Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[OldTwilight]

Reformists are the scapegoat. The real problem goes much deeper than just one party.

Ahmadinejad was the last president of Iran that his actions, even though very controversial, made sense.

Ahmadinejad become narcist in his last years, he tried to overthrow the establishment from within, and it backfired on him.

 

[ShapurII]

To be fair, neither SPARC nor Linux were supported by the US government AFAIK. What you needed were local entrepreneurs who took those inventions and commercialized them for the Iranian market and beyond.

The government can help by encouraging entrepreneurship but it may be hard with all the sanctions.

Linux is just a kernel, reverse-engineered from Unix, but the US government extensively uses Linux-based distros in its telecommunication, space and defense sectors. SPARC is an instruction set. Of course, it is based on academic research and academic research in the US is paid quite well compared to Iran. A university professor in the US makes north of $150K per year, aside from NSF grants and other indirect support offered by the US institutions and the government. You know how much a university professor makes in Iran? $10K per year.

Did any sector of the Iranian regime use Parsix? A distro that could be trusted?

Do you remember Obama's stimulus package during the 2008 crisis? It saved tens of US companies like General Motors. Has the Iranian government ever done something like that to promote real technology in Iran?

There were no crippling sanctions back in 2003. Cripple sanctions started since 2008.

 

[ShapurII]

Ahmadinejad become narcist in his last years, he tried to overthrow the establishment from within, and it backfired on him.

And I think he was right to do so. The establishment does not deserve to rule over a great nation like Iran. He even clearly said at some point that the problem is Khamenei himself.

If he had overthrown the establishment in his last years, we would've had a nuclear bomb by now.

 

[kastor ville]

reformists are the real problem... been reading about gov. changes in IR since 2010

and post ahmedinijad, all gov. have been about negotiations and nothing more!

seems every politician in IR these days has one agenda to go by, 'negotiate with west and have sanctions lifted'..

German and Italian bankers, who control west, will never lift off these sanctions.

your best choice is to seek partnership with China, alone!

Banking cartels are the least friendly people on this planet!

Nope....you need a wider strategy, China and Russia will not risk their necks for us.....they will use this opportunity to exploit us further. We need a strategy that lays out what is our plan....well, what is our plan? Is it to make nukes? Well then, make the damn thing....stop playing around. You're already being attacked and sanctioned. If it's not nukes then what is it? Is it to be a nuclear threshold state? Well, you have enough enriched uranium....and the know how, now what? Can we stop enriching? What is the strategy to come out from these crushing sanctions? See.....they don't have a good answer.....because the people in charge haven't planned out the chess game 10 moves down the road. But, that's their job! We have no money, no air force, no bargaining chip, except enrichment.....well, they just bombed the crap out of that chip. So, what's next?
Look at my other post.....there are only 2 roads to take, but if you take it, you have to be willing to go all in.....if not they will sense the weakness.
First road is to make the bomb.......but it may not be enough, you need to make deliverable....but nevertheless, this is the first road. After that....the sanctions stay but you can at least create deterrence
Second road, know your limits and acknowledge they chess-mated you, and now you need to play nice and give up your toys and come back into the fold....just like the turncoat Arabs. But at least you'll sell your oil, get some money, repair your economy....with that you buy an air force and modernize your defenses.
If there is an option three....I don't know it. But I'm guessing they're not ready to choose either of the first two choices either....so we're right back at the start....no plan.

 

[OldTwilight]

And I think he was right to do so. The establishment does not deserve to rule over a great nation like Iran. He even clearly said at some point that the problem is Khamenei himself.

If he had overthrown the establishment in his last years, we would've had a nuclear bomb by now.

that doesn't matter if he was right or wrong , his actions trigger reactions that he could not handle ...

 

[ShapurII]

Nope....you need a wider strategy, China and Russia will not risk their necks for us.....they will use this opportunity to exploit us further. We need a strategy that lays out what is our plan....well, what is our plan? Is it to make nukes? Well then, make the damn thing....stop playing around. You're already being attacked and sanctioned. If it's not nukes then what is it? Is it to be a nuclear threshold state? Well, you have enough enriched uranium....and the know how, now what? Can we stop enriching? What is the strategy to come out from these crushing sanctions? See.....they don't have a good answer.....because the people in charge haven't planned out the chess game 10 moves down the road. That's their job.....you have no money, no air force, no bargaining chip, except enrichment.....well, they just bombed the crap out of that chip. So, what's next?
Look at my other post.....there are only 2 roads to take, but if you take it, you have to be willing to go all in.....if not they will sense the weakness.
First road is to make the bomb.......but it may not be enough, you need to make deliverable....but nevertheless, this is the first road. After that....the sanctions stay but you can at least create deterrence
Second road, know your limits and acknowledge they chess-mated you, and now you need to play nice and give up your toys and come back into the fold....just like the turncoat Arabs. But at least you'll sell your oil, get some money, repair your economy....with that you buy an air force and modernize your defenses.
If there is an option three....I don't know it. But I'm guessing they're not ready going to choose either of the first two choices either....so we're right back at the start....no plan.

The whole concept of a nuclear-threshold state is theoretical nonsense.

You are either a nuclear state or you are not. There is nothing in between.
And when you become a nuclear state, you need to constantly upgrade your capabilities. It is not something binary.

 

[ShapurII]

that doesn't matter if he was right or wrong , his actions trigger reactions that he could not handle ...

Ahmadinejad was the Trump of Iran. They didn't like him because they couldn't control him and make him play their stupid game of Khamenei vs. Rafsanjani (and recently, Khamenei vs. Rohani) where the only thing that gets screwed along the way is Iran's national interests.

 

[mangekyo]

Nope....you need a wider strategy, China and Russia will not risk their necks for us.....they will use this opportunity to exploit us further. We need a strategy that lays out what is our plan....well, what is our plan? Is it to make nukes? Well then, make the damn thing....stop playing around. You're already being attacked and sanctioned. If it's not nukes then what is it? Is it to be a nuclear threshold state? Well, you have enough enriched uranium....and the know how, now what? Can we stop enriching? What is the strategy to come out from these crushing sanctions? See.....they don't have a good answer.....because the people in charge haven't planned out the chess game 10 moves down the road. But, that's their job! We have no money, no air force, no bargaining chip, except enrichment.....well, they just bombed the crap out of that chip. So, what's next?
Look at my other post.....there are only 2 roads to take, but if you take it, you have to be willing to go all in.....if not they will sense the weakness.
First road is to make the bomb.......but it may not be enough, you need to make deliverable....but nevertheless, this is the first road. After that....the sanctions stay but you can at least create deterrence
Second road, know your limits and acknowledge they chess-mated you, and now you need to play nice and give up your toys and come back into the fold....just like the turncoat Arabs. But at least you'll sell your oil, get some money, repair your economy....with that you buy an air force and modernize your defenses.
If there is an option three....I don't know it. But I'm guessing they're not ready to choose either of the first two choices either....so we're right back at the start....no plan.

Cats out of the bag. They will go for full balkanization. There’s no way back. Going nuclear buys IRI some more time, but there’s nothing they can do in the long run.

Nuclear or non nuclear, they will keep hitting us with sanctions and turn us into North Korea. They will drop bombs on us from time to time. Once people have had enough, they will demand regime change.

 

[Immortals]

 

[vmro]

Cats out of the bag. They will go for full balkanization. There’s no way back. Going nuclear buys IRI some more time, but there’s nothing they can do in the long run.

Nuclear or non nuclear, they will keep hitting us with sanctions and turn us into North Korea. They will drop bombs on us from time to time. Once people have enough, they will demand regime change.

For balkanization of Iran, Iran must have balkanian circumstances...only in Yugoslavia ther were 5 tribes in war with each other, brutal war, historically based war, like when Soviets played "home" in Lithuania international basketball game, snd entire hall cheered anti-Russian slogans...

If you have entire tribes, numerous with preparation for civil war,, yes, they will try... but I never seen it in Iran...Kurdish and Balochi are not counted here, from obvious reasons I think...There are historically high numbers among them anti-Iranian, or anti-any state ...

 

[BigMela2onin]

Reformists are in power

Majority of SNSC are conservative

Both sides are destroying Iran for personal gain.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Cats out of the bag. They will go for full balkanization. There’s no way back. Going nuclear buys IRI some more time, but there’s nothing they can do in the long run.

Nuclear or non nuclear, they will keep hitting us with sanctions and turn us into North Korea. They will drop bombs on us from time to time. Once people have had enough, they will demand regime change.

That's the point where you drop nukes at every regional major population center. Nukes are useless without the will to use then.

 

[Persian Gulf]

full article from beyond paywall:

Iran struck five Israeli military bases during 12-day war​

Strikes shown by radar data not made public due to IDF’s strict censorship



Iranian missiles appear to have directly hit five Israeli military facilities during the recent 12-day war, according to radar data seen by The Telegraph.

The strikes have not been made public by the Israeli authorities and cannot be reported from within the country because of strict military censorship laws.

They will further complicate the battle of words between the enemies, with both sides attempting to claim absolute victory.

The new data were shared with The Telegraph by US academics at Oregon State University, who specialise in using satellite radar data to detect bomb damage in war zones.

It suggests five previously unreported military facilities were hit by six Iranian missiles in the north, south and centre of Israel, including a major air base, an intelligence gathering centre and a logistics base.

Approached by The Telegraph on Friday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it would not comment on missile interception rates or damage to its bases.

“What we can say is that all relevant units maintained functional continuity throughout the operation,” said a spokesman.

The strikes on the military facilities are in addition to 36 others known to have pierced Israeli air-defence systems, causing significant damage to residential and industrial infrastructure.

Iranian missile strikes in Israel​

• Seven hits on oil and power facilities
• The destruction of part of the Weizmann Institute, one of the country’s leading scientific research centres
• Major damage to the Soroka University Medical Center, a hospital that sits adjacent to a campus of Ben-Gurion University in Be’er Sheva
• Strikes on seven densely built residential areas that have left more than 15,000 Israelis homeless

Analysis by The Telegraph suggests that while the vast majority of Iranian missiles were intercepted, the proportion that got through grew steadily in the first eight days of the 12-day war.

The reasons for this, say experts, are not clear but may include the rationing of a limited stock of interceptor missiles on the Israeli side and improved firing tactics and the possible use of more sophisticated missiles by Iran.

The US is estimated to have launched at least 36 THAAD interceptors during the war at a cost of some $12 million a time.

In Israel, a densely packed small country of just 9.7 million people, the piercing of the country’s famed missile-defence systems has come as a shock, with the authorities having to issue notices warning that they were “not hermetic”.

But there has also been growing suspicion within the country that military targets were hit.

Raviv Drucker of Channel 13, one of the country’s best-known journalists, said last week: “There were a lot of [Iranian] missile hits in IDF bases, in strategic sites that we still don’t report about to this day... It created a situation where people don’t realise how precise the Iranians were and how much damage they caused in many places”.

Corey Scher, a researcher at Oregon State University, said his unit was working on a fuller assessment of missile damage in both Israel and Iran, and would publish its findings in around two weeks.

In Iran, Islamic Republic officials and state media are using footage of missiles penetrating Israeli air defences in an attempt to convince domestic audiences they won the war.



Maj Gen Ali Fazli, the IRGC’s deputy commander-in-chief, appeared on state TV on Thursday night, claiming implausibly that Iran was “in the best defensive position in the 47-year history of the Islamic Revolution – never before have we been at such a level in terms of military readiness, operational cohesion, and fighter morale”.

This despite Israel’s proven ability to strike at will over the entire country and the substantial damage caused to the country’s military leadership and nuclear programme.
Nevertheless, it is likely that a large part of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal remains untouched. Even by Israeli estimates, only half of its launchers were destroyed in the 12-day conflict and substantial stocks of missiles remain.

Maj Gen Fazli claimed that underground “cities” of missiles remained untouched in Iran.
“We have not yet opened the doors of even one of our missile cities,” he claimed on Thursday.

“We assess that so far only about 25 to 30 per cent of existing missile capability has been used and, at the same time, the production cycle is powerfully supporting this operational capacity.”

 

[Persian Gulf]

Majority of SNSC are conservative

you guys are two sides of same coin. always trying to blame each other rather than admitting any fault or taking any responsibility for your side. what a disgrace.

 

[Persian Gulf]

was anyone fired or resigned in top military, political, security, intelligence echelons for the massive intelligence and military failures?

after October 7th attacks, top Israeli intelligence and military leaders resigned

after 2006 war with Hezbollah, Israel admitted they failed to achieve their goals, and launched a public commission to fully investigate what went wrong

instead in Iran we have leaders trying to convince everyone that they won the war and we were on the brink of destroying Israel and if Israel didn't beg us for a ceasefire which we mercifully accepted out of the kindness of our heart (that has been threatening to destroy Israel for 40 years) we would have destroyed them any day now

weak countries try to pretend everything is fine and perfect, strong ones accept reality and fully investigate failures to ensure they are not repeated!