Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mulj]

declaring war on global trade is not a good solution

if you have nuclear umbrella it is if not any other option.
i understand your concerns as country treading wool carefully but if you are getting isolated more beyond current conditions then it would be yours probably only option for self preservation as current country or to bend the knee to the west.

 

[Developereo]

you can not have both, in the current world i would prefer obtaining nuclear weapon, once you obtain you can solve isolation issue with isolation of oil flow from hormuz if they choose to choke you, north korea does not have that option.

US doesn't really need Middle East oil. The US learned from the 1970s and has become fully self sufficient, even a net exporter of oil.

How much petroleum does the United States import and export? - Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

In 2023, the United States imported about 8.51 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 86 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels. Crude oil imports of about 6.48 million b/d accounted for about 76% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports.

In 2023, the United States exported about 10.15 million b/d of petroleum to 173 countries and 3 U.S. territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands). Crude oil exports of about 4.06 million b/d accounted for 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -1.64 million b/d, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million b/d in 2023.

The country that will suffer most from Middle East oil problems is China.

 

[UKBengali]

Banking on the collapse of Western world order is not a wise strategy. As history has shown us, empires can take centuries to fall after their “critical peak”.

Everyone says China will steal the glory. But ignore that by 2100, Chinese population will drop to below 700M.

With AGI, AI, and quantum computers, the future powers are quite unclear. The first to be able to weaponize AGI and automate large parts of their economy before the population death spiral will likely come out on top.

Again this is assuming WW3 doesn’t occur in within the next 10 years

No one is "banking" on collapse of the west but as China and the rest of the "Global South" rises then the relative power of the west declines.

With such an interconnected world, falls and rises can happen much faster than in the past when sometimes contemporary superpowers of their day like Rome and China pretty much had next to nil interactions with each other.

An "inflection point' will most likely happen in the 2030s when China has created an alternative technological and economic system, something the Soviet Union never managed. This will also allow others like Indonesia and Turkey the "breathing room" to develop to their full potential during the next 1-2 decades as the west will have no power to "contain" their development.

We will have to see at what point the west is just another powerful pole in the world but I cannot see them "hanging on" to their current dominant power beyond the 2030s.

 

[UKBengali]

US doesn't really need Middle East oil. The US learned from the 1970s and has become fully self sufficient, even a net exporter of oil.

How much petroleum does the United States import and export? - Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

In 2023, the United States imported about 8.51 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 86 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels. Crude oil imports of about 6.48 million b/d accounted for about 76% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports.

In 2023, the United States exported about 10.15 million b/d of petroleum to 173 countries and 3 U.S. territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands). Crude oil exports of about 4.06 million b/d accounted for 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -1.64 million b/d, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million b/d in 2023.

The country that will suffer most from Middle East oil problems is China.

US companies are actively involved in oil exploration and drilling in the ME.

Also its most important allies like Europe, Japan/S Korea are heavily dependent on oil and gas from the ME.

US would be affected hugely by disruption to oil and gas flows from the ME.

 

[mulj]

US doesn't really need Middle East oil. The US learned from the 1970s and has become fully self sufficient, even a net exporter of oil.

How much petroleum does the United States import and export? - Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

In 2023, the United States imported about 8.51 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 86 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels. Crude oil imports of about 6.48 million b/d accounted for about 76% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports.

In 2023, the United States exported about 10.15 million b/d of petroleum to 173 countries and 3 U.S. territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands). Crude oil exports of about 4.06 million b/d accounted for 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -1.64 million b/d, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million b/d in 2023.

The country that will suffer most from Middle East oil problems is China.

i know then let those bitches suffer too both of them first ones for their double faced policy which caused huge problems for middle east along the slavery, second one to suffer because they are pure bussiness transactionalists in political relations, so china could avoid that if they show that they care providing tech and weapons to their main oil supplier.

 

[UKBengali]

i know then let those bitches suffer too both of them first ones for their double faced policy which caused huge problems for middle east along the slavery, second one to suffer because they are pure bussiness transactionalists in political relations, so china could avoid that if they show that they care providing tech and weapons to their main oil supplier.

China for its very survival and future as a sovereign nation will actively aid Iran if the US attacks it.

This China doing a "deal" with the US makes little sense as the US is actively involved in trying to contain China and the main Chinese focus is to overthrow US-western dominance as soon as possible.

 

[Developereo]

i know then let those bitches suffer too both of them first ones for their double faced policy which caused huge problems for middle east along the slavery, second one to suffer because they are pure bussiness transactionalists in political relations, so china could avoid that if they show that they care providing tech and weapons to their main oil supplier.

The entire West supports Israel. Muslim countries don't have too many friends. The last thing we need is to create more enemies, .e.g China, by cutting off their oil and destroying their economy.

 

[Developereo]

US companies are actively involved in oil exploration and drilling in the ME.

Also its most important allies like Europe, Japan/S Korea are heavily dependent on oil and gas from the ME.

US would be affected hugely by disruption to oil and gas flows from the ME.

US can ramp up domestic oil production and will be more than happy to replace the ME as oil supplier. Look how the US replaced a large part of Russian oil and gas for Europe.

The US + Canada is an entire continent and they have enormous natural resources.

 

[mulj]

The entire West supports Israel. Muslim countries don't have too many friends. The last thing we need is to create more enemies, .e.g China, by cutting off their oil and destroying their economy.

well aware of that but i am trying to look from realistic perspective which is that Iran in particular is last man standing as proper and organized state with principles and policies non aligned with west among muslim nations. so i would exclude your input about muslims nations, there is no such thing at the moment, those are scattered "emirates" fully subserviant to the west and easily managed, those which are not are irrelevant for wider geo political picture.
if you want to rectify that reality let pakistan for example says attack and further isolation on iran is attack on us too, hope you now get a gist what i am saying which is there are no friends of muslim states because muslims states are not friends among them self and for itself and no one will not consider friendship with actors who are actually entities without their own agency and strong principles.

 

[UKBengali]

US can ramp up domestic oil production and will be more than happy to replace the ME as oil supplier. Look how the US replaced a large part of Russian oil and gas for Europe.

The US + Canada is an entire continent and they have enormous natural resources.

No they did not.

Most of the "lost" Russian oil just got re-routed through Indian refineries.

Also I am not sure whether some European countries are still buying Russian LNG as was reported in 2023.

In terms of "ramping up" it takes years to do this and many 10s of billions of US dollars.

Extra 1 million barrels a day is nothing(assuming it all went to Europe) to the many millions of barrel that Russia was directing exporting to Europe before Ukraine war.

https://www.bicmagazine.com/downloads/26729/download/U.S.%20crude%20oil%20exports%20reached%20a%20record%20high%20in%20first%20half%20of%202023.svg?cb=a7a4e708bcbdbcbe34a15f3e3e388a0b&w=1200

 

[Developereo]

No they did not.

Most of the "lost" Russian oil just got re-routed through Indian refineries.

Also I am not sure whether some European countries are still buying Russian LNG as was reported in 2023.

In terms of "ramping up" it takes years to do this and many 10s of billions of US dollars.

Extra 1 million barrels a day is nothing(assuming it all went to Europe) to the many millions of barrel that Russia was directing exporting to Europe before Ukraine war.

https://www.bicmagazine.com/downloads/26729/download/U.S.%20crude%20oil%20exports%20reached%20a%20record%20high%20in%20first%20half%20of%202023.svg?cb=a7a4e708bcbdbcbe34a15f3e3e388a0b&w=1200

View attachment 77719

Well, Trump would like nothing better than to lift sanctions on Russia and get Russia to replace any ME oil shortfall.

 

[jauk]

Sadly, destroying Iran's nuclear capability is one of the strongest points of agreement between Israel, US, Europe, and the GCC.

Correct! However, irrelevant. Dreams are nice. Practice not so much.

 

[UKBengali]

Well, Trump would like nothing better than to lift sanctions on Russia and get Russia to replace any ME oil shortfall.

Russia already supplies Europe via India.

 

[lightning f57]

I personally think there is abit of over reaction and hysteria with Trump coming back to the WH

Yes his unpredictable, he says allot mostly lies and wants to be a strong man who loves a deal. If you can understand his mentality then it should be used to ones advantage.

I know its a unpopular move but I think direct talks with Trump may give a positive result for Iran. The alternative is yahu in his ear drumming war.

Even war is not straight forward. The conflict in Ukraine wont end unless Putin gets his way, which is ensuring Ukraine remains neutral and they will want to hold onto territory(Donbas, Crimea). No matter how much Putin and Trump respect each others hard man look, Russia will unlikely compromise on that.

Secondly, a peace treaty and for Russia to come back in the western fold could take years. Russia can't dump its current allies so Iran needs to leverage from them the tech they need tor their defence.

Finally oil embargos on Iran will also be tricky, India, China for example dispite western sanctions continued to buy Russian oil. Russia is much more sanctioned today than Iran. With Trump loving tarrifs like its a new 21st century discovery you will see high inflation in Europe and the US, most major european economies have recession jitters already, cutting Iranian oil from the market will push up prices further, increase interest rates and reduce overall GDP around the world. The Europeans will be divided on sanctions along with much of the world for this reason.

Trump will huff and puff and pressurise, if Iranian leaders dont want to engage him then they need to take a tough line as well including in retaliating to Israeli provocations.

Trump only respects strongmen.

 

[jauk]

I personally think there is abit of over reaction and hysteria with Trump coming back to the WH

Yes his unpredictable, he says allot mostly lies and wants to be a strong man who loves a deal. If you can understand his mentality then it should be used to ones advantage.

I know its a unpopular move but I think direct talks with Trump may give a positive result for Iran. The alternative is yahu in his ear drumming war.

Even war is not straight forward. The conflict in Ukraine wont end unless Putin gets his way, which is ensuring Ukraine remains neutral and they will want to hold onto territory(Donbas, Crimea). No matter how much Putin and Trump respect each others hard man look, Russia will unlikely compromise on that.

Secondly, a peace treaty and for Russia to come back in the western fold could take years. Russia can't dump its current allies so Iran needs to leverage from them the tech they need tor their defence.

Finally oil embargos on Iran will also be tricky, India, China for example dispite western sanctions continued to buy Russian oil. Russia is much more sanctioned today than Iran. With Trump loving tarrifs like its a new 21st century discovery you will see high inflation in Europe and the US, most major european economies have recession jitters already, cutting Iranian oil from the market will push up prices further, increase interest rates and reduce overall GDP around the world.

Trump will huff and puff and pressurise, if Iranian leaders dont want to engage him then they need to take a tough line as well including in retaliating to Israeli provocations.

Trump only respects strongmen.

Hysteria is a good word. Seems this group is entirely sensitive to where the wind blows. It's quite fascinating.