Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

At least 2 UKMTO today, followed by a gem posted by a "French special forces" man (try not to laugh)

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If this happens, funny videos will appear that we saw back in 2019 (UAE APC rolling over and doing panic reverse gear to then explode and other never seen level of incompetence), they would be constituted of the same type of fanatics, as always whites, UkrainoNazis and ChickenDF racists/nazis, at this point UAE would start to become a colonial market like Djibouti
no problem at all. foreign mercenaries meant to be cannon fodders
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Yemenis reduce LNG tanker traffic in Red Sea / Gulf of Aden to ZERO
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this makes sense because LNG tankers are particularly vulnerable to strikes
 

“Let's assume that Marwan Issa was killed in Gaza. And let's even assume we’ll eliminate Deif and Yahya Sinwar—The three prominent leaders of Hamas in Gaza. Will Hamas leave the world? It is always the Israeli illusion that eliminations solves problems. Their replacement might be even worse. The Israeli regime, the military, the intelligence and the media are in love with assassinations.”
 
Reported zionist attack on Damascus with claimed 2 missiles out of 3 intercepted by SYAD

 

This is true —to an extent. Assainations work but they aren’t magic.

Quick example:
Rome without Caesar
Al-Queda without Bin Laden or Zawahiri
Al-Queda of Iraq without Zarkawi
ISIS without Al-Shishani or Al-Baghdadi

While most complex organizations can absorb losses of higher rank personnel, there is a limit and eventually you start taking out (by luck or skill) more unique individuals who play a critical part and cannot be simply replaced. You will never truly know who is what unless you manage to build a Time Machine or hope into alternative timelines and view history in different lenses.

But imagine for a moment if Allies assassinated Von Buren in WW2 in early days of WW2 or Nazi’s eliminated Oppenheimer. Would anyone know of the significant accomplishment these men would later conduct in the world? No. No one would have a clue. But we do know because they were alive and accomplished what few men can do in a lifetime.
 
This is true —to an extent. Assainations work but they aren’t magic.

Quick example:
Rome without Caesar
Al-Queda without Bin Laden or Zawahiri
Al-Queda of Iraq without Zarkawi
ISIS without Al-Shishani or Al-Baghdadi

While most complex organizations can absorb losses of higher rank personnel, there is a limit and eventually you start taking out (by luck or skill) more unique individuals who play a critical part and cannot be simply replaced. You will never truly know who is what unless you manage to build a Time Machine or hope into alternative timelines and view history in different lenses.

But imagine for a moment if Allies assassinated Von Buren in WW2 in early days of WW2 or Nazi’s eliminated Oppenheimer. Would anyone know of the significant accomplishment these men would later conduct in the world? No. No one would have a clue. But we do know because they were alive and accomplished what few men can do in a lifetime.
I don’t agree. A large portion of IRI leadership was taken out by the MEK after the revolution. It don’t recall even a blink.

These operations are targeting the population as psyops. That’s where the bulk of the effect is.
 
I don’t agree. A large portion of IRI leadership was taken out by the MEK after the revolution. It don’t recall even a blink.

You are exhibiting common psychological effect of Survivorship bias.

And what if Solemani was killed during Iran-Iraq war? Would Iran survive? Mostly certainly. Would Iran be as strong as it is today via its foreign legions? Unlikely. You would never know the influence of such a man in that alternate reality.

What if Hitler died in WWI serving on the front lines? Or in his subsequent assasination attempt in WW2?

You only see the truth in those realities where years later you can reflect on the famous (or infamous) accomplishments of said individuals. In realities they met their demise, you likely wouldn’t even know their name or that anything is amiss in those realities.

This butterfly effect can go both ways, US and UK short sighted removal of PM Mosadegh brought forth an even worse opponent for them decades down the line.

The general rule of thumb is to remove brilliant military minds if you have the opportunity. The world will never know if your decision was the better one, everyone will critcize it as they cannot see the alternate reality.

These operations are targeting the population as psyops. That’s where the bulk of the effect is.

I’m sure the millions of Palestinians starving from malnutrition and famine care if Deif’s right hand man survived or not.
 
You are exhibiting common psychological effect of Survivorship bias.

And what if Solemani was killed during Iran-Iraq war? Would Iran survive? Mostly certainly. Would Iran be as strong as it is today via its foreign legions? Unlikely. You would never know the influence of such a man in that alternate reality.

What if Hitler died in WWI serving on the front lines? Or in his subsequent assasination attempt in WW2?

You only see the truth in those realities where years later you can reflect on the famous (or infamous) accomplishments of said individuals. In realities they met their demise, you likely wouldn’t even know their name or that anything is amiss in those realities.

This butterfly effect can go both ways, US and UK short sighted removal of PM Mosadegh brought forth an even worse opponent for them decades down the line.

The general rule of thumb is to remove brilliant military minds if you have the opportunity. The world will never know if your decision was the better one, everyone will critcize it as they cannot see the alternate reality.



I’m sure the millions of Palestinians starving from malnutrition and famine care if Deif’s right hand man survived or not.
You are exhibiting ‘what if the moon were made out of cheese’ bias. It isn’t.

Hezbollah has also survived and flourished with these ‘targeted assassinations for decades. As have various Palestinian factions.

Not sure how your cheese argument holds in reality.
 
You are exhibiting ‘what if the moon were made out of cheese’ bias. It isn’t.

One is factual the other defies laws of universe, but go on. You have failed to answer wether Iran would be equally as powerful/capable today if the likes of Solemani or Tehrani Moghaddam did not survive their brushes with death.
Hezbollah has also survived and flourished with these ‘targeted assassinations for decades. As have various Palestinian factions.

Nasrallah has stayed hidden in a bunker most of his life. Imad Mugniyeh’s son was assassinated alongside Iranian Major General Allahdadi in Syria by Israeli drones right in Golan. We will never know what that boy could have done for Hezbollah.

The current organizations survival is due to direct ties to Iran it’s monetary and arms patron. Which was threatened so much by the civil war in Syria that even Iran’s pragmatic leadership decided to intervene to keep land bridge secure to HZ to prevent a scenario you see happening in Gaza right now from ever occurring to South Lebanon.

As for Gaza, well Rafah is the last major remaining holdout and it will take years if perhaps much longer to rebuild Hamas back to its pre-Oct 7th strength.

So yes target elimination of key members does degrade organizations. However, They aren’t a magic bullet solution (no pun intended).
 
Famous Iranian advisor (and troops) in Bosnia during their civil war:

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Famous Iranian advisor (and troops) in Bosnia during their civil war:

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Turkey Exports to Bosnia And Herzegovina was US$755.42 Million during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.
In 2021, Iran exported $14.7M to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

During the last 15 years the exports of Turkey to Serbia have increased at an annualized rate of 18.3%, from $163M in 2006 to $2.02B in 2021. In 2021, Iran exported $45.9M to Serbia.

Will Yemen and Syria and Iraq and Lebanon and Afghanistan follow the same pattern? If so we need to change our foreign and national policy 180 degrees.. radically.. even if it includes removal of velayate faghi system.
 
Thoughts of a Palestinian living in the occupied West Bank
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Thoughts of a Palestinian living in the occupied West Bank
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The issue with that 2nd tweet is these Arabs will quickly forget in years that follow especially when Arab reconstruction billions flow in from Saudi Arabia/QATAR/PGGC.

Look how quickly they forgot 2006 war. By 2010 even Hamas itself broke from HZ and Iran and sided with headchopping terrorists because they were “Sunni”. Only when PG Arabs backstabbed them and the terrorists lost did they crawl back to Iran with hat in hand asking for forgiveness.

I hope this time Arabs remember Iran, HZ, Iraqis, and Houthi’s were the ones that shed blood for Palestine while Persian Gulf Arabs made business deals with the West and talked normalization with Israel.

But history has shown Arab world has a short term memory.
 
The issue with that 2nd tweet is these Arabs will quickly forget in years that follow especially when Arab reconstruction billions flow in from Saudi Arabia/QATAR/PGGC.

Look how quickly they forgot 2006 war. By 2010 even Hamas itself broke from HZ and Iran and sided with headchopping terrorists because they were “Sunni”. Only when PG Arabs backstabbed them and the terrorists lost did they crawl back to Iran with hat in hand asking for forgiveness.

I hope this time Arabs remember Iran, HZ, Iraqis, and Houthi’s were the ones that shed blood for Palestine while Persian Gulf Arabs made business deals with the West and talked normalization with Israel.

But history has shown Arab world has a short term memory.
Are you then suggesting Iran should seize helping ‘these Arabs’?
 

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