Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836537575525486609

 

[CPTPLANET]

If you can think up that Israel's retaliation comes disproportionately. Then Iranian population can also think that, they would still blame their own ruling elite for poking a distant country.

Are you Indian Hindu?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah's mistakes:

- Entering a war with Israel that it wasn't prepared for on Hamas' timing in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. For months other Muslims mocked Hezbollah for fighting towers, and now they are suffering for Palestinians to a huge extent.

- Entering a war without a clear objective and where Israel controls the escalation ladder. In these cross-border exchanges of fire there is only one winner. It's not Lebanon. Until June, Israel fired 11,000 bombs into Lebanon (mostly 500-2000kg warheads, none intercepted), and Hezbollah fired 2,500 munitions into Israel (most with 20-50kg warheads and intercepted).

- Hezbollah needed to launch a massive first strike to draw Israel into another rushed land invasion, not enter a drawn out cross-border war of attrition that massively favours Israel. Hezbollah's advantage is defending local terrain, and it has not forced its enemy to fight this battle on Hezbollah's terms.

- Not realising that it is in a total war with Israel right now. It shows mercy and reluctance to bomb Tel Aviv while Israel simultaneously explodes 4000+ bombs across Beirut and Beqqa and the South, designed to mutilate and maim thousands. This is not strategic, this is weakness and failure to recognise what is happening.

The war is here, it is now. No more reluctance. You cannot start a war and be reluctant to act to harm your enemy, because Israel for damn sure will never hesitate to harm you and everyone in a 1,000km radius.

@Immortals @Hack-Hook @Flames In The Desert @Falcon29

 

[Persian Gulf]

If you can think up that Israel's retaliation comes disproportionately. Then Iranian population can also think that, they would still blame their own ruling elite for poking a distant country.

These savage acts of terrorism in Lebanon have shown Lebanese people that they are all targets for Israel, and they have brought Lebanese people together. When Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel in April, it brought Iranians together.

War always brings people together. That is even how the IRI was able to maintain its tenuous early grip on power. You are utterly clueless.

 

[FreePalestine]

Are you Indian Hindu?

Yes, he’s a Hindu bob and Vagin lover

 

[Falcon29]

@Persian Gulf

Hezbollah didn't know scale of operation when it joined in. Until it became more clear a few days later. Large domestic pressure and esp from resistance front and Hamas to support in some kind of way. Hezbollah didn't anticipate a large ground invasion into Gaza or the genocidal bombardment. Hamas was prepared for a limited ground incursion but probably not scale of offensive.

Agreed with your around points. One other thing let's talk about vulnerabilities of Hezbollah compared to Hamas:

Hamas is the internal security force in Gaza. Hezbollah has to work with Lebanese internal security forces. Hezbollah cannot monitor entire communications in Lebanon like Hamas can. Hamas security force can clear every inch in Gaza. And Hamas has deep roots in the population. No local enemies in the fashion Hezbollah has in Lebanon. Hamas knows every neighborhood in Gaza and Gazan population in general is a very tightly knit group. Everyone knows everyone and Hamas can clamp down on things quickly. Hamas had experience of repeated attempts to intercept communications or compromise their network due to concurrent wars with Israel. Hamas also has advantage of Palestinian workers going into Israel. So when they come back Hamas collects intelligence on what kind of intelligence Israel is trying to collect.

Lastly, no foreigners can enter Gaza like Lebanon. You have to be a Palestinian with a Palestinian ID issued in Gaza. It's very hard to enter Gaza even for normal Palestinians, before this war.

Social dynamic in Lebanon is a disadvantage for Hezbollah. Foreigner entry. Having not engaged Israel for a long time is also a disadvantage as Israel was engaging in Syria/Iraq/Iran/Lebanon one way or another.

 

[Persian Gulf]

@Persian Gulf

Hezbollah didn't know scale of operation when it joined in. Until it became more clear a few days later. Large domestic pressure and esp from resistance front and Hamas to support in some kind of way. Hezbollah didn't anticipate a large ground invasion into Gaza or the genocidal bombardment. Hamas was prepared for a limited ground incursion but probably not scale of offensive.

Agreed with your around points. One other thing let's talk about vulnerabilities of Hezbollah compared to Hamas:

Hamas is the internal security force in Gaza. Hezbollah has to work with Lebanese internal security forces. Hezbollah cannot monitor entire communications in Lebanon like Hamas can. Hamas security force can clear every inch in Gaza. And Hamas has deep roots in the population. No local enemies in the fashion Hezbollah has in Lebanon. Hamas knows every neighborhood in Gaza and Gazan population in general is a very tightly knit group. Everyone knows everyone and Hamas can clamp down on things quickly. Hamas had experience of repeated attempts to intercept communications or compromise their network due to concurrent wars with Israel. Hamas also has advantage of Palestinian workers going into Israel. So when they come back Hamas collects intelligence on what kind of intelligence Israel is trying to collect.

Lastly, no foreigners can enter Gaza like Lebanon. You have to be a Palestinian with a Palestinian ID issued in Gaza. It's very hard to enter Gaza even for normal Palestinians, before this war.

Social dynamic in Lebanon is a disadvantage for Hezbollah. Foreigner entry. Having not engaged Israel for a long time is also a disadvantage as Israel was engaging in Syria/Iraq/Iran/Lebanon one way or another.

I remember in the first few weeks of the war there was a very strong debate about whether Israel would even launch a ground invasion into Gaza. the most respected historians in the West were arguing it would not. only the rabid Zionists were confident that Israel would. they were right in ways none of us could have expected.

Iran needs nuclear weapons and the worst chemical and biological weapons ever assembled. and endless quantities of ballistic missiles buried deep under mountains, both within Iran but also proliferated across the entire region. This is achieved in Iran already (every few weeks someone on twitter discovers a new missile base buried even deeper under a massive mountain than before, Iran is full of huge mountains so this is not a concern), it's in progress in Yemen (Iran helping Yemen to build underground storages), and Iran is trying in Syria (though its proximity to Israel and weakness of central government makes it vulnerable to Israeli commando raids).

But this is not enough. North Lebanon near the Beqaa is extremely mountainous and Hezbollah should have dozens of deeply buried missile bases (likely it does, we saw some footage for the first time recently). and scattered across Syria, not just one in Maysaf. Iraq too, which should be the easiest one of all given huge land border with Iran and PMU influence. West Iraq to Tel Aviv is 450-500km. South Syria and Lebanese Beqaa to Tel Aviv is <300km. So these countries don't need larger missiles like Yemen does.

Once Iran has proliferated thousands of ballistic missiles scattered across underground bases in all of these territories (with maximum localised underground production) then the Axis can pack a real punch against Israel.

It is tempting to say this war came too soon for the Axis but there is never a perfect time so we must adapt yesterday and get on with it.

 

[FreePalestine]

I remember in the first few weeks of the war there was a very strong debate about whether Israel would even launch a ground invasion into Gaza. the most respected historians in the West were arguing it would not. only the rabid Zionists were confident that Israel would. they were right in ways none of us could have expected.

Iran needs nuclear weapons and the worst chemical and biological weapons ever assembled. and endless quantities of ballistic missiles buried deep under mountains, both within Iran but also proliferated across the entire region. This is achieved in Iran already (every few weeks someone on twitter discovers a new missile base buried even deeper under a massive mountain than before, Iran is full of huge mountains so this is not a concern), it's in progress in Yemen (Iran helping Yemen to build underground storages), and Iran is trying in Syria (though its proximity to Israel and weakness of central government makes it vulnerable to Israeli commando raids).

But this is not enough. North Lebanon near the Beqaa and extremely mountainous and Hezbollah should have dozens of deeply buried missile bases (likely it does, we saw some footage for the first time recently). and scattered across Syria, not just one in Maysaf. Iraq too, which should be the easiest one of all given huge land border with Iran and PMU influence. West Iraq to Tel Aviv is 450-500km. South Syria and Lebanese Beqaa to Tel Aviv is <300km. So these countries don't need larger missiles like Yemen does.

Once Iran has proliferated thousands of ballistic missiles scattered across underground bases in all of these territories (with maximum localised underground production) then the Axis can pack a real punch against Israel.

It is tempting to say this war came too soon for the Axis but there is never a perfect time so we must adapt yesterday and get on with it.

The resistance needs a young strong leader with ambition to conquer and free Palestine. Iran not developing nuclear weapon and not proliferating it throughout the resistance network is the biggest strategic mistake in my opinion.

The enemy (polish, Ukrainian, Hungarian, Serbian, Czech, Russian) Ashkenazi Jews are determined to annihilate every Muslim in the region until they achieve their ultimate goal of greater Israel.

 

[Falcon29]

@Persian Gulf

Now biggest danger is if this is a prelude to a large offensive. Hezbollah is seeming to lack awareness or in denial, imo. With Gaza, Hamas pretty much used all its rockets on purpose in the first three days and did as much damage as it could in the Gaza Envelope. So Israel didn't care about a surprise element. It publicly amassed forces for ground invasion and showcased it to their whole general public that was fuming. Hamas basically took revenge for things that happened in Gaza and what was happening in Jerusalem.

Hezbollah is not doing that. And Israel is trying to surprise them in order to neutralize Hezbollah's conventional attack capabilities. They will not publicize any deployments on border. It won't be a gradual buildup. I believe they will resort to a sudden and rapid buildup to a ground invasion to catch Hezbollah off guard. That's what's frustrating is we all see it coming. And everyone is in disagreement in how to approach it. If I was in Hezbollah's shoes I would hit hard. Strike with 5,000 rockets/missiles/drones in one day. To demoralize them. After which they have a 1-2 week window before ground invasion to deal as much damage on the north. But if they just wait and Israel takes consecutive steps, there is a risk of a wide scale surprise offensive that takes them by shock.

 

[Flames In The Desert]

honestly that seems not proportionate. they just license production of their pager to some random Hungarian company, how could they know it was a front company for Israeli sabotage? due diligence should have been done by Hezbollah. who in Hezbollah chose to purchase pagers from this random Hungarian company?

How "propotionate" do you want to be?,it was their company brand and model of device so they bare at least some of the responsibility,at least in my book.
If they`d investigated said "front company" ie gone and actually had a look at the factory I think they would`ve realised right away something was up.
I`m of the opinion that an example needs to be made and that it is far more important to send an appropriate message [appropriate is not always "proportionate"] so that future companies will automatically be EXTREMELY cautious if some "random company" suddenly pops up and wants to start manufacturing your product.
As for hezbollah I think the lesson to be learned is avoid all electronics produced by western or western aligned nations.
Com systems ideally need to be produced locally and engineered in such a way as to make booby trapping virtually impossible,ie sealed cases,potted internals and tampering indicators,perhaps even doing away with internal rechargable batteries entirely.

 

[Persian Gulf]

@Persian Gulf

Now biggest danger is if this is a prelude to a large offensive. Hezbollah is seeming to lack awareness or in denial, imo. With Gaza, Hamas pretty much used all its rockets on purpose in the first three days and did as much damage as it could in the Gaza Envelope. So Israel didn't care about a surprise element. It publicly amassed forces for ground invasion and showcased it to their whole general public that was fuming. Hamas basically took revenge for things that happened in Gaza and what was happening in Jerusalem.

Hezbollah is not doing that. And Israel is trying to surprise them in order to neutralize Hezbollah's conventional attack capabilities. They will not publicize any deployments on border. It won't be a gradual buildup. I believe they will resort to a sudden and rapid buildup to a ground invasion to catch Hezbollah off guard. That's what's frustrating is we all see it coming. And everyone is in disagreement in how to approach it. If I was in Hezbollah's shoes I would hit hard. Strike with 5,000 rockets/missiles/drones in one day. To demoralize them. After which they have a 1-2 week window before ground invasion to deal as much damage on the north. But if they just wait and Israel takes consecutive steps, there is a risk of a wide scale surprise offensive that takes them by shock.

if the maiming of 4000+ people across all of Lebanon doesn't lead to Hezbollah launching all out war then frankly they should withdraw behind the Litani River and call it a day for now instead of absorbing so many more losses with no will or way to establish deterrence

 

[Falcon29]

I remember in the first few weeks of the war there was a very strong debate about whether Israel would even launch a ground invasion into Gaza. the most respected historians in the West were arguing it would not. only the rabid Zionists were confident that Israel would. they were right in ways none of us could have expected.

Iran needs nuclear weapons and the worst chemical and biological weapons ever assembled. and endless quantities of ballistic missiles buried deep under mountains, both within Iran but also proliferated across the entire region. This is achieved in Iran already (every few weeks someone on twitter discovers a new missile base buried even deeper under a massive mountain than before, Iran is full of huge mountains so this is not a concern), it's in progress in Yemen (Iran helping Yemen to build underground storages), and Iran is trying in Syria (though its proximity to Israel and weakness of central government makes it vulnerable to Israeli commando raids).

But this is not enough. North Lebanon near the Beqaa is extremely mountainous and Hezbollah should have dozens of deeply buried missile bases (likely it does, we saw some footage for the first time recently). and scattered across Syria, not just one in Maysaf. Iraq too, which should be the easiest one of all given huge land border with Iran and PMU influence. West Iraq to Tel Aviv is 450-500km. South Syria and Lebanese Beqaa to Tel Aviv is <300km. So these countries don't need larger missiles like Yemen does.

Once Iran has proliferated thousands of ballistic missiles scattered across underground bases in all of these territories (with maximum localised underground production) then the Axis can pack a real punch against Israel.

It is tempting to say this war came too soon for the Axis but there is never a perfect time so we must adapt yesterday and get on with it.

Really? I was absolutely under the impression they would invade. They always amass troops and armor on Gaza's borders during any escalation longer than one week. In a attempt to intimidate Hamas. And they're always eager to do at least a limited ground incursion. What I didn't see coming was the genocidal saturation bombing of Gaza's entire cities and residential neighborhoods. That kind of bombardment made it much harder to fend off a ground invasion. Otherwise they'd suffer many more ground casualties.

There needs to missiles and drones all prepared to destroy Israeli infrastructure. Enough to confidently do that in a sustained manner. Agree with you there. It's just very costly for Iran.

 

[Persian Gulf]

How "propotionate" do you want to be?,it was their company brand and model of device so they bare at least some of the responsibility,at least in my book.
If they`d investigated said "front company" ie gone and actually had a look at the factory I think they would`ve realised right away something was up.
I`m of the opinion that an example needs to be made and that it is far more important to send an appropriate message [appropriate is not always "proportionate"] so that future companies will automatically be EXTREMELY cautious if some "random company" suddenly pops up and wants to start manufacturing your product.
As for hezbollah I think the lesson to be learned is avoid all electronics produced by western or western aligned nations.
Com systems ideally need to be produced locally and engineered in such a way as to make booby trapping virtually impossible,ie sealed cases,potted internals and tampering indicators,perhaps even doing away with internal rechargable batteries entirely.

I don't mind being 'disproportionate' against an enemy. but a dumb Taiwanese company that licences products to a European company without doing much DD? iran and Hezbollah rely on these obscure front companies themselves to circumvent sanctions. if they can identify those involved in the Hungarian business then that makes more sense, but I suspect it's an empty shell company with fake names etc.

 

[Falcon29]

if the maiming of 4000+ people across all of Lebanon doesn't lead to Hezbollah launching all out war then frankly they should withdraw behind the Litani River and call it a day for now instead of absorbing so many more losses with no will or way to establish deterrence

I don't think they will. I can't say with full confidence there's a war coming. But, I can say that Hezbollah is mismanaging the front. There is potential for them to be managing it more effectively.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I don't think they will. I can't say with full confidence there's a war coming. But, I can say that Hezbollah is mismanaging the front. There is potential for them to be managing it more effectively.

the war is coming the question is whether Hezbollah realises it before or after Israeli troops enter Lebanon and decimate south Beirut*

* I meant south Beirut, they already decimated south Lebanon...