Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[mulj]

Iran needs proper sunni allies in region beside Hamas and that is it, first precondition for wider success of their strategy and that would be real challenge for settlers entity and west.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran needs proper sunni allies in region beside Hamas and that is it, first precondition for wider success of their strategy.

that is difficult when the Sunni forces are dedicated to working with Israel and blowing up Shias

what Sunni groups should Iran work with? Al Qaeda? ISIS-K? Al Nusra? None of them will work with evil Shia Persians.

 

[tsunset]

Unusually sensible take

The reality is that Hezbollah cannot defeat Israel inside Israel (huge disparity in numbers, resources, weapons, etc) and it exists to defend Lebanese territory. It can do that job well using local territory as a force multiplier but at the cost of severe devastation and high casualties. It is better for Hezbollah to sit back and grow in strength and wait for the right time to reclaim the remaining occupied territory rather than suddenly join the Hamas attack which it didn't prepare for and would have no clear objectives.

For a rare time i agree with you, going in just after 7 would have been suicide

Hezbollah is probably capable of defending Lebanon (no stolen lands by Israel) but not capable of taking Israeli lands and this makes no sense as the international community will cry about it and public perception will be damaged, Hezbollah is mainly a defensive force with mostly defensive weapons

But Lebanon outside Hezbollah force, saying they can't afford a war, is the most important, Lebanon would be turned in rubble and no one will do anything besides Hezbollah launching missiles at Israel while unable to protect against airstrikes

Taking a step back from it and throw away emotiveness and be lucid and realistic is the way to and even more now as we saw what IDF is capable of doing and their thirst for genociding the region

 

[mulj]

that is difficult when the Sunni forces are dedicated to working with Israel and blowing up Shias

what Sunni groups should Iran work with? Al Qaeda? ISIS-K? Al Nusra? None of them will work with evil Shia Persians.

I doubt that, it was like that decade ago, main strife among mentioned and non mentioned is assad, everything else is rhetoric and workable.

 

[Immortals]

You were saying that "Now HZ and Iran will be routinely targeted in Syria with no response"

Yes, under auspices of Oct 7th, Bibi now has mandate to pursue HZ and Iran much more virtuously.

All these bluffs by Iran of advanced ADs being transferred to Syria were just that.

but that was already the status quo before October 7th

Incorrect. In fact Israel painstakingly avoided in recent years causing HZ losses in Syria to avoid flare ups. This is quite clear to anyone who follows the Syria file.

and we cannot know the counterfactual scenario.

We don’t know the counterfactual scenario if Hitler never invaded Russia. But general consensus is by not having a second front, Hitler would have done much better in the Western European front and quite possibly invaded England with all that extra manpower and firepower.

Hezbollah launching an attack on Israel moments after Hamas did the same would undoubtedly have led to a much more severe response from Israel than what we have seen so far.

And what is your solution here? Watch Israel routinely mow the grass in a south Lebanon and Syria.

Some of you seem to forget Iran’s military budget is limited and the Syrian war has already costed Iran tens of billions of dollars since 2012.

Every ammo depot and base that gets damaged requires money to repair —money that could go to much more pressing military projects.

These pressing projects mean some projects never get funding or at the very least the risky projects with uncertain payoff remain shelved. Again what type of impact could those projects have? We will never know.

But what we do know is money going to Syria reduces money going elsewhere.

South Lebanon would probably look like Gaza. Maybe that will happen anyway, but Hezbollah wasn't prepared to start a sudden war

If after 17 years (2006 war), HZ is not prepared for war with Israel, then they are a joke.

So it’s laughable to think that HZ and Iran don’t have a folder full of contingency scenarios and what to do. This is standard operating procedure by any serious military power.

The fact is Iran doesn’t want war. They made it so abundantly clear via that pathetic FM we have. Anymore clear and they might as well hung a white flag on Azadi Square.

Once you remember Iran is run by factions who care about self perseveration and wealth, then you will understand why IRGC is not responding. Solemani had more discretion to respond vis a vi the Syria file, as his relationship with the SL was on near equal ground in terms of opinion sharing. During his time we saw Fateh missile fired over Israeli controlled territory and multiple major drone attack attempts.

In contrast, Ghanni is just another officer in the war machine. He does not have authority that Solemani did. Solemani would text message US commanders like David Paterus and taunt them. The man was a legend.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I doubt that, it was like that decade ago, main strife among mentioned and non mentioned is assad, everything else is rhetoric and workable.

OK so tell me, which Sunni groups should Iran work with? If they exist and it makes sense, I am sure we will all agree.

 

[mulj]

OK so tell me, which Sunni groups should Iran work with? If they exist and it makes sense, I am sure we will all agree.

I do not know frankly, Iran should go around with Turkey and Gulfies to figure it out, also proper alliance between sunnis and shias in Lebanon would help very much.

 

[Immortals]

It is better for Hezbollah to sit back and grow

How much more you want to grow? How much more missiles do you need? Where will you store them? Hezbollah already sits on over 100,000 rockets and missiles. To put it in perspective they have nearly as much rockets and missiles as the State of Russia did prior Ukraine invasion.

Hezbollah has reach critical mass. There is no more “wonder weapons” to add that would change reality on the ground significantly.

in strength and wait for the right time to reclaim the remaining occupied territory

“The right time”

And when is that exactly? Quds has been under occupation coming up on a century. This nonsensical statement of “a right time” is the same thing Pakistan tells itself regarding Kashmir or China tells itself about Taiwan.

At least be honest and say the entire point of the axis groups is to protect Iranian soil.

But when that redline is violated, what will you all say then? I’m sure you will Surprised when Iran takes the path of least resistance in that day as well.

 

[Immortals]

OK so tell me, which Sunni groups should Iran work with? If they exist and it makes sense, I am sure we will all agree.

Well you just threw the only major Sunni group you had to the wolves.

After Rafah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad will be a political party.

I’m sure if Hamas had a “do over” they would never had conducted Oct 7th. I think behind closed doors they are shocked Iranian support was as subdued as it was. Meanwhile, Iranian establishment sits at sermons and says Palestine is fine and doesn’t need their help. Laughable.

Muslim world watched as Genocide was carried out by the West. The 1960’s and 1970 Arab world would be turning in their graves if they could see what became of these so called “Muslim” nations. Even the bastard Shah wouldn’t have allowed this level of killing.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I do not know frankly, Iran should go around with Turkey and Gulfies to figure it out, also proper alliance between sunnis and shias in Lebanon would help very much.

Turkey is NATO country with its own imperialistic goals

Persian "Gulfies" are basically irredeemable

It's a nice idea in theory but I don't see many opportunities to make it a reality

 

[mulj]

Turkey is NATO country with its own imperialistic goals

Persian "Gulfies" are basically irredeemable

It's a nice idea in theory but I don't see many opportunities to make it a reality

Then you have big hole and drainage of limited resources, you "fight" against whole west and big chunk of locals take you with great suspicion. It is toxic circle which has to be braked somehow.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Then you have big hole and drainage of limited resources, you "fight" against whole west and big chunk of locals take you with great suspicion. It is toxic circle which has to be braked somehow.

If there is an opportunity to add to the Resistance Axis then I am sure they will pursue it. It would be illogical not to

 

[Immortals]

Sudan and Jordan are the next major axis areas.

Sudan was a major IRGC partner before the Saudi V Iran rift. In fact, IRGC had warehouses in sudan it used to smuggle weapons into Gaza. People forget when Israel attack warehouses belonging to IRGC in Sudan back in the day. Sudan was shaping to be a major base of operations for Quds force in Africa and power project into the Levant.

Then the Shia v Sunni rift happened and that moron for brains leader of Sudan sided with Saudi Arabia (for money of course). Thus Iranian influence was largely reduced and IRGC prescene downgraded severely.

Now with military junta in power they have to its resumed ties with IRGC and Iran. And Mohajer-6 has been helping Sudan repel the rebels.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

 

[Mehdipersian]

How much more you want to grow? How much more missiles do you need? Where will you store them? Hezbollah already sits on over 100,000 rockets and missiles. To put it in perspective they have nearly as much rockets and missiles as the State of Russia did prior Ukraine invasion.

Hezbollah has reach critical mass. There is no more “wonder weapons” to add that would change reality on the ground significantly.



“The right time”

And when is that exactly? Quds has been under occupation coming up on a century. This nonsensical statement of “a right time” is the same thing Pakistan tells itself regarding Kashmir or China tells itself about Taiwan.

At least be honest and say the entire point of the axis groups is to protect Iranian soil.

But when that redline is violated, what will you all say then? I’m sure you will Surprised when Iran takes the path of least resistance in that day as well.

The main problem of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Ansarullah, and Iraq's Hashd al-Shaabi is the lack of proper air defense. If they have proper air defense, the war will be different for them. They need a weapon like Arman Air Defense.

Iran cannot go to war with Israel at this time. As we saw in the case of Yemen, England, America and others immediately came to Israel's aid. But the future will be different.