Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Immortals]

Weakest part is IDF assets in Gaza.

Did you look at a map? Gaza is in the West of Israel. To get to Gaza you have to go over multiple air defense zones.
The least protected area from the East is the area away from the zones and Israeli homeland….which is Golan Heights

 

[Persian Gulf]

This whole “Israel is crumbling” facade is a joke. What part of Israel is crumbling exactly?

I shared that with @jauk because I thought it resembled some of his narratives

I shared my own view under that: "you have to weigh the benefit to their internal cohesion / external PR against the cost to Iran's own deterrence and cohesion. for me the balance this time favours the latter"

i.e. regardless of whether responding to Israel's declaration of war boosts Netanyahu's popularity, that is the path that must be taken for overriding reasons

 

[Immortals]

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he's not talking nonsense and he is talking specifically about ABM systems not drones. Israel has only a very small amount of Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors at Eilat

This is nonsense. Go look at Arrow-3 range….2400KM. So you don’t need Arrow-3 to be in Eilat to intercept a missile attempting to strike Eilat. Arrow-3 is literally a BM with a seeker on it.

Also what the hell is 6 Arrow-3’s? 6 batteries? 6 launchers? 6 Mozoltovs?

Like I said nonsense reporting.

 

[Immortals]

i.e. regardless of whether responding to Israel's declaration of war boosts Netanyahu's popularity, that is the path that must be taken for overriding reasons

If Bibi leaves tommorrow another Facist takes his place.

Wether Bibi stays or Bibi goes doesn’t matter. Every Israeli PM to follow will be “tough” on Iran. None of them want to be the next “Chamberlain” of Israel, by allowing Iranian threat to go unchecked on their watch.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Did you look at a map? Gaza is in the West of Israel. To get to Gaza you have to go over multiple air defense zones.
The least protected area from the East is the area away from the zones and Israeli homeland….which is Golan Heights

Golan Heights has pretty good protection and multiple Patriot batteries

they intercepted the Fateh missile launched by Syria back in 2017 or whenever it was as well as many other interceptions of drones

 

[Persian Gulf]

This is nonsense. Go look at Arrow-3 range….2400KM. So you don’t need Arrow-3 to be in Eilat to intercept a missile attempting to strike Eilat. Arrow-3 is literally a BM with a seeker on it.

Also what the hell is 6 Arrow-3’s? 6 batteries? 6 launchers? 6 Mozoltovs?

Like I said nonsense reporting.

Arrow-3 is exoatmospheric so not very useful against quasi ballistic missiles like Kheibar Shekan etc

Arrow-3 has never made an interception beyond a few hundred km at most

I don't think they will launch SAMs from across Israel towards a target headed towards Eilat, so theoretical range of other SAM systems is pretty irrelevant

 

[Immortals]

Golan Heights has pretty good protection and multiple Patriot batteries

Patriot does not have enough KE to face higher tier Iranian missiles. It’s good against low grade SCUD based missiles. It will struggle or outright fail against skip trajectory or Emad level missiles.

they intercepted the Fateh missile launched by Syria back in 2017 or whenever it was as well as many other interceptions of drones

You mean they intercepted it after it already flew over a major ski resort in Golan?

That missile was a warning shot fired on a depressed trajectory likely by Solemani for some prior attacks. Not a serious attempt to strike Israel or the Golan.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Patriot does not have enough KE to face higher tier Iranian missiles. It’s good against low grade SCUD based missiles. It will struggle or outright fail against skip trajectory or Emad level missiles.

Ukrainians would disagree

And Emad is precisely a SCUD based missile

 

[Immortals]

Arrow-3 has never made an interception beyond a few hundred km at most

Because it has never needed to. It has dealt with Houthi’s Iranian missiles just fine.

I don't think they will launch SAMs from across Israel towards a target headed towards Eilat, so theoretical range of other SAM systems is pretty irrelevant

You act like Israel is this massive territory. These missiles travel at Mach 5+ that means it can cover all of Israel in a blink of an eye.

So again, this analysis that Eillat will be overwhelmed has no reality. To penetrate Eillat Iran will need to fire 10+ missiles in quick succession some exo and some endo to overwhelm the ABM shield of Israel.

But again what target are you going to hit in Eillat? A random seaport? A military base?

The target is just as important as the attempt. I mean Houthis have done what Iran has never overtly done - attack israeli soil with BMs.

 

[Immortals]

Ukrainians would disagree

Yeah last week Kiyv was burning. Patriot did amazing job. Khinzal and Iskander do just fine outside of the concentration rings.

And Emad is precisely a SCUD based missile

Emad is MIRV. The warhead separates from body in space (unlike older SCUD designs). This reduces RCS and tracking capability. In terminal stage the warhead can do evasive maneuvering which will bleed KE on patriot.

If Patriot is going up against Emad or Sejil-2 then it is not favorable match up for it. Those missiles it’s best to shoot down in space (via THAAD and Arrow-3) during their trajectory alignment route, because after they re-enter it’s not favorable odds to use Patriot as last line of defense.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Because it has never needed to. It has dealt with Houthi’s Iranian missiles just fine.

Houthis fired very small numbers of elongated scud based missiles 1800km away in very suboptimal conditions and Israel still needed Arrow-3 last time. not a great comparison

You act like Israel is this massive territory. These missiles travel at Mach 5+ that means it can cover all of Israel in a blink of an eye.

So again, this analysis that Eillat will be overwhelmed has no reality. To penetrate Eillat Iran will need to fire 10+ missiles in quick succession some exo and some endo to overwhelm the ABM shield of Israel.

the analysis is that 13 ballistic missiles fired together will overwhelm Arrow interceptors in Eilat

now maybe they see a salvo of 13 missiles incoming and fire interceptors from all over Israel then you will be right

But again what target are you going to hit in Eillat? A random seaport? A military base?

The target is just as important as the attempt. I mean Houthis have done what Iran has never overtly done - attack israeli soil with BMs.

As I said before, the attack is just to establish the equation that an attack on Iranian territory will receive the same response. There is a big naval base there which the Iraqi resistance hit with a small drone just yesterday, that's a good start for the list of targets

personally like I said in the other thread, the Golan Heights makes the most sense, not from a likelihood of success point of view but because it's also Syrian territory so there is greater equivalence and proportionality to Israel's attack

 

[jauk]

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you have to weigh the benefit to their internal cohesion / external PR against the cost to Iran's own deterrence and cohesion. for me the balance this time favours the latter

Perhaps. We’ll see.

 

[tsunset]

Israelis, whether soldier or settler, should die in a retaliation, at least 10-20 of them, there should be entities of any sort killed from a retaliation, that are Israelis

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yeah last week Kiyv was burning. Patriot did amazing job. Khinzal and Iskander do just fine outside of the concentration rings.

"Patriot does not have enough KE to face higher tier Iranian missiles"

the point is Patriots have proven to be able to intercept Russian hypersonic missiles so to dismiss its chances of intercepting Emad because of kinematics is silly

Emad is MIRV.

no it isn't

 

[mangekyo]

I agree with parts of this

But we can do a lot: Eilat is not well defended against ballistic missiles and we can start to accumulate uranium enriched to 90% to further minimise our 'breakout time'. Further, stop sending senior IRGC commanders to Syria - until we address Israel's qualitative dominance in intelligence, they are sitting ducks.

My worry is not about our military capability. It’s the political will, or, more precisely, the lack of it within our government to act decisively.