Hayabusa
Registered Member
You are still arguing against a point I never made. I never said Iran should remain quiet or abandon deterrence. My point is that Iran failed to convert its strongest moment of leverage into a favourable political outcome.
And no, Iran’s leverage is not permanent just because the Strait of Hormuz is beside it. The US is now intercepting tankers and choking Iranian exports while Iran can do little but watch. So much for leverage that apparently never increases or decreases.
The US could use a ceasefire to rearm, but so could Iran. If negotiations were pointless, why did Iran sign the MoU, and why is Pezeshkian still offering reciprocal compliance?
Iran successfully avoided immediate surrender. The IRGC then mistook survival for superiority and squandered the advantage it had created.
Your argument is based on assumption that it will be the strongest leverage it will ever get. What you failed to see is that it is indirectly holding the world hostage through oil consumption.
Despite more than 6 months of fighting, US is still not able to break that leverage, either through economic sanctions or military actions. Another point that you also failed to see is that Iran has time on its side, while Trump does not.
If Iran could wait for Carter to leave before negotiating for the release of hostages between 79 to 81, I don't see why it cannot do it this time around again. History has a way of repeating itself, and as long as Iran has not surrendered, the opportunity to convert it into a favourable political outcome is always there.
Signing an MoU doesn't exactly means weakness, the way you are trying to frame it. Iran is utilising both diplomacy and deterrence to achieve its goals here. No country survives a conflict relying on just one method. The only difference is Iran was smart enough to know that US will never hold onto it's end of the deal, and will go back on it. Time in the end was right, and US did call off the negotiations.
So did Iran lost a lot of leverage? No because it was bound to happen with Trump at the helm. He is not trustworthy and eventually Nethanyahu would be the one advising him to call off.





