Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Indos]

Pretty stupid policy, and for what cost ?

Benefit vs Cost Analyst ?

Now Iran cannot export their oil and Iran non oil trade is also affected while being continously bombed by US and bad relationship with its neighbor since Iran respond to US attack is to attack its neighbor (pretty unlogic)

While the world economy keep growing despite higher oil and gas price since Asian economy can still get both oil and gas from some other places

 

[ShapurII]

While the world economy keep growing despite higher oil and gas price since Asian economy can still get both oil and gas from some other places

This isn't completely true though. The world's GDP is expected to grow 1% less than early predictions by the IMF or the World Bank. I don't remember which, but I am certain about it.

And that's 1% in total. I mean, assuming the world's GDP was projected to grow by 2.6% before the war, now it's projected to grow by 1.6% or so. So, that's about a 30%-40% decrease in GDP growth for the entire world.

 

[HunksTopGuy]

The Gulf countries allowed the US to host bases for their own protection, not for attacks on any other country. How does that make these countries legitimate targets?

And the immense restraint being shown by these Gulf countries is beyond my imagination. However, there will eventually come a time when they start to retaliate. And these Gulf Countries have thousands of Bombs and Missiles for Ground operations using their state of their Air Forces. They can really take the war to Iran when they eventually decide enough is enough......and they can replenish weapons very quickly from all around the globe with the kind of money they have.

Why people like you want GCC countries to be targetted is also beyond me.

Gulfoids can't and won't do shit lol

 

[Indos]

This isn't completely true though. The world's GDP is expected to grow 1% less than early predictions by the IMF or the World Bank. I don't remember which, but I am certain about it.

And that's 1% in total. I mean, assuming the world's GDP was projected to grow by 2.6% before the war, now it's projected to grow by 1.6% or so. So, that's about a 30%-40% decrease in GDP growth for the entire world.

That is the growth change that the world can still tolerate while it can give huge damage to Iranian economy.

I dont think it is worth it for Iran to keep doing this. The most effected countries are those with close proximity to Middle East, including India and Pakistan.

While Indonesia stock market is still in positive territory since the last 6 days

 

[ShapurII]

That is the growth change that the world can still tolerate while it can give huge damage to Iranian economy.

I dont think it is worth it for Iran to keep doing this. The most effected countries are those with close proximity to Middle East, including India and Pakistan.

While Indonesia stock market is still in positive territory since the last 6 days

Nevertheless, it does have an impact on the world economy. Not as much as it impacts the Iranian economy for sure, no doubt about that, but still, it does have a meaningful impact on the world economy.

However, what other option does Iran have? Iran has only two options in my opinion. Fight the fight or surrender. I personally think Iran will eventually surrender because the situation is not going well for Iran. But the truth is that any long-lasting peace that involves Iran's surrender will not be possible without normalizing our ties with the US, and most importantly, complete normalization with Israel, even if it happens behind the scenes.

It is simply impossible for Iran to reach a deal with the US without recognizing the Israeli dominance in the region. Everything that is a threat to Israel has to be surrendered, most importantly Iran's resistance groups. And that's a tough pill to swallow for the Iranian regime whose entire character in the region has been defined by anti-Israel sentiments since the beginning and defines its security through a network of useless militias instead of relying on more realistic means of deterrence and national security.

 

[RescueRanger]

Iran most likely has no access to real-time data. That's why the number of American casualties is insanely low and Iran is unable to track USN assets to target them.

Its okay brother people just coming here posting nonsense about satellite data . Please don't take them seriously.

 

[Mav3rick]

Gulfoids can't and won't do shit lol

But for how long? Will they continue to take hits if the fighting is prolonged to many months?

 

[Indos]

Nevertheless, it does have an impact on the world economy. Not as much as it impacts the Iranian economy for sure, no doubt about that, but still, it does have a meaningful impact on the world economy.

However, what other option does Iran have? Iran has only two options in my opinion. Fight the fight or surrender. I personally think Iran will eventually surrender because the situation is not going well for Iran. But the truth is that any long-lasting peace that involves Iran's surrender will not be possible without normalizing our ties with the US, and most importantly, complete normalization with Israel, even if it happens behind the scenes.

It is simply impossible for Iran to reach a deal with the US without recognizing the Israeli dominance in the region. Everything that is a threat to Israel has to be surrendered, most importantly Iran's resistance groups. And that's a tough pill to swallow for the Iranian regime whose entire character in the region has been defined by anti-Israel sentiments since the beginning and defines its security through a network of useless militias instead of relying on more realistic means of deterrence and national security.

The previous MOU deal (under US interpretation) is already good, that will bring peace to the region, Iran-US better relationship, and also US VP is already accusing Israel over sabotaging the MOU deal. That is all favor to Iran already.

I dont understand Iran attacking ship within Oman Hormuz corridor, just let the ship pass. It is like 7 October stupid Hamas attack when Netanyahu was about to be kicked out, the 7 October attack then give life to Netanyahu political power and destroy Gaza

Controlling the Hormuz should not be sticking point for Iran. The adversary is USA, not Gulf States.

 

[OldTwilight]

The previous MOU deal (under US interpretation) is already good, that will bring peace to the region, Iran-US better relationship, and also US VP is already accusing Israel over sabotaging the MOU deal. That is all favor to Iran already.

I dont understand Iran attacking ship within Oman Hormuz corridor, just let the ship pass. It is like 7 October stupid Hamas attack when Netanyahu was about to be kicked out, the 7 October attack then give life to Netanyahu political power and destroy Gaza

Controlling the Hormuz should not be sticking point for Iran. The adversary is USA, not Gulf States.

As Jd Vance said , the deal was for USA to re-stock weapons and oil , they didn't have plans to honor it any way

 

[Aziqbal]

With respect what are you even talking about US Aircraft have been taking off from Israel and drones from Jordan for the past 3 days.

Yes I am talking about close targets

Like E3 awacs and refuelling tankers that were hit in Saudi

US has withdrawn from close proximity

Attacking Israel means a Israeli attack on Iran and I don’t think Iran wants that

Jordan has been hit but it’s not like it’s close to Iran like GCC

 

[ShapurII]

The previous MOU deal (under US interpretation) is already good, that will bring peace to the region, Iran-US better relationship, and also US VP is already accusing Israel over sabotaging the MOU deal. That is all favor to Iran already.

No, it is not because it offers Iran absolutely nothing. There is no point in giving the US all those concessions if Iran is not going to be given any sort of economic relief.

I dont understand Iran attacking ship within Oman Hormuz corridor, just let the ship pass. It is like 7 October stupid Hamas attack when Netanyahu was about to be kicked out, the 7 October attack then give life to Netanyahu political power and destroy Gaza

That's not a good idea either. Why should Iran let the US suffocate it and do nothing? Makes no sense. The US was already violating the MoU before Iran decided to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Also, the MoU was never meant to translate into a permanent deal for the reasons I have stated. It was meant to be used for buying time for both sides and drain some economic pressure that was building up.

Controlling the Hormuz should not be sticking point for Iran. The adversary is USA, not Gulf States.

The current issue is not whether Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz or not in the future. That's a distraction from the real issue. The real issue is that the US wants regime change at minimal cost. The US wants a regime in Iran that is not ideologically determined to create problems for Israel, and the Islamic Republic is trying to reach a deal similar to JCPOA 2.0 with the US, which is impossible because they do not have the cards anymore. So, the two sides want completely different things.

The Islamic Republic wants to remain the anti-Israel state that it is now and get sanctions relief like in the JCPOA, and the US wants to resolve the issue of regional security for Israel permanently. As long as the Islamic Republic refuses to address the issue of Israel's security and dominance, the US will not leave it alone.

 

[RescueRanger]

Yes I am talking about close targets

Like E3 awacs and refuelling tankers that were hit in Saudi

US has withdrawn from close proximity

Attacking Israel means a Israeli attack on Iran and I don’t think Iran wants that

Jordan has been hit but it’s not like it’s close to Iran like GCC

There are USAF aircraft flying from Al Udied... I'm sorry but you are misinformed.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

 

[Mav3rick]

The previous MOU deal (under US interpretation) is already good, that will bring peace to the region, Iran-US better relationship, and also US VP is already accusing Israel over sabotaging the MOU deal. That is all favor to Iran already.

I dont understand Iran attacking ship within Oman Hormuz corridor, just let the ship pass. It is like 7 October stupid Hamas attack when Netanyahu was about to be kicked out, the 7 October attack then give life to Netanyahu political power and destroy Gaza

Controlling the Hormuz should not be sticking point for Iran. The adversary is USA, not Gulf States.

The only possible explanation is that there are rogue elements in Iranaian Military Establishment which are not in favour of the MoU. Because there was absolutely no reason to attack the 3 ships which kickstarted all this fighting. Everything was going well, things were eventually leading to a stable region with Iran allowed to trade its oil, sanctions lifted and frozen assets released. And then some manman decided to derail it all by attacking 3 unarmed cargo ships in the strait of hormuz.

 

[Indos]

No, it is not because it offers Iran absolutely nothing. There is no point in giving the US all those concessions if Iran is not going to be given any sort of economic relief.


That's not a good idea either. Why should Iran let the US suffocate it and do nothing? Makes no sense. The US was already violating the MoU before Iran decided to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Also, the MoU was never meant to translate into a permanent deal for the reasons I have stated. It was meant to be used for buying time for both sides and drain some economic pressure that was building up.


The current issue is not whether Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz or not in the future. That's a distraction from the real issue. The real issue is that the US wants regime change at minimal cost. The US wants a regime in Iran that is not ideologically determined to create problems for Israel, and the Islamic Republic is trying to reach a deal similar to JCPOA 2.0 with the US, which is impossible because they do not have the cards anymore.

Regime change in Iran is just PR to US public and international community. What their real target is weakening Iran and bomb Iran nuclear capability. They have already done that.

Israel wants to keep Iran with current regime, just like Israel support the emergence of Hamas to kick PLO (that is supported by international community) out of Gaza and to radicalize Palestinian in both Gaza and West Bank. It is a good strategy against weak adversary under current geopolitial context where Western nations lead by Democratic system need good context to keep supporting Israel

Current regime is more likely to isolate Iranian and stop Iran economic growth.

Now we have Iran with leader has personal wound with US, I hope his thinking can outpower his emotional drives.