Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Maybe you can combine some hard line you suggest with soft policy.

You can flatten just IAI or Elta Factory. And one day before call Trump via Russia to let opened a window. 1 Finish Gaza Genocide, 2 stop Lebanon invasion and 3 return to hostages and mantain prior bello status quo. And Iran can give all guarantees not attack anymore Israel directly (True promises operations) or indirectly (HZ, Yemen or iraqui PMUs).

But for that you need to push a bit more the knife to the Netanyahu's throat.
if Israel is attacked like that they will not back down let alone accept such a solution

we saw in recent months Israel is not controlled by USA, they removed Gallant as last influence of USA in Israel

neither Iran or Israel wants to back down at the moment, no one is presenting an off ramp to the other either
 
Ukraine could be piece of cake to next plan of third superpower, Turkistan, with projected zone of power from China to North Africa... Turkey is not ideal for anyone, but far more preferred than Russia and Iran, and with decreasing American presence in Eurasian heartland, full acceptable partner for usa...

This could be very dangerous for Iran and almost certainly fatal for half of Russian land...Without strong Iran, only Turkey is possible candidate to fulfill emptiness in the heart of heartland....

Iran is oriented to other zone of influence, so they can make pact of non-aggressive relations between them, Russian new doctrine have no problem with Iranian expansion on entire azeri state, while Armenia in Russian zone, but Turkish expansion is potentially fatal scenario...


It's far more easy with mutual efforts to neutralize rise of Turkish mega-empire, and very hard for solo-playing against it...

For now, Russians are ok, they transferred hi-tech air technology, they increased their presence in Syria, their military staff is in Tehran this days, and they informed Israel that will not accept any fatal scenario for Iran... And I am sure that more things are going on, but of course, only few people from both sides know whole story....


No love in geopolitics, but they have to cooperate now and in projected future...
What we know for sure is that Trump will try with all his might to bring Russia and China into conflict. The bargaining chip will most likely be Ukraine. He will be offered what the Russians already have, adding promises of “neutrality” and “demilitarization,” in exchange for which they will demand that they break off their close economic ties with Beijing. Putin is unlikely to take such a step. One of his most important principles is compliance with agreements. Trump’s response in this case will be to further strengthen Kiev and escalate the conflict in order to “force” Russia to accept US conditions.

For Russia, with all his populism and peace talk, Trump is a tough and aggressive politician who, after the assassination attempt and such a confident but difficult victory, will do everything in his power to restore the greatness of the United States.

Even if it means setting the entire planet on fire. First of all, this means the restoration of heavy industry and the revival of the American defense industry, since military power goes hand in hand with greatness. They all pursue their own interests, in which there is no place for a prosperous and strong Russia.

I believe that they will continue to face a difficult struggle for their own existence and prosperity. For their historical lands. And no one in the world will do work for the Russians.
 
What we know for sure is that Trump will try with all his might to bring Russia and China into conflict. The bargaining chip will most likely be Ukraine. He will be offered what the Russians already have, adding promises of “neutrality” and “demilitarization,” in exchange for which they will demand that they break off their close economic ties with Beijing. Putin is unlikely to take such a step. One of his most important principles is compliance with agreements. Trump’s response in this case will be to further strengthen Kiev and escalate the conflict in order to “force” Russia to accept US conditions.

For Russia, with all his populism and peace talk, Trump is a tough and aggressive politician who, after the assassination attempt and such a confident but difficult victory, will do everything in his power to restore the greatness of the United States.

Even if it means setting the entire planet on fire. First of all, this means the restoration of heavy industry and the revival of the American defense industry, since military power goes hand in hand with greatness. They all pursue their own interests, in which there is no place for a prosperous and strong Russia.

I believe that they will continue to face a difficult struggle for their own existence and prosperity. For their historical lands. And no one in the world will do work for the Russians.
Personally I'd rather see the world destroyed than let Trump revive US dominance. The tide of the wind clearly states that the East and Global South needs to prevail against the US/Western-led Old World Order to establish a new order, and this is the future I want to live in. A future free from Western dominance, where the West finally reaps Karma to them via becoming impoverished socially chaotic countries after hundreds of years colonizing countries in Asia and Africa. This manifest destiny has to happen for BRICS and all efforts must be made to ensure the downfall of US and Europe so the Global South can finally prosper.
 
Trump murdered Soleimani

That is impossible
I think Iran needs to think Strategically, yes he did murder Soleimani but sometimes you need a truce with your enemies to consolidate and strengthen. Being unpredictable can also catch your foes.
 
Personally I'd rather see the world destroyed than let Trump revive US dominance. The tide of the wind clearly states that the East and Global South needs to prevail against the US/Western-led Old World Order to establish a new order, and this is the future I want to live in. A future free from Western dominance, where the West finally reaps Karma to them via becoming impoverished socially chaotic countries after hundreds of years colonizing countries in Asia and Africa. This manifest destiny has to happen for BRICS and all efforts must be made to ensure the downfall of US and Europe so the Global South can finally prosper.
Personally, I believe that a relevant US is important, there is no multipolar world without the existence of a US. The problem I see is that many consider that the US will one day fall like the USSR, the same thing with the West and China, the fall of the USSR really left all sides with a triumphalist feeling over the other. The US has internal mechanisms to stand out from the rest of the world in all categories, including Europe, or even China, the problem has always been and will always be political, it remains to be seen how the presidency will make this a reality or a distant dream, but the idea of a fall of the American Empire is something that we will hardly see in our lifetime.
 
I think Iran needs to think Strategically, yes he did murder Soleimani but sometimes you need a truce with your enemies to consolidate and strengthen. Being unpredictable can also catch your foes.
I believe he will have so many internal enemies to fight that I think foreign policy may be a secondary objective in this second presidency.
 
I think Iran needs to think Strategically, yes he did murder Soleimani but sometimes you need a truce with your enemies to consolidate and strengthen. Being unpredictable can also catch your foes.
If Iran does that, then Iran should also surrender to the US and dismantle its ballistic missile and drone program, cut funding to hezbollah and hamas and go to war with them and consider Israel as a legitimate state, then dismantle all its nuclear sites and sign a contract stating that Iran will stop producing weapons and instead buy everything from the US with killswitches on

NK and Russia invited Trump because he didn't assassinated NK/Russian officials/general

If he didn't assassinate Soleimani then this would have been doable
 
Maximum pressure 2.0 is incoming

And Iran, unlike NK or Russia isn’t going to send Pezeshkian to tell Trump how great he is and how much hotels in Iran would be great for his companies.

The difference between now and 2016 is Iran’s nuclear program is much more advanced and closer to a bomb with large amount of enrichment uranium, in 2016 it had a weakened program with little leverage when Trump exited the deal.

It seems Iran was right not to negotiate any type of agreement with Biden since right now it would once again be getting ripped up once Trump came to power.
 
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Maximum pressure 2.0 is incoming

And Iran, unlike NK or Russia isn’t going to send Pezeshkian to tell Trump how great he is and how much hotels in Iran would be great for his companies.

The difference between now and 2016 is Iran’s nuclear program is much more advanced and closer to a bomb with large amount of enrichment uranium, in 2016 it had a weakened program with little leverage when Trump exited the deal.

It seems Iran was right not to negotiate any type of agreement with Biden since right now it would once again be getting ripped up once Trump came to power.
I fear we will rue not making the most of this period

we still have a few months to increase our leverage. install cascades of IR-8, all out enrichment to 60%, start enrichment to 90%, withdraw from NPT.
 
I think Iran needs to think Strategically, yes he did murder Soleimani but sometimes you need a truce with your enemies to consolidate and strengthen. Being unpredictable can also catch your foes.
From one side, some public love offer to Trump by Iran will not resolve any of real problems. It's pointless, and probably will be parodied in usa... And from other, Iran will put itself in the level of Balkan's quasi states, that some such visits have to make national holiday, with naming some places in the name of that potus..

Iran will take all hard times to deal with them, and will behave like already capitulated looser...

While some countries like Turkey are doing exactly opposite, avoiding hard times and declaring toughness in public performance, Iran will declare publicly romantic soft face, while going tough in reality....

What is the point here?
 
You know very well they informed the US exactly when and where they would attack, and made sure without any doubt there would be no US casualties.

During TP1-2, Biden pressured Netanyahu not to escalate. And since Israel has no chance against Iran without full US backing, they had to abide, twice. Trump would have assured Netanyahu that US stands behind Israel no matter how it responds. He might have even threatened to bomb Iran before TP2 and it would have never happened
Wut. Quite a story.
 
This thread is waaay off topic.
 
I think Iran needs to think Strategically, yes he did murder Soleimani but sometimes you need a truce with your enemies to consolidate and strengthen. Being unpredictable can also catch your foes.
People forget truce is a two street (again). The US will NEVER seek truce with Iran until it is forced to. EVER.

Now THAT’S clear and cold ‘strategic thinking’.
 
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I fear we will rue not making the most of this period

we still have a few months to increase our leverage. install cascades of IR-8, all out enrichment to 60%, start enrichment to 90%, withdraw from NPT.


Those tactics are more bluffs if the willpower to go nuclear is not there. Which I think so far in Iranian decision making circles it has not been. I don’t think iran is serious about nukes at this point in time.

Now I think the Trump period for Iran and Axis will be incredibly challenging since it will have a return of a Hawkish neo conservatives alongside a Bibi who has consolidated power against his cabinet. I think you will see more assassinations of Iranian officials and likely more Israeli attacks on the Axis and Iran itself.

The one off ramp is to give Trump a huge foreign policy win: peace in Middle East and Iran/Israel peace deal. However, do the Iranians want to give the killer of Solemani such a win? I don’t see it, but stranger things have happened in geopolitics.

For Iran, things are about to get worse and a lot of tough decisions will need to be made. They need to hope that China doesn’t cut oil imports from Iran (Maximum pressure 2.0). Does Xi realize the strategic nature of Iran-China-Russia against the Western drive for a new world order? Russia cannot do much to shield Iran from sanctions since it competes with Iran in the energy market, but it can provide strategic military weapons to Iran.
 

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