Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Khorasan Black Flags]

It is a bad deal, and Iran's leadership has a bad strategy, perhaps isn't even fully invested in the well-being of the nation. If it was, it would not compromise on deterrence, especially nuclear deterrence.

The reason Iran went down this path of indecision and half-hearted effort vis-a-vis the nuclear issues is manifold. Foremost, there is a large contingent of Iranian politicians, tied to neoliberal oligarchs in Iran that have ties to the West, to banking elites, and have many family members and moreover property in the West, and these priorities matter more to them than the wealth and well-being of Iran. This is what people mean when they say Iran's system is corrupt. Much like the Shah's family pilfered the nation, The Islamic Republic's liberal wing is exactly like this as well.

Secondly, these receptive elements are compromised by Western intelligence agencies. There are willing avenues for compromise in Iran because of the nature of the system- the infighting, the corruption, the lack of opportunity, the lack of economic power- all of these make it lucrative for Iranians up and down the ladder of power to make deals with enemies of Iran for their own gain. Why do you think so many Iranian people who get a doctorate or engineering degree go to Canada or the USA?

Thirdly, Khamenei is a balancer. He's not an ideologue. He has to keep up appearances while playing a game of chess to ensure his power and that of his clan/cronies are intact, and this means playing off the various centers of power within the system against each other. He knows the liberals have their ties to Western intelligence, and they have their contingency plans should the hardliners take over, or worse, should Khamenei decide to threaten their interests. Likewise, he knows the hardliners have ways to assert themselves, too. He has to balance his power and the sustainability of the system as a whole in this context, while also ensuring society is ordered and stable enough for it all not to go to hell in a handbasket. This creates a situation of deadlock, inertia, malaise and decay.

Fourthly, masses in general are unthinking, self-interested, and suggestible. There are many Iranians in Iran right now, most of which do not know a think about regional or international politics, or how to govern a country or manage an economy. There are Iranian politicians in survival mode, thinking of the next ten or twenty years. Iran's enemies think of the next 100 or 200 years. In the case of Israel, its messianic ruling elite thinks in terms of 1,000 years. Your average Iranian citizen is thinking of bread right now, a little hal-kardan, and maybe a nicer house or apartment. The Islamic Republic should have thrown them the bone of the non-mandatory hijab and other unimportant amenities to keep them satisfied, but it couldn't- hardliners saw that as a dangerous precedent, liberals saw it as an opportunity to demand more concessions, uproot the existing order and place themselves at the top. The key here is: no one in the system is thinking about Iran. They are thinking about their goals, their power, their assets, and their foreign backers. And the Iranian people themselves- the majority- are not thinking about the future of the country. If they were, they'd make common cause with the many in the armed forces and other government institutions that are seeing the country flinging at high speed toward oblivion and are frustrated. This is because sanctions, foreign influence, and the immiseration of daily life under mismanagement of the Islamic Republic has rendered people apathetic, helpless, and hopeless. They'd rather abandon the sinking ship that try to plug the holes.

I do not digress, I make a central point here. Neither the leaders nor the people of Iran are invested enough in a real way into the nation. This nuclear issue would have been a no-brainer, a done deal by now. Leadership decided to use it as a bargaining chip and not gone for it. This is because they aren't serious about the nation, caught up in the squabbles of their own purposes and intra-system conflict. "How much can we gain from the West?" At some point, you realize there's no point to this, enough damage has been done and you cannot crawl out of the hole- at some point, you decide the best and only choice is to go full-speed toward the nuclear weapon and at least attain the deterrence your people have suffered for decades for.

Accepting the deal was bad for Iran by all counts. Maybe not "bad" if you think in the short-term, or are divorced from the reality of Iran's enemies and geopolitical position, it's history even. But in the long stretch and at the root, accepting any deal that puts Iran's deterrence and survival on hold for any stretch of time is a bad deal, and it's a testament to the failures of Iran's system.

@Musings @Waz this guy is permanently banned @KHORSHIDSIYAH1488

 

[Urvan]

@Musings @Waz this guy is permanently banned @KHORSHIDSIYAH1488

Is this how you are in life/work?

You disagree with someone and you have to figuratively kill them? What happened to being mature? What happened to accepting that life doesn't always go by your terms?

I'm not here to argue with you, and you should be better than to try to delete someone for not getting along with you. You're not entitled the agreement or appreciation of others. I don't have to like you, and you don't have to like me. The difference between us is that I don't care about that. I accept that. You care, you care a lot. So much so that the sight of someone who you don't like and who doesn't like you threatens you to the point that you have to force everyone else to tend to your emotions.

@Persian Gulf please set this guy straight, he's a detriment to this community as a whole- not because of his ideology, but because of his inability to be mature. @Musings and @Waz I implore you to apply an even hand and stick to the spirit of moderation.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes, but that isn't leaving the NPT. It's violating the NPT. As soon as Iran does that, they will understand that Iran wants to build the bomb and Iran's case will be immediately referred to the UN Security Council.

this is in response to full snapback of all UNSC resolutions and sanctions

so that in case it is a response to Iran's case returning to the UNSC already

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

Is this how you are in life/work?

You disagree with someone and you have to figuratively kill them? What happened to being mature? What happened to accepting that life doesn't always go by your terms?

I'm not here to argue with you, and you should be better than to try to delete someone for not getting along with you. You're not entitled the agreement or appreciation of others. I don't have to like you, and you don't have to like me. The difference between us is that I don't care about that. I accept that. You care, you care a lot. So much so that the sight of someone who you don't like and who doesn't like you threatens you to the point that you have to force everyone else to tend to your emotions.

@Persian Gulf please set this guy straight, he's a detriment to this community as a whole- not because of his ideology, but because of his inability to be mature. @Musings and @Waz I implore you to apply an even hand and stick to the spirit of moderation.

don't waste bandwidth nor make multiple IDs

@Musings @Waz

 

[Urvan]

don't waste bandwidth nor make multiple IDs

@Musings @Waz

You're not the boss of this forum.

Understand that. People don't have to like each other. You leave me alone, I leave you alone. You started this simply because I doubted the claim that Iran has tens of thousands of missiles and has nuclear submarines (which was proven, the submarine in the picture was a U.S. submarine).

Take a step back and reflect on whether you want this to be your reputation.

 

[LeGenD]

PDaf logic detected!! Not worth responding to. @Raj-Hindustani these are the types of posts that make pdf low quality forum.

Let's recheck your predictive assessments in here, here, and here. You claimed that Hezbollah has destroyed a lot of IDF infrastructure in northern Israel and Hezbollah will finish off the remainder of IDF in South Lebanon and win the war and maybe execute Netanyahu or something. Did "really sexy toys like Fateh-110s" make any difference?

Compare that with my predictive assessment in here. Who had a realistic take on this theme and was spot on? Logically and common sense wise, unrealistic and incorrect views make PDF a low quality forum, my dear.

US tried fought for 20 years in Afghanistan, spent ; trillion dollars , lost, Do they want to try another 20 Years against Houthis ? When will Us learn lessons?

War can be a very complex and risky undertaking in some regions where people understand how to plan and fight. However, war-fighting conditions and American priorities also vary from region to region. American priority in Afghanistan was to cripple the Al-Qaeda Network and reduce its support base in the region and this objective is met and Trump refused to rebuild Afghanistan. The US was more interested in reshaping the political landscape of Iraq and Libya while conducting COIN in Afghanistan.

The US-led forces fought and crippled much larger and better equipped forces in the Middle East than Taliban groups in Afghanistan such as Iraq under Saddam (Operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait from Iraq in 1991, and Operation Iraqi Freedom to dismantle Saddam setup in Iraq in the (2003 - 2010) period), and hostile ISIL groups in the Middle East that were attempting to overwhelm Kurd factions and topple post-Saddam Iraqi government (Operation Inherent Resolve).

The US doesn't bring much of its power to bear in a regional conflict unless up against a large military force such as Iraqi military in 1991 (Operation Desert Storm). Even in the ongoing operation against Houthi, we see a single carrier strike group (CSG) being involved. Houthi are a formidable regional power as I have pointed out here but it is up to American leadership to decide how to deal with it. The US has many options on the table but WE still see a limited-scale operation in Yemen.

Nevertheless, who wants to fight the US and provoke a larger response from it in war? Iran seems to have a well-developed military force for sure but read this. People have feelings and many are rightfully concerned that a war with powerful countries can bring ruin.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

PDaf logic detected!! Not worth responding to. @Raj-Hindustani these are the types of posts that make pdf low quality forum.

Not sure what you meant, but I personally rate Israel's intelligence services very highly—they're extremely effective, especially during wartime.

Last time Israel responded to Iran, many members on PDF dismissed it, claiming there was little to no damage. But from what I’ve seen and understood, it was a very successful operation. It exposed serious vulnerabilities and served as a warning to Iran about how exposed they really are.

That said, as long as the U.S. continues backing Israel, they’ll maintain an upper hand. But if that support ever fades, Israel could struggle—not just against Iran, but even to maintain its own security and survival.

And I am agreed with mr. @LeGenD on his posts.

 

[Garcia Sea]

As the case of Ukraine shows, the Western bloc, which usually touts human rights, can, in times of war, seize full control and abduct citizens from street corners, throwing them into front-line trenches and forcing them to commit suicide.
Soldiers who try to flee are mercilessly executed by drone units.
Each individual's position is monitored via GPS, and movement schedules are dictated by the minute, treating soldiers as mere pawns to be callously discarded.
Even civilian economic power is fully mobilized for war.
On the other hand, non-Western countries that have been infiltrated and dominated by Western liberal ideology are extremely vulnerable.
Like the Assad regime, they cannot exercise strong authority, are intimidated by public opinion, and easily abandon the fight. Governments lack the courage to punish deserters, leaving front-line soldiers feeling unfairly singled out, causing them to flee en masse, leading to quick collapse.
It is difficult to defend a nation without breaking away from the West's false liberal ideology.

 

[ShapurII]

this is in response to full snapback of all UNSC resolutions and sanctions

so that in case it is a response to Iran's case returning to the UNSC already

Yes, but only sanctions will be reinstated in that case. That way, our case will probably be considered for Article 42 of Chapter VII of the UN charter. This is probably one of the reasons that the IR is so hesitant to make nuclear weapons. It's because they are afraid, or probably know China or Russia would not veto such a resolution.

 

[ShapurII]

wrong enriching 3.5% uranium to higher percentage wont take that much time

You have shown your lack of understanding of the nuclear issue times and times again.

I did the calculations for you. It takes 7 years to go from natural uranium (0.73%) to LEU (3.5%) with 10,000 SWU UF6/year. Go see it again and learn something.

 

[Tijani]

Trump and BiBi also think its a bad deal.
its a bad deal only if Iran want to make nukes but as Iran times and times stated it has to plan to make any nuke I'd like to knew why you think its a bad deal?

I already posted why I thought it is a bad deal but @Bharatah explained it way more eloquently.

Post in thread 'Iran - "Israel"/US Conflict: News, Updates and Discussion' https://defencepk.com/forums/thread...news-updates-and-discussion.14927/post-605295

Post in thread 'Iran - "Israel"/US Conflict: News, Updates and Discussion' https://defencepk.com/forums/thread...news-updates-and-discussion.14927/post-604344

 

[ShapurII]

Let's recheck your predictive assessments in here, here, and here. You claimed that Hezbollah has destroyed a lot of IDF infrastructure in northern Israel and Hezbollah will finish off the remainder of IDF in South Lebanon and win the war and maybe execute Netanyahu or something. Did "really sexy toys like Fateh-110s" make any difference?

Compare that with my predictive assessment in here. Who had a realistic take on this theme and was spot on? Logically and common sense wise, unrealistic and incorrect views make PDF a low quality forum, my dear.


War can be a very complex and risky undertaking in some regions where people understand how to plan and fight. However, war-fighting conditions and American priorities also vary from region to region. American priority in Afghanistan was to cripple the Al-Qaeda Network and reduce its support base in the region and this objective is met and Trump refused to rebuild Afghanistan. The US was more interested in reshaping the political landscape of Iraq and Libya while conducting COIN in Afghanistan.

The US-led forces fought and crippled much larger and better equipped forces in the Middle East than Taliban groups in Afghanistan such as Iraq under Saddam (Operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait from Iraq in 1991, and Operation Iraqi Freedom to dismantle Saddam setup in Iraq in the (2003 - 2010) period), and hostile ISIL groups in the Middle East that were attempting to overwhelm Kurd factions and topple post-Saddam Iraqi government (Operation Inherent Resolve).

The US doesn't bring much of its power to bear in a regional conflict unless up against a large military force such as Iraqi military in 1991 (Operation Desert Storm). Even in the ongoing operation against Houthi, we see a single carrier strike group (CSG) being involved. Houthi are a formidable regional power as I have pointed out here but it is up to American leadership to decide how to deal with it. The US has many options on the table but WE still see a limited-scale operation in Yemen.

Nevertheless, who wants to fight the US and provoke a larger response from it in war? Iran seems to have a well-developed military force for sure but read this. People have feelings and many are rightfully concerned that a war with powerful countries can bring ruin.

Believe me, other than a few trolls or brainwashed Basijis who have voluntarily buried their heads deep in the sand, everyone in Iran knows that a war with Iran may have tens of side effects and consequences for the world and the US, but one side effect for Iran is certain and beyond doubt: Iran's infrastructure will get flattened to dirt.

So, other than some Nigerian troll that isn't even an Iranian and some people who think Iran has wonder weapons that nobody else has, nobody in Iran, particularly scientists and professional soldiers believe that we can, or we should, take on the US forces in a war. The best we could do is bring them down with us by bringing the Western economy to a halt after Iran has been bombed to sh*t. Sure, the US may cease to exist as we know it after the war with Iran, but Iran will be hit much harder.

And let's not forget that whatever happens, the playground is Iran and the Middle East. So, at the end of the day, the destruction will be all ours in the Middle East. The US will only pay a huge economic price, and probably tens of thousands of lost soldiers (if the Ayatollahs man up and start being p*ssies). But the price will be huge for Iran and the Middle East. It could reshape the region for decades even worse than the Iraq war in 2003.

 

[OldTwilight]

even Scott Ritter is saying either just give up nuclear program or just publicly test nukes .... ( which I am suggesting for more than 13 years (

min 45 to 47

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bunch of cowards don't have balls to go either way

 

[StrategicBear]

Believe me, other than a few trolls or brainwashed Basijis who have voluntarily buried their heads deep in the sand, everyone in Iran knows that a war with Iran may have tens of side effects and consequences for the world and the US, but one side effect for Iran is certain and beyond doubt: Iran's infrastructure will get flattened to dirt.

So, other than some Nigerian troll that isn't even an Iranian and some people who think Iran has wonder weapons that nobody else has, nobody in Iran, particularly scientists and professional soldiers believe that we can, or we should, take on the US forces in a war. The best we could do is bring them down with us by bringing the Western economy to a halt after Iran has been bombed to sh*t. Sure, the US may cease to exist as we know it after the war with Iran, but Iran will be hit much harder.

And let's not forget that whatever happens, the playground is Iran and the Middle East. So, at the end of the day, the destruction will be all ours in the Middle East. The US will only pay a huge economic price, and probably tens of thousands of lost soldiers (if the Ayatollahs man up and start being p*ssies). But the price will be huge for Iran and the Middle East. It could reshape the region for decades even worse than the Iraq war in 2003.

Does Iran have any atmospheric weapons that can ignite Yellowstone Supervolcano in the US? (since you mentioned about "the destruction will be all ours in the Middle East")

 

[ShapurII]

Does Iran have any atmospheric weapons that can ignite Yellowstone Supervolcano in the US? (since you mentioned about "the destruction will be all ours in the Middle East")

Yeah, we also have space lasers that can target aliens outside of the Milky Way.