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I finally got his answer, I don't have control over his time...

Haha, Emirzad, you're persistent, I love that, but you're heading straight for disaster with your accusations. ROFL in return? OK, challenge accepted. 😆

First, to clarify once and for all: no, I'm not Mr. Iran Eye, nor his phantom "Mr. X." It's Reza, period. Ex-HESA, as I said, I worked on the avionics of the modernized F-5s before switching to civilian use (and yeah, the sanctions don't help with sleep).

The Telegram group? Not secret, man, it's a restricted chat with 70-90 guys, like ex-colleagues, pilots from the 2nd Tactical Airbase, Iranian military enthusiasts, and a couple of analysts who follow the IAIO tenders. We share scans of internal reports (not public, but not classified either), blurry photos of Tabriz or Isfahan, and laugh at memes about "ghost zincs." If it were all a load of rubbish, why would I come here to be teased? I have a life, a job in Tehran, and tea to drink.

Now, on to Kowsar, because that's where you really go off the rails. You cling to serials like a lifebuoy, and that's cool, respect for the grind on WAF (I used to hang out there too, before they kicked out anything that smelled Iranian). But "only three"? In 2025, with satellite images from Planet Labs or Maxar that anyone can grab for 50 bucks? Let's get down to brass tacks, no bullshit:

3-7400, 3-7164, 3-7180: Yeah, all three were delivered for a parade at Hamedan in June 2020. Photos everywhere, even on PressTV. No debate.

The fourth one (no public serial number): Seen as a primer outside at HESA in late 2021, as you say, but it wasn't an abandoned prototype. It's the chassis for Block 10 testing (upgraded avionics with the Grumman multifunction system and local HUD). Confirmed by a former shop employee who sent me a blurry photo via DM last year: painted and moved to TFB.2 (Sheikhbabaei) for integration, late 2022.

The fifth: March 2023, Tabriz (TFB.7), light gray, serial number partially obscured on the runway edges, but it's 3-7421, according to the logs my friend (still active) saw. No public HD photo (IRIAF isn't Instagram, especially with all the US drones flying), but satellite imagery shows a spotter caught it in low flight this summer.

Sixth and seventh: In assembly since Q1 2024, two-seaters for the Kowsar-88. Upgraded Owjeh engines (F-5 cannibal + local tweaks for flight hours). Not delivered yet, but the line at HESA is running – slow due to parts, but not stopped. And what about the 16 that are still in development? This is from the official IRIAF press release (November 2024, via IRNA), to replace the aging Safir aircraft in training. If it was just talk, why allocate post-sanctions budget?

Jane's? Yeah, they're lenient on Iranian serial numbers (too many legal risks), but WAF doesn't have everything either; they only count what's publicly leaked, and the IRIAF masks serial numbers for new aircraft (basic security, not a conspiracy). "Mass produced batch"? Not quite a factory producing 100 per year like the Sukhoi, but a squadron (12-16) by 2027, that's the goal. Iran isn't moving at the speed of the F-35, but we're not clowns either. And the Yak-130? Good idea for drills, but for pure combat? The Kowsar is cheaper to scale locally, and with the tensions in the Gulf, we prefer to keep our eggs in our own basket.

Look, I get your frustration. The IAIO has messed up big time (Azarakhsh, Saeqeh prototypes galore), and there's corruption, for sure. But to say "downfall" because of guys like me? Nah, it's the sanctions and budgets that kill, not the "narratives." If I'm lying, why won't there be a scandal in 2025? Come on, throw out your recent WAF sources or your 2024-2025 satellites, we'll compare, and if you're right, I'll concede and buy you a virtual round of tea. Otherwise, shall we stop the "Bob of Baghdad" nonsense and discuss aviation like pros? What do you say? 😏

To all those who keep repeating "the Kowsar is just a rebadged F-5, zero future": Tell that to the pilots of the 23rd TFS who have been flying real CAP missions with it since 2022.

Tell that to the HESA engineers who replaced 70% of the systems with local components (4th generation AESA radar, Iranian HUD, Link 16 made in Iran, in-house RWR).

Tell that to the IRIAF commander who announced in November 2024 that the first full squadron (12-16 aircraft) would arrive by 2027-2028 to replace the F-5E/Fs on the front line. It's not an F-35, nobody claims that.

It's a light, inexpensive fighter, 100% sanctions-proof, costing ten times less per flight hour than a MiG-29, and capable of dropping Qassed, Sadeq, and Akhavan missiles without relying on Russian or American parts.

The future of a fighter jet isn't always stealth and supercruise.

Sometimes it's simply: "It flies, it fires, we repair it with whatever parts we have on hand, and it's there tomorrow morning when we need it." For Iran, in 2025, that's exactly the future.

And the Kowsar ticks all the boxes. Period.

So you finally agreed that 5 aircrafts exist in 7-8 years.

You wasted everyone's time and forum space, making up twisted stories of secret inside scoop groups and in the end you repeated the exact same thing everyone knows for years that project is stuck with 5 prototypes of an advanced trainer/light CAP/CAS in 8 years ! Rest of what your alternative e-persona wrote, is already well known since the day they showed the 3-7400 prototype so nothing is new. IRIAF is already preferring YAK-130, thanks but no thanks.
 
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Has this been posted previously? DDD/Pataramesh video on speculated/possible future IRIAF aquisition of Su-57.
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Patarames is an IRGC mouthpiece now but yes SU-57 is the plane to chase post SU-35S deliveries. Follows the perfect transition to actual modern air combat starting from YAK-130 as AT, MIG-29SMT, SU-24MK2, SU-30SM, SU-35S, SU-57. IRI could not bargain it right because if Algeria could get these, why could not Iran ? after helping Russia in Syria and in Ukraine in actual wars against west.
 
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Well, let's see iranian Su-35 first, then we could start talking about the future possibilities. Documents and insider info suggest IRIAF Su-35 are being actively built, but until we actually see them in Iran, no point in looking ahead too much.

As i said to DDD/Pataramesh, Iran should have ordered 48-60 EACH Su-35, Su-30SM and MiG-35 for near simultaneous deliveries from the 3 separate russian factories to quickly build up numbers of modern fighters, but again this is just me engaging in wishful thinking.
 
Well, let's see iranian Su-35 first, then we could start talking about the future possibilities. Documents and insider info suggest IRIAF Su-35 are being actively built, but until we actually see them in Iran, no point in looking ahead too much.

As i said to DDD/Pataramesh, Iran should have ordered 48-60 EACH Su-35, Su-30SM and MiG-35 for near simultaneous deliveries from the 3 separate russian factories to quickly build up numbers of modern fighters, but again this is just me engaging in wishful thinking.

This makes a lot of sense to bulk up as quickly as possible but Russia has its own needs to fulfil for its war in Ukraine as well. If the option was there, then Iran should take that approach for certain.
 
This makes a lot of sense to bulk up as quickly as possible but Russia has its own needs to fulfil for its war in Ukraine as well.
the west won't leave Russians alone till they break it like Ottoman...

All the west possible truth with Russia would be temporary , so buying weapon from them is better than Chinese
 
All the west possible truth with Russia would be temporary , so buying weapon from them is better than Chinese

I do think if the chance is there to buy J10CE's, Iran should take them. I do think Chinese avionics are far superior to anything that the Russian industry can produce imho and it would offer a pathway to the J-35A as well ( only caveat is the so called UN sanctions but we have heard of air defence systems going to Iran, so China may not care about them anymore ).
 
I do think if the chance is there to buy J10CE's, Iran should take them. I do think Chinese avionics are far superior to anything that the Russian industry can produce imho and it would offer a pathway to the J-35A as well ( only caveat is the so called UN sanctions but we have heard of air defence systems going to Iran, so China may not care about them anymore ).
China does not recognise UNSC sanctions against Iran
 
Well, let's see iranian Su-35 first, then we could start talking about the future possibilities. Documents and insider info suggest IRIAF Su-35 are being actively built, but until we actually see them in Iran, no point in looking ahead too much.

As i said to DDD/Pataramesh, Iran should have ordered 48-60 EACH Su-35, Su-30SM and MiG-35 for near simultaneous deliveries from the 3 separate russian factories to quickly build up numbers of modern fighters, but again this is just me engaging in wishful thinking.

If we go by this then Iran should order Su-27, then Su-30, then SU-35 over next 12 years ... while others would be jumping from 4.0 Gen to 5.0, we will stay stuck in loop of learning to walk before running. Technology is changing rapidly. IRGCASF is a modern force because they decided to jump from building Shahab SRBMs to MaRVed Hypersonics and PBVs, leaping ahead while others in region are still importing missiles from China.

What Iranian planners want to achieve with SU-35S could have been achieved by ordering bunch of old airframes of MIG-29 from Russia with proper MLU and upgrades to MIG-29M/M2/SMT standard. Russia does not use MIG-29 as much on war fronts. They could easily spare some additional 100 air-frames + 24 local ones to create a viable force of ~125 Air-superiority interceptors (all MLUed+upgraded). This would have quenched the immediate need and IRIAF could plan for SU-57 for future. MIGs fit in IRIAF like a glove, I was saying yesterday that if deal is signed, Iranian pilots from Shiraz can fly these aircrafts into Iran the very next day, inducted into squadrons the next morning. No Training, No infrastructure needed.

I believe they went for SU-35S solely for the fact that it replaces F-14A's role of long ranged air-superiority interceptor with its R-37. Result of this plan is this deliveries are delayed and war happened in between death of F-14A fleet and delivery of Sukhois.
 
China does not recognise UNSC sanctions against Iran

They do not on paper but they do react to western pressure in other ways. The whole Project Silk Road II debacle happened because Chinese CAC engineers left the program in the middle and HESA had to build a plane by itself which it could not mass produce.
 
I believe they went for SU-35S solely for the fact that it replaces F-14A's role of long ranged air-superiority interceptor with its R-37. Result of this plan is this deliveries are delayed and war happened in between death of F-14A fleet and delivery of Sukhois.
The Su-35 is closer to 5th and possible 6th gen , it can be useful even in next 20 years and if we want to buy Su-PAKFA then its logical choice to be acquired at this point ...

and don't forget the psychological effect of acquiring even 24 su-35 compare to Mig-29 ... the Su-35 can restore the confident in Air force and force our hostile neighbors to think twice before starting any adventure but Mig-29 lake this psychological effect ... ( most of warfare is psychological )


Anyway there were rumors for replacing F-5 , Larijani ( current head of Iran National Security Council ) wants to buy JF-17 while the Airforce prefer J10CE ( Larijani is political person , he probably thought about more aspect than sole military reason )....

If we want go for Su-57 and can buy some JF-17 ( 72 air frame ) and get TOT of another 72 in Iran , then I would prefer JF-17 ( create a common ground with PAF and strengthen relation with Pakistan ) ...

if we want to go for J35E or possible 6th gen Chinese fighters then J10CE would be more logical ...

side note : Look like Chinese systems are too much integrated , but Russian systems can work more independently , IRI doesn't want to be bound by China rule ...

برای بازسازی نیروی هوایی باید به جنبه های سیاسی ، اقتصادی و دیپلماسی و تبلیغاتی قضیه فکر کرد. خرید میگ 29 شاید سریعتر باشه ولی آیا خبر خرید میگ 29 می تونه جلوی آمریکا و اسرائیل رو بگیره یا تاثیر خبر خرید سوخو 35 برای امنیت ما بیشتر هست !؟
 
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Well, let's see iranian Su-35 first, then we could start talking about the future possibilities. Documents and insider info suggest IRIAF Su-35 are being actively built, but until we actually see them in Iran, no point in looking ahead too much.

As i said to DDD/Pataramesh, Iran should have ordered 48-60 EACH Su-35, Su-30SM and MiG-35 for near simultaneous deliveries from the 3 separate russian factories to quickly build up numbers of modern fighters, but again this is just me engaging in wishful thinking.
Yep...I do see the sands in the world order shifting again, Russia is less worried about pissing off the US/West over aid to Iran. I guess, the West's support for Ukraine did that....so, we may live to see these damn things finally get delivered. But, again, this is a piece meal effort, we need the integrated air defence system the military guys in here talk about......it makes sense, we can't have all of these systems not talking to each other and not working in concert. I mean Gosh, I'm no expert, I've said it many times, I'm a history, management grad, not a military man, but even I know how the enemy works by now....it's all about air superiority with them. So, I hope they have a grand plan how to integrate these system into one battlefield info system.
 
China does not recognise UNSC sanctions against Iran

Just in case (excuses) of full need of their latest models. :)

Both China and Russia have close to 2000 active and retired fleet of Mig-29s and Su-27s and Su-30s which Iran may have been interested especially during last months so words go one way action goes same way or another way ?
 
Patarames is an IRGC mouthpiece now but yes SU-57 is the plane to chase post SU-35S deliveries. Follows the perfect transition to actual modern air combat starting from YAK-130 as AT, MIG-29SMT, SU-24MK2, SU-30SM, SU-35S, SU-57. IRI could not bargain it right because if Algeria could get these, why could not Iran ? after helping Russia in Syria and in Ukraine in actual wars against west.
The problem It is lack of IRIAF in modern russian aviónica, weaponry and tactics. IRIAF even doesn't operate R77, so the jump to Su57 It is not logical and would be harder and counterproductive. That is the reason why IRIAF needs Yak130 before jump Su35. IRIAF needs modern russian digital aviónica and weaponry before operating Su35. But Algeria have been operating Su30 for more than 10 years.
 
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The problem It is lack of IRIAF in modern russian aviónica, weaponry and tactics. IRIAF even doesn't operate R77, so the jump to Su57 It is not logical and would be harder and counterproductive. That is the reason why IRIAF needs Yak130 before jump Su35. IRIAF needs modern russian digital aviónica and weaponry before operating Su35. But Algeria have been operating Su30 for more than 10 years.
LMAF: Rouhani wanted to buy French Mirage fighters.
 

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