. Hezbollah may seek to draw Iran in until it works. It is acting now as Hamas was acting in Gaza. Has the potential to go well or has potential to draw Iran into more war.
It's highly dependent on what the US does going forward and if it does reign in Israel.
That's not creating any leverage. It's tying Lebanon to opening/closure of Strait of Hormuz and any deal to be signed which is frustrating Trump and the world.
Iran don't have enough medium range and long range missiles to pound Israel. Nor launchers. It is not going to do anything different tonight.
Netanyahu on other hand wants to foil deal by complicating things with attacks on Lebanon. The current status quo is something Israel doesn't mind. Israel seems to rely on US fuel tankers to do sustained strikes on Iran. Netanyahu and Israel prefer continuation of naval blockade on Iran and US Navy securing Strait of Hormuz. The cost is on the US to main such operations which cost a ton. US doesn't want to keep doing that for indefinite duration. It also wants the Navy deployed elsewhere.
Hezbollah is trying to survive. It's going to try as much as possible to have Lebanon at forefront of negotiations. South Lebanon is under attack and IDF forces are advancing on the ground. Hezbollah may seek to draw Iran in until it works. It is acting now as Hamas was acting in Gaza. Has the potential to go well or has potential to draw Iran into more war.
It's highly dependent on what the US does going forward and if it does reign in Israel.
ShotErrorKh
Registered Member
US Intelligence and military assesment still says Iran retains 80% of its missile and launcher capabilities prior to the ceasefire and have likely rearmed during it as well. Where are you getting these figures from lmao.
