Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[jauk]

So you have no proof?

I have pudding. You should to. Simple stuff. Doesn’t take much brain power.

So

 

[tsunset]

I have pudding. You should to. Simple stuff. Doesn’t take much brain power.

So

So you have no proof at all

 

[jauk]

So you have no proof at all

I do.

So

 

[Persian Gulf]

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even the 'left' in Israel are advocating for Israel to use nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities

lets wake up and prepare accordingly

 

[ziaulislam]

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even the 'left' in Israel are advocating for Israel to use nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities

lets wake up and prepare accordingly

Arabs are really sleeping...lol
Can't believe they backstab Pakistan who provided nuclear know how(okay sure we did it for the money )

Libya Gaddafi would have stayed in power if he hadn't given up

 

[Immortals]

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[Persian Gulf]

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[jauk]

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Note: All IR6's, which are now the main workhorse of Iranian enrichment. IR8' and IR9's kept in the sleeve. More material, faster, AND far smaller footprint (i.e. Fordo).

 

[Persian Gulf]

Note: All IR6's, which are now the main workhorse of Iranian enrichment. IR8' and IR9's kept in the sleeve. More material, faster, AND far smaller footprint (i.e. Fordo).

IR-8 and IR-9 are not ready for mass deployment yet, need more years of testing

 

[jauk]

IR-8 and IR-9 are not ready for mass deployment yet, need more years of testing

I don’t believe that’s the case although that’s Iran official position . These are just slices for Iran upping the heat when needed.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

Sad but truth

I hope we have law makers and supreme leader and they won't let gov to change nuclear policies

Attacking your enemy is the best defence

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[jauk]

Sad but truth

I hope we have law makers and supreme leader and they won't let gov to change nuclear policies

Attacking your enemy is the best defence

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This thread is for official nuclear doctrine and supportive data. Please avoid editorials and opinion pieces. Let’s keep it real.

 

[Immortals]

Note: All IR6's, which are now the main workhorse of Iranian enrichment. IR8' and IR9's kept in the sleeve. More material, faster, AND far smaller footprint (i.e. Fordo).

IR-8 and IR-9 are not ready for mass deployment yet, need more years of testing

I don’t believe that’s the case although that’s Iran official position . These are just slices for Iran upping the heat when needed.

@Persian Gulf is right. I remember having this conversation with Peed a couple years ago. Getting enrichment SWU 70x - 80x and even 100x a single IR-1 is an incredible feat and few countries in the world do it. The problem is creating a centrifuge design that is scalable in production and reliable. Your carbon fiber production precision has to be very precise even more than a ballistic missile, there is very room for error because any slight defect in the composite weave can lead to failure (as you saw with infamous Titan sub implosion).

Few companies in the world can produce carbon fiber oven composites at such precision at scale thousands of time. The weave has to be monitored every step of the way for defects or impurities depending on how many layers it is. It’s an art as much as science vs the steel/titanium/aluminum alloy approach.

A clear example of difficulty of getting to production is IR-6 which is not performing despite being fed testing gas way back in 2012. It was expected (5x SWU) by some and is only slightly better than IR-4. Iran claimed up to 10x SWU but that is highly unlikely.



Here a slightly dated breakdown:



As you can see IR-9 at 40-50x SWU is an incredible feat if it can be scaled in production. Just 4 IR-9 centrifuges can do the work of an entire cascade of IR-1’s (theoretically)

IR-6 at 10x is very generous estimate and even 5x would be very good.

IR-4 was tested way back in 2009 (ie 15 years ago) and it seems since 2022 iran feels relatively confident in the design and failure rate.

Assuming at least a decade of R&D for IR-8 and IR-9 since first testing with uranium gas, points to IR-8 being ready in 2027-2030 and IR-9 sometime in early 2030’s. Lots of factors at play here including but not limited to Iran’s ability to produce centrifuges in wake of sabotage on multiple nuclear facilities.

A theoretical 75-100x aka IR-10 or IR-X (5th or 6th gen Iranian centrifuge) would likely need some type of laser enrichment and could be ready by 2040 if Iran develops a prototype by 2030. I don’t know if the desire is even their for such a model. I know Peed told me back then that only 3 countries in the world have centrifuges with 100+ SWU production: US, EU, and Russia. I think 75-90 is a great goal.

Again IR-8 or IR-9 is more than enough to do a secret weapons pilot program somewhere to break out, as you would only need 1 cascade to have an SWU production of ~5000SWUs.

But for Iran which wants to have a large scale civilian enrichment fuel program would require an SWU goal of at least 500,000 SWU if not 1,000,000. The easiest way would be with IR-9 or a future IR-10 model rather than having thousands up thousands of IR-4’s or IR-6.


Iran is participating country in the fusion reactor project in France (?). Although I don’t believe for one second anyone would provide the components needed for Iran to create their own fusion reactor should the design become viable. Hell I’m not even sure how much of the “design”, iran gets to “see”. Maybe someone with more insight can share on that.

But fusion reactors are the future of clean energy and there are quite a number of start ups in the space trying to build a viable model. I would imagine in next 10 years we will see that as well (a fully production ready design) By China or the West.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[Persian Gulf]

Here a slightly dated breakdown:

View attachment 53861

as you note, this table is out of date

Iran now has 2475 installed IR-4 and 1097 installed IR-6

IR-6 has reached acceptable reliability and mass production a few years ago. although with metal bellows rather than fully carbon fibre due to some issues with carbon fibre reliability. that's probably what is delaying IR-8 etc too

also interesting to note that Israel's nuclear archive revealed Iran has been working on a IR-16. computer models only but interesting nonetheless