Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[M. Sarmad]

I don't believe these current conflicts have the potential to escalate to the level of having to resort to using nukes.

Both Ukraine and Iran are wars of choice.

Its almost impossible for anybody to contemplate using nuke weapons in either of them.

And fat kim is no threat to anybody.

People carrying guns in violent encounters are 5 times more likely to end up getting shot as per studies... Not because guns cause violence in isolation, but because once everyone is armed and escalation starts, the situation becomes harder to control...

Same logic at the state level. Nukes may have prevented a world war for 80 years, but they don’t make war impossible, they just raise the stakes once deterrence fails...

India–Pakistan shows this in real terms, including 2019 and the May escalation last year... two nuclear powers with a long history of conflict, deep mistrust, and recurring crises... A conventional war could plausibly escalate to tactical nuclear use and, from there, potentially to a broader exchange. Not inevitable, but far from unthinkable...

Same applies to Iran–Israel or Russia–Ukraine if both sides had nukes...

 

[Lulldapull]

Nukes always have an effect, but maybe is not the effect you're expecting.

Main effect is deterrence, i.e: something that we dont see.

Nukes modify USA destabilization plans before it starts.

Without nukes, it would be no Ukraine war but direct Russia war.

Nukes never deterred Iran from retaliating.

Nukes never deterred Pakistan from retaliating.

Nukes never deterred Ukraine from retaliating.

And believe me, when and if the time comes, nukes will not deter Japan or SK from punking fat kim in no time.

 

[Meengla]

think abit.... it plays exactly into Iran´s hands. once the deal is signed Friday which according to Vance will include "Israel has to leave Lebanon" and they dont, it will create a even bigger rift between the US-Israel, Iran then has legitimate right to attack Israel again without US interference as Iran can say "Israel broke agreement you couldnt stop your dog (Israel) so we had to act"
lets see if Americans can calm down their israeli dog.
But whatever option Netanyahu now chooses he loses.
If he stays in Lebanon = Rift with the US , any Iranian attack will be seen as "Stopping israeli aggression".
if he leaves = entire israeli society will call him a loser again.
not good cards for Netanyahu right now.

Great post!
And that's how I see things are going to go forward. There is a reason the Israelis and the Israel Firsters are in a 'meltdown' state; Israel, or specifically, Netanyahu has lost in his ambitious plans of expansionism.
Iranians are waiting to sign the agreement with America and then...

 

[Lulldapull]

People carrying guns in violent encounters are 5 times more likely to end up getting shot as per studies... Not because guns cause violence in isolation, but because once everyone is armed and escalation starts, the situation becomes harder to control...

Same logic at the state level. Nukes may have prevented a world war for 80 years, but they don’t make war impossible, they just raise the stakes once deterrence fails...

India–Pakistan shows this in real terms, including 2019 and the May escalation last year... two nuclear powers with a long history of conflict, deep mistrust, and recurring crises... A conventional war could plausibly escalate to tactical nuclear use and, from there, potentially to a broader exchange. Not inevitable, but far from unthinkable...

Same applies to Iran–Israel or Russia–Ukraine if both sides had nukes...

I believe its evident that nukes have well n truly run their course and are now relegated to the status of legacy weapons.

Nobody is deterred anymore from retaliating even if one party possesses them.

Pretty obvious that the way India attacked us during Sindoor op.......they completely disregarded our nuke arsenal and went ahead with a massive attack. Our nuke deterrence does not exist and the same goes for India.

Nukes have failed to prevent conflict.

 

[Pakistan First]

GCC will never or more like can never trust the US again.

What you are talking about? UAE has said multiple times they are doubling down on US relations / support and alliance.

If you read the statements of Officials in Bahrain / UAE then you will get following picture:

That this attacks by Iran shows us, who's enemy and who's friend. US is friend and Iran is enemy. US based systems protected the countries. What would have happened if they didn't had any US THAAD or Patriots ? They say they intercepted most of attacks but all attacks obviously cannot be intercepted during saturation attacks.

I understand what people, analysts or everyone else thinks about how Gulf will react in future. But what really matters is What officials / leaders are thinking in these countries. What their policy is, because their decisions will derive the policy. Its absolutely clear that they are doubling down on US alliance. Atleast the countries which are part of Abraham accords.

so when you or anybody say "Gulf" you just can't put them all in one basket. They have different policies. KSA, Qatar and Oman have one policy but Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait has completely different policy.

Also as far as attacks on GCC are concerned, that has also made a permanent wedge between Iran and GCC. Attacking US bases was understandable. But attacking airports, hotels and other non-military targets has painted Iran as number one enemy for atleast few GCC countries. So I don't agree that all GCC countries will now look away from US. Nope, we will see more cooperation. Honestly, I think except Oman all other GCC countries will invest and pour more money on US products, especially THAAD and likes because they have seen effectiveness of those weapons with their own eyes.

 

[Optical216]

Great post!
And that's how I see things are going to go forward. There is a reason the Israelis and the Israel Firsters are in a 'meltdown' state; Israel, or specifically, Netanyahu has lost in his ambitious plans of expansionism.
Iranians are waiting to sign the agreement with America and then...

expansionism is not just an ideology of netanyahu, netanyahu is just the true representation of the israeli state. For true peace of the world israel must be wiped out the planet as a whole.

 

[Arash]

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9/11 for Monarchists

🎖🎗
Congratulations to the cuck prince !!!!! He got cucked twice in a row.

 

[Pakistan First]

And believe me, when and if the time comes, nukes will not deter Japan or SK from punking fat kim in no time.

Fat Kim is a leader in missile technology. Iran and Pakistan, we think we are missile powers. Yes we got impressive Ballistic missiles and especially Iran which has enormous underground infrastructure of bases for that. But Iran and Pakistan are literally novices/beginners in front of North Korea when it comes to Ballistic Missiles.

The size, speed and range of its newest missiles is comparable to US, Russia and Chinese ones. North Korea is no walkover. Look at the discipline of its military. Looks like a military of precise calculated Robots and not even humans.

 

[Lulldapull]

What you are talking about? UAE has said multiple times they are doubling down on US relations / support and alliance.

If you read the statements of Officials in Bahrain / UAE then you will get following picture:

That this attacks by Iran shows us, who's enemy and who's friend. US is friend and Iran is enemy. US based systems protected the countries. What would have happened if they didn't had any US THAAD or Patriots ? They say they intercepted most of attacks but all attacks obviously cannot be intercepted during saturation attacks.

I understand what people, analysts or everyone else thinks about how Gulf will react in future. But what really matters is What officials / leaders are thinking in these countries. What their policy is, because their decisions will derive the policy. Its absolutely clear that they are doubling down on US alliance. Atleast the countries which are part of Abraham accords.

so when you or anybody say "Gulf" you just can't put them all in one basket. They have different policies. KSA, Qatar and Oman have one policy but Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait has completely different policy.

Also as far as attacks on GCC are concerned, that has also made a permanent wedge between Iran and GCC. Attacking US bases was understandable. But attacking airports, hotels and other non-military targets has painted Iran as number one enemy for atleast few GCC countries. So I don't agree that all GCC countries will now look away from US. Nope, we will see more cooperation. Honestly, I think except Oman all other GCC countries will invest and pour more money on US products, especially THAAD and likes because they have seen effectiveness of those weapons with their own eyes.

Many Arab analysts also agree that when the moment of truth came, the US fled the scene and abandoned the Arabs.

It couldn't even save its own bases, how could it have saved the Arabs:

How US-Israel War On Iran Exposes Weaknesses In Gulf Missile Defense Systems – Analysis

By Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed As US President Barack Obama left his country’s embassy in Dublin in his fully armored

www.eurasiareview.com

 

[Jagga Badmash]

think abit.... it plays exactly into Iran´s hands. once the deal is signed Friday which according to Vance will include "Israel has to leave Lebanon" and they dont, it will create a even bigger rift between the US-Israel, Iran then has legitimate right to attack Israel again without US interference as Iran can say "Israel broke agreement you couldnt stop your dog (Israel) so we had to act"

lets see if Americans can calm down their israeli dog.

But whatever option Netanyahu now chooses he loses.

If he stays in Lebanon = Rift with the US , any Iranian attack will be seen as "Stopping israeli aggression".

if he leaves = entire israeli society will call him a loser again.

not good cards for Netanyahu right now.

A bit disagree with you about dog comment actually USA always acted like dog to Israel.

 

[Pakistan First]

Many Arab analysts also agree that when the moment of truth came, the US fled the scene and abandoned the Arabs.

It couldn't even save its own bases, how could it have saved the Arabs:

How US-Israel War On Iran Exposes Weaknesses In Gulf Missile Defense Systems – Analysis

By Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed As US President Barack Obama left his country’s embassy in Dublin in his fully armored

www.eurasiareview.com

Again read the official statements of Bahrain and UAE. There's no ambiguity. They are clearly saying they will double down on US alliance and they regard Iran as number one enemy.

As far as Iranian attacks are concerned, millions of people in GCC have seen with their own eyes almost daily the interceptor missiles firing off and then doing interceptions. All attacks cannot be intercepted but majority was intercepted, so saying that "Americans cannot defend" looks good for youtube videos. But they actually did defended whatever they could during the saturation attacks. Its like stopping a wave of bullets with your own wave of bullets. Ofcourse some will pass through. But just wonder what would have happened if there would be no US systems to protect arab cities ?

Many attacks were directed towards cities and not on the bases. US systems defended against all attacks.

 

[Lulldapull]

Fat Kim is a leader in missile technology. Iran and Pakistan, we think we are missile powers. Yes we got impressive Ballistic missiles and especially Iran which has enormous underground infrastructure of bases for that. But Iran and Pakistan are literally novices/beginners in front of North Korea when it comes to Ballistic Missiles.

The size, speed and range of its newest missiles is comparable to US, Russia and Chinese ones. North Korea is no walkover. Look at the discipline of its military. Looks like a military of precise calculated Robots and not even humans.

DPRK regiment has fought in Ukraine and Russia has extensively used theater NK ballistic missiles. DPRK soldiers performed poorly. Dozens were captured and the NK BM's were unreliable and inaccurate.

Russia had to devise depot level modification kits to their guidance to try to improve accuracy/ reliability.

However no further orders for NK equipment have been placed by the Russians. And the survivors of the DPRK soldiers have long returned home after losing thousands on the Donbas frontlines.

 

[Shags101]

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9/11 for Monarchists

Give it up to jd he’s still talking bs about regime change but if you want a person to put someone’s message out there you would put him in front instead of Trump

 

[Pakistan First]

DPRK regiment has fought in Ukraine and Russia has extensively used theater NK ballistic missiles. DPRK soldiers performed poorly. Dozens were captured and the NK BM's were unreliable and inaccurate.

Russia had to devise depot level modification kits to their guidance to try to improve accuracy/ reliability.

However no further orders for NK equipment have been placed by the Russians. And the survivors of the DPRK soldiers have long returned home after losing thousands on the Donbas frontlines.

Bro, when I say Iran and Pakistan are novices in front of NK when it comes to ballistic missiles is because of hard facts. Check their missiles, they are tracked by the US. They know and are aware of its capabilities, the altitude and speed which those missiles attains.

Also, both Iran and Pakistan have had their first true IRBMs almost copied from North Korean Ballistic missiles.
Here's AI saying: "North Korea provided the blueprints and technology for its Nodong and BM-25 missiles. Iran manufactured these under its own names"

and I know same for Ghauri for Pakistan's case. Apart from the software most of its hardware was NK origin. North Koreans advanced to ICBMs and MiRVs much earlier too.

Ukrainians are fighting bravely and they got support of Europe too, so can't just decide with one small North korean platoon doing not good as overall North korea as walkover. Its not. Its a massive missile and nuclear power.

 

[Lulldapull]

Bro, when I say Iran and Pakistan are novices in front of NK when it comes to ballistic missiles is because of hard facts. Check their missiles, they are tracked by the US. They know and are aware of its capabilities, the altitude and speed which those missiles attains.

Also, both Iran and Pakistan have had their first true IRBMs almost copied from North Korean Ballistic missiles.
Here's AI saying: "North Korea provided the blueprints and technology for its Nodong and BM-25 missiles. Iran manufactured these under its own names"

and I know same for Ghauri for Pakistan's case. Apart from the software most of its hardware was NK origin. North Koreans advanced to ICBMs and MiRVs much earlier too.

Ukrainians are fighting bravely and they got support of Europe too, so can't just decide with one small North korean platoon doing not good as overall North korea as walkover. Its not. Its a massive missile and nuclear power.

Oh bhai fat kim regularly tests his IRBM's near here in either the Sea of Japan or the korean straits and half them fail during launch or break apart mid flight or fall way short of target or miss their targets by hundreds of miles.

Nobody is scared of the DPRK military. They are really a very poor country on Chinese/ Russian life support.

All those ICBM tech you're talking about are some Topol TEL's/ missiles that Imam Putin has given to fat kim for helping him out in Ukraine.

About half of the North Korean missiles Russia fired at Ukraine flew off course and exploded in the air, official says

The failure rate of the North Korean ballistic missiles Russia is firing at Ukraine appears to be quite high, Ukraine's top prosecutor told Reuters.

www.businessinsider.com

Iran is like a century ahead of poor old NK technologically.

DPRK is a mere $4 billion dolla economy.

Billo Raani can purchase the DPRK if he ever got serious.......lol