Khamenei wont do anything. He is an obsolete petty politician in disguise of a religious cleric who is rather more interested in pitting political factions against each other so that him as a "balancer" and his extended clan stays in power. Thats what he has been doing for the past 20 years at-least ever since Ahmadinejad intentionally opened his mouth to invite Jewish roar over Iranian nuclear program (first attempt to self-politicise the nuclear program). Khamenei and his Majles + Advisor cronies will rather see Iran burn to ashes if it takes that to keep them in power in name of "principles" then take hard decisions that will ensure national security. I LMOA'ed so hard a week ago when old fool Shamkhani came out saying Khamenei had nothing to do with the letter sent to Trump right after Araghchi had already sent it to through Oman. Its funny, these people still think it matters if they can blame reformists and save "Khamenei" from public disgrace. For them childish domestic political conflicts matter more than national security. Weak men ... this is what this Marxist-Mullah alliance revolution has given us ... weak men.
These people never understood how nuclear armed countries tie up their national security to nuclear weapons and never ever bargain over it again. They rapidify the program and be done with it quickly and forget about it be it superpowers or bankrupt pariah states. Instead to fuel their domestic politics in Iran, Khamenei by deliberately slowing it, allowed it to be politicised internationally so that they can use it domestically by creating factions/power groups that they can safely pit against each other. Result, Iranian "national security" is now on the "talks" table with the enemy, it is now at the gunsight of the same enemy that is willing to burn Iran to ashes any moment now. Signing NPT, Fatwa, allowing IAEA (spy arm in disguise) in, allowing talks over nuclear program, forbidding open tests, forbidding ICBMs, getting in intersemitic wars thousands of KM away from Iran, list goes on and on. Khamenei is Fateh Ali Shah Qajar reborn. Fateh Ali was a war general, a warrior and effective ruler in his early days but later became a stupid clown whose weakness costed Iran its entire Transcaucasia including half of our blood land of Azerbaijan from which both Fateh Ali and Khamenei themselves came out, what an Irony. Khamenei led Iran had proper opportunities to nuke-up Iran some ~30 years ago, instead they focused on sacrificing Iranian national security over politics disguised as "principles" that brought nothing to iran except crippling sanctions, economy halved, society ruined, deterence gone, and now we might even see Iranian nuclear sites getting bombed.
If they had actual balls, what Iran should do right now:
- Test 6-8 Tactical fission devices. Iran currently holds ~300 KG of 60% enriched U235 eough for 30-40 tactical devices. This can go easily to WGU using IR-4M cascades or if IR-8 numbers have increased. Thats what IAEA and we know in public, if there are secret micro WGU sites in Iran like few journalists believe then its time to use them. Test these devices, announce tactical deployment all across the IRGCS and Artesh assets so that American bombing few buildings become meaningless.
- Ensure international community that Iran wont use them and is backing out of Levant and Penninsular Semite holes, purely focusing on its own border security only and thats what nuclear deployment is for.
- Test IRBM+ICBM. K-4 and Sejjil can reach ~3000 KM, loft them at max apogee to increase range in IRBM domains. Ghaem 100, Qassed are TEL launched ICBMS in disguise of SLVs, test them with RVs. Put KS-I/II and Fattah-1/II hypersonic missiles under F-4E/D/SU-24MK/30SM/35S belly and show it as a battle tested nuclear strike weapon, something enemy failed to stop before.
- Aggresively build Soleimani LEO constellation instead of one SLV per few months.
- Focus on developing oil sector to extremes and tie up global east_west money to Iranian oil so their paper currency gets dependent upon Iranian hydrocarbon. Someone wrote a beautiful article years ago that how it was Saudi oil that gave rise to American petro dollar and turned US into a super power. Iran can replicate this strategy with rising powers of BRICS (Not BRICS itself, its a benign group) if leadership in Iran is willing to do so. Iranian GDP PPP naturally without sanctions or any foreign debt is 4-5 trillian USD. Trumps antics with tariffs will open doors to countries seeking trade in non-USD medium and whichever currency has massive Iranian hydrocarbon behind it will take the lead.
- Re-shape Iranian society, stop the brain drain. Iran produces worlds 4th-5th largest STEM grad workforce, our people power top STEM workforces of North America, EU where they are even more educated and high earners than local whites. Stop them in Iran by providing safe public, public-private, private sector opportunities. Iran currently ranks higher in STEM R&D output then entire EU except Germany. Instead of hosting Hamas who attacked IRGC in Syria, host tech corps, expos, tech parks and create markets of Iranian products outside Iran.