Iran’s diplomacy should overcome rigidity with softness through three supple moves:
1. Stall for time: having missed the best moment to arm itself, Tehran should trade “simultaneous inspections for simultaneous sanctions relief,” retreat to rebuild strength, and sprint to nuclear capability once U.S.–China tensions ignite in East Asia.
2. Disarm hostility: ease rhetoric toward Israel while rallying Sunni states into a united front against it.
3. Deal resources: swap oil and gas for investment, establish tax-free processing zones,
Only by stepping back can one gather strength to deliver the fatal blow.
I agree with point number 3 — I think Iran and China might eventually sign a major deal where they swap oil and gas at favorable prices to boost Iran’s economy. Relying too much on oil is a curse, in my opinion. Iran has a young, educated population that could thrive if given the right conditions.
But I disagree with the rest. Iran wants to be a big global player in a future world with two superpowers, a few more big players, and a bunch of semi-colonial states. It’s shocking how quickly Assad’s forces and Hezbollah were destroyed in Lebanon and Syria — it’s strange how the Axis of Resistance lasted so long against Israel. Part of that was because of the legendary General Qasem Soleimani, who knew how to get the most out of limited resources. And his persona was protective aura for eventual betraying ideas...
In the coming period, there probably be a debate in Iran about whether nationalism or Shiism should be the main guiding force. These two ideas don’t have to be enemies. Nationalism is rising in Iran, and for many, keeping the Tehran-Beirut corridor, expensive one btw, is a waste of money and resources. Opinion that makes sense now.
In the long run, I’m not sure. With Israel’s next Litani project in Lebanon and their surest harsh actions in Syria for any minor mistake, both countries are likely to become very pro-Iranian. In a few years period... Religion has that unique advantage — it’s conservative and can survive almost any situation, making it a reliable way to rebuild influence in the right moment. Iran will probably have a semi-colony in Africa, and other countries like Turkey, China, and Russia will do the same. France just doesn’t have the power to control such a big region anymore.
Setting up a network of religious institutions is always the cheapest and most reliable way to spread own influence. But IF religion stays influential in the future, that’s something to think about, seriously and studiously — it could shape the debate between nationalism and Shiism in Iran.
(I am not religious person so regrets if I was unintended offensive with anything, that is not my intention...)