Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

[Hamartia Antidote]

I knew the US was losing when I saw that all US netizens were thinking about blocking rather than landing in China. Americans have lost the courage to face their opponents directly, how can a country that lacks even courage defeat China?

So where do you suggest we land and what do you suggest we do when we get there? Do a slash and burn like Gaza? What exactly does that accomplish?

You guys still think about War like it is 1945.

 

[MH.Yang]

Well, you need to look at how Russia supporting its war in Ukraine before you say China and Russia have "Everything". Either that or China basically betraying the Xi-Tin Bromanced "Blood Brothers" relationship.

Issue here is, war economy is not exactly the way you think, first of all, US will not like you think will not adjust to the war, the US will expand its industrial output if and when US goes to war with China, US had done that in WW2 and can do it again if they were to go to full mobilisation mode, in fact, that's what Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act of 1939 entailed. So if and when US goes to war with China, the US will re-industrialise on a probably larger scale than what we had seen during WW2 due to technological advancement.

Second, you cannot match sea trade with road bound trading, the best way you can trade inland is thru freight train, but the effectiveness is probably 2 to 5% of any freight cargo shipment. You can't supply your industrial need just by ground based and air-based trade route, that is if you can find an industrial partner to trade with you to begin with. That would strangle Chinese industrial output

Comparing Maritime Versus Railway Transportation Costs

Several years ago, two independent studies compared maritime to railway transportation costs involving the movement of containers. It seems possible

maritime-executive.com

And finally, as I mentioned before, not the physical blockade is what China should worry about, it's the embargo enact to China.

And a big haha and good luck to your last point.

Before World War II, the United States was the world's largest industrialized nation, and at that time it had tens of millions of industrial workers. Nowadays, America only has NBA stars and lawyers and doctors. And China now has hundreds of millions of skilled industrial workers.

These industries cannot be restored in a few years, and it will take decades for the United States to recover. You can't build a huge industry with just investment and state policy, you need workers. And the United States has almost no workers right now.
It is even likely that the U.S. will never recover due to lack of certain resources and technologies.

If the U.S. chooses to race China in armaments, then the U.S. is bound to fail miserably. The gap between the two countries is as huge as the shipbuilding capacity of the two countries, with China's annual shipbuilding capacity at 39 million tons and the United States' annual shipbuilding capacity at 400,000 tons.


btw: As for Russia, for the first few years when China was at a disadvantage, Russia could be trusted. When China starts to launch a counter-offensive against the US, Russia may fall back to the US. We are well aware of this, but let's not forget that a few years is enough time to reactivate the various closed mines in the country.

btw: Considering the U.S. government's botched performance during the COVID epidemic, I'm even skeptical that the U.S. still has the ability to execute a general mobilization. How can the US government organize its citizens for a world war when they cannot even get them to wear masks? In the end, the US government will likely only be able to do so by throwing the population into the trenches to consume it. The Chinese government, on the other hand, can certainly carry out the most efficient general mobilization by precisely distributing and training its population to ensure stability and reinforcement in any field.

 

[MH.Yang]

So where do you suggest we land and what do you suggest we do when we get there? Do a slash and burn like Gaza? What exactly does that accomplish?

You guys still think about War like it is 1945.

Since ancient times there have been only two ways to attack China by land, one was Korea and the other was Vietnam. The only option for the US is to use Japan and South Korea as bases to launch an attack on China through North Korea.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

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I knew the US was losing when I saw that all US netizens were thinking about blocking rather than landing in China. Americans have lost the courage to face their opponents directly, how can a country that lacks even courage defeat China?



If the U.S. only has a naval blockade and is not willing to land on China, the U.S. is bound to fail.

If you're up against a country with a huge industry, the war has to end soon or you'll end up like Japan in WWII. Don't forget that China is actually a resource power that can be self-sufficient in resources, and that it has a very stable trade channel with Russia.


China could suspend all exports that require ocean transportation and shift all of its industrial capacity to armaments. This would first lead to a global shortage of materials and commodities, which the United States would lack for some time.

Second, China's armaments would increase rapidly. With the size of China's industry, it would be possible to build a hundred carrier fleets, a billion drones, ten million tanks, etc. a year.

China would then trade with Russia and Central Asian countries overland for resources. Russia is the largest resource country in the world, China is the largest industrial country, Russia has the full spectrum of resources, China has all the industrial environments.

In a few years China will expand to hundreds of millions of troops, hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and robot dogs, tens of millions of tank armies later. China will sweep all American bases on this planet.

Lol in which fantasy world do you live in to have hundreds of millions of troops, hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and tens of millions of tanks, do you know how much take $$$ to manufacture/ maintain/logistics lol you only have a 7 trillion $$$ economy and USA has a 20+ trillion $$$ economy and still not able to have a hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and tens of millions of tanks

Get out of your fantasy world and lala land kid

 

[j_hungary]

Before World War II, the United States was the world's largest industrialized nation, and at that time it had tens of millions of industrial workers. Nowadays, America only has NBA stars and lawyers and doctors. And China now has hundreds of millions of skilled industrial workers.

These industries cannot be restored in a few years, and it will take decades for the United States to recover. You can't build a huge industry with just investment and state policy, you need workers. And the United States has almost no workers right now.
It is even likely that the U.S. will never recover due to lack of certain resources and technologies.

Again, you have no idea what I was talking about. It will not take a decade because all the service are maintained with the 1939 strategic acts. For example, the US don't use Philadelphia Naval Yard does not mean the yard is not maintained, a lot of crucial infrastructure is maintained and can be brought back to life in just a few month. The strategic depth on the issue is the US base can be rebooted while using existing equipment, those existing equipment in today term is the 10 Carrier Strike Group + whatever we have in the Mothballed Fleet, those will last until the US restarted the industrial power

On the other hand, you don't need to land in China to defeat the Industrial power, you are going to see 200 + bomber/Fighter frequently visit China and bomb the coast line.

You don't need hundred million skill "industrial" worker to maintain an industrial base.

If the U.S. chooses to race China in armaments, then the U.S. is bound to fail miserably. The gap between the two countries is as huge as the shipbuilding capacity of the two countries, with China's annual shipbuilding capacity at 39 million tons and the United States' annual shipbuilding capacity at 400,000 tons.

lol, you can't use peacetime ship building (And civilian ship building no less) US don't build new ship because US is ahead of China in tonnage for a long mile. 10 US Fleet carrier is 75% of the entire PLAN tonnage, can we build 20 Fleet Carrier, sure, why not? but then who is going to staff it? I mean how do you find 5000 sailor to staff it, and then how are you going to support it and maintain it, that's not a tissue paper where you throw out once you use it, you need to be able to maintain and support those ship you build, China can build 100 carrier, and then what? Unless you can service it inland, your coastline aren't going to be enough to dry dock them.

btw: As for Russia, for the first few years when China was at a disadvantage, Russia could be trusted. When China starts to launch a counter-offensive against the US, Russia may fall back to the US. We are well aware of this, but let's not forget that a few years is enough time to reactivate the various closed mines in the country.

You don't understand what I was talking about, you need "Strategic Material" not just material for war, for example, do you know Russia Iron ore is not suitable to make steel/alloy compound for military equipment? Because of its impurity? You need 70+ iron oxide to be strong enough to make weapon grade steel. Russian ore are around 35-50% FeO3 it can make a stainless steel knife, you can't use them to make tank thread or gun metal. You need to be able to re-refine it in order to make it pure enough to make Military Grade Steel.

Well, unless your idea of war is barrel made with the same steel that make butcher knife...It won't last a mag before it got burn out........

Military-Grade Steel: What It Is & How It's Used - Federal Steel Supply

Steel is commonly used in the armed forces due to its incredible resilience against weaponry like bullets and even some blasts. It is used both as a

www.fedsteel.com

btw: Considering the U.S. government's botched performance during the COVID epidemic, I'm even skeptical that the U.S. still has the ability to execute a general mobilization. How can the US government organize its citizens for a world war when they cannot even get them to wear masks? In the end, the US government will likely only be able to do so by throwing the population into the trenches to consume it. The Chinese government, on the other hand, can certainly carry out the most efficient general mobilization by precisely distributing and training its population to ensure stability and reinforcement in any field.

Are you for real? You are comparing wearing mask to general mobilisation?? Like for real? What next? You are going to compare China going to force people to go see a doctor when you cough and the US didn't and thus US cannot mobilise?? LOL

On the other hand, just the Afghan war alone, it produces 2 million veterans with the US Military community, how many military veterans that still alive in China I wonder? And you talk about throwing population in trench lol.

Dude, I served in Iraq at the very beginning stage (2003), so there are no one that are vet that's going to be older than me. Which mean there are 2 million vet like me who know how war works that they can put in the trench when push comes to shove, how many of Chinese you can put in a trench and know what to do in war but not just putting their thumb up their arse???

 

[j_hungary]

Lol in which fantasy world do you live in to have hundreds of millions of troops, hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and tens of millions of tanks, do you know how much take $$$ to manufacture/ maintain/logistics lol you only have a 7 trillion $$$ economy and USA has a 20+ trillion $$$ economy and still not able to have a hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and tens of millions of tanks

Get out of your fantasy world and lala land kid

shhhhhhh.....

You should just let them think like that, you know what they say? Don't remind your enemy when they are making a mistake........

 

[MH.Yang]

Lol in which fantasy world do you live in to have hundreds of millions of troops, hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and tens of millions of tanks, do you know how much take $$$ to manufacture/ maintain/logistics lol you only have a 7 trillion $$$ economy and USA has a 20+ trillion $$$ economy and still not able to have a hundreds of carrier fleets, tens of billions of drones and tens of millions of tanks

Get out of your fantasy world and lala land kid

You probably don't understand the structure of China's economy, which is why you're thinking about China's productivity in terms of how capital operates. The mainstay of China's economy is the state-run enterprises, and China's economic environment can be converted to a planned economy at any time. This allows the Chinese government to ignore capital and directly adjust and distribute productivity throughout the country. A hundred carrier fleets a year really isn't that hard.

 

[MH.Yang]

Again, you have no idea what I was talking about. It will not take a decade because all the service are maintained with the 1939 strategic acts. For example, the US don't use Philadelphia Naval Yard does not mean the yard is not maintained, a lot of crucial infrastructure is maintained and can be brought back to life in just a few month. The strategic depth on the issue is the US base can be rebooted while using existing equipment, those existing equipment in today term is the 10 Carrier Strike Group + whatever we have in the Mothballed Fleet, those will last until the US restarted the industrial power

On the other hand, you don't need to land in China to defeat the Industrial power, you are going to see 200 + bomber/Fighter frequently visit China and bomb the coast line.

You don't need hundred million skill "industrial" worker to maintain an industrial base.



lol, you can't use peacetime ship building (And civilian ship building no less) US don't build new ship because US is ahead of China in tonnage for a long mile. 10 US Fleet carrier is 75% of the entire PLAN tonnage, can we build 20 Fleet Carrier, sure, why not? but then who is going to staff it? I mean how do you find 5000 sailor to staff it, and then how are you going to support it and maintain it, that's not a tissue paper where you throw out once you use it, you need to be able to maintain and support those ship you build, China can build 100 carrier, and then what? Unless you can service it inland, your coastline aren't going to be enough to dry dock them.



You don't understand what I was talking about, you need "Strategic Material" not just material for war, for example, do you know Russia Iron ore is not suitable to make steel/alloy compound for military equipment? Because of its impurity? You need 70+ iron oxide to be strong enough to make weapon grade steel. Russian ore are around 35-50% FeO3 it can make a stainless steel knife, you can't use them to make tank thread or gun metal. You need to be able to re-refine it in order to make it pure enough to make Military Grade Steel.

Well, unless your idea of war is barrel made with the same steel that make butcher knife...It won't last a mag before it got burn out........



Are you for real? You are comparing wearing mask to general mobilisation?? Like for real? What next? You are going to compare China going to force people to go see a doctor when you cough and the US didn't and thus US cannot mobilise?? LOL

On the other hand, just the Afghan war alone, it produces 2 million veterans with the US Military community, how many military veterans that still alive in China I wonder? And you talk about throwing population in trench lol.

I don't know what the state of your so-called sequestered facilities is, even if your infrastructure is rotten to the core, and even if we don't know if WWII shipyards are capable of building modern warships, assuming they're still functional, what about your shipbuilders? You have no workers. The only country in the world that has enough shipbuilding workers is China, and even the shipyards in Japan and South Korea are mostly filled with Chinese workers.

Secondly, you do not have the ability to bomb Chinese territory. Relying solely on the United States air force in East Asia, the United States does not have the ability to break through China's airspace defenses. The end result is likely to be the destruction of U.S. air bases in East Asia by Chinese missiles and the retreat of U.S. aircraft carriers out of range of Chinese anti-ship missiles.

 

[j_hungary]

You probably don't understand the structure of China's economy, which is why you're thinking about China's productivity in terms of how capital operates. The mainstay of China's economy is the state-run enterprises, and China's economic environment can be converted to a planned economy at any time. This allows the Chinese government to ignore capital and directly adjust and distribute productivity throughout the country. A hundred carrier fleets a year really isn't that hard.

It's not money that's the issue, nor was it material (Well, you can use subpar material to build ship, I don't know) The issue is how do you find someone to crew the "A hundred carrier fleets a year" that does not going to end up looking like this

A Naval aviator on average need 5 to 6 years training.
A Naval CIC Officer need on average 10 years training
A Naval Captain on average need 15-20 years commanding experience
A Naval seaman require 1-2 years of service
A Naval Petty Officer (for example aviation munition technician) require 4 to 5 years of training

And you are talking about finding 2000-5000 of those times hundred EVERY FRIGGIN' YEAR to staff those 100 ships you build.

And then come the maintenance part, where are you going to drydock 100 carrier in China? How many port facilities and berth facilities do you have? Dude you have 4 or 5 port that can drydock a ship that size, how are you going to rotate 100 ship in those 4 or 5 dock a year?

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

You probably don't understand the structure of China's economy, which is why you're thinking about China's productivity in terms of how capital operates. The mainstay of China's economy is the state-run enterprises, and China's economic environment can be converted to a planned economy at any time. This allows the Chinese government to ignore capital and directly adjust and distribute productivity throughout the country. A hundred carrier fleets a year really isn't that hard.

Lol why you think carrier manufacturing is like a tissue paper manufacturing? Its takes years to manufacture/build one carrier, and and I'm not including induction proses/state trails which also takes 1.5 to 3 years


Making of hundreds of carrier fleets takes 30-60 years to complete

And what about raw materials and rear earh metals for these billions and millions of your proposed nonsense carrier fleets, drones and tanks

Think before you post crap

 

[bengalcdn]

shhhhhhh.....

You should just let them think like that, you know what they say? Don't remind your enemy when they are making a mistake........

I think you are little overconfident. The PLA was at its weakest in the 1950s. China was weak, malnourished, civil war ridden country. The US was the premier industrial and military power with Nukes. In such an environment, the PLA spanked one of Americas’s greatest generals into retirement. Douglas McArthur couldn’t outfox nor outmaneuver the PLA. His only option was to ask for nukes, after which President Truman sent poor senile McArthur packing into retirement.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

I think you are little overconfident. The PLA was at its weakest in the 1950s. China was weak, malnourished, civil war ridden country. The US was the premier industrial and military power with Nukes. In such an environment, the PLA spanked one of Americas’s greatest generals into retirement. Douglas McArthur couldn’t outfox nor outmaneuver the PLA. His only option was to ask for nukes, after which President Truman sent poor senile McArthur packing into retirement.

But it's is unrealistic figures post by some amateur thinker like @MH.Yang

 

[j_hungary]

I don't know what the state of your so-called sequestered facilities is, even if your infrastructure is rotten to the core, and even if we don't know if WWII shipyards are capable of building modern warships, assuming they're still functional, what about your shipbuilders? You have no workers. The only country in the world that has enough shipbuilding workers is China, and even the shipyards in Japan and South Korea are mostly filled with Chinese workers.

You think we only have 1 ship builder in the US??

First of all, ALL Navy Sailor are shipbuilder, that's what their rating is for, and most of ship building job is basically the same as domestic building, ie a welder in a naval yard is not much different than a welder on a mechanic shop, an electrician in a naval yard is not much different than an electrician than home building. Or do you think we don't have that kind of skilled worker that can work on an Naval Yard?

Secondly, you do not have the ability to bomb Chinese territory. Relying solely on the United States air force in East Asia, the United States does not have the ability to break through China's airspace defenses. The end result is likely to be the destruction of U.S. air bases in East Asia by Chinese missiles and the retreat of U.S. aircraft carriers out of range of Chinese anti-ship missiles.

lol, first of all, there are seaborne and sub-borne cruise missile, and then we have the air force and land base cruiser missile if Japan, South Korea is at play.

Of course it's easy to say if you are going to intercept all and destroy all, then yeah, IF YOU can do it, but well, consider this, even IDF facing subpar Hezbollah and Houthi missile and they and their actual state of the art Anti-Air defence system, there are still attack happening inside Israel, I don't know whether or not Chinese system is as good or better than the IDF, I am pretty sure US technology is better than whatever Hezbollah and Houthi is throwing at them, and then I am pretty sure your intercept rate is not going to be 100%. So if even 20% get thru, how much damage do you think it will do to China?

I mean you always win a war if you can intercept all enemy attack and destroy all enemy with your own attack, but is this really reality or just wishful thinking? Well, I digress

 

[bengalcdn]

But it's is unrealistic figures post by some amateur thinker like @MH.Yang

I don’t think he is wrong brother. The US has hollowed out their industrial capability. China on the other hand has a formidable industrial capability. China can also access vast natural resources from Russia, Central Asia etc. The whole Ukraine / Russia war shows that the global south will not support US double standards. Same in a war with China. I would say the same if China wants to invade the US. It would be impossible for China. Let’s just hope the US doesn’t try to stoke sone tension in Taiwan to create another disastrous war.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Since ancient times there have been only two ways to attack China by land, one was Korea and the other was Vietnam. The only option for the US is to use Japan and South Korea as bases to launch an attack on China through North Korea.

Okay, we land our army in Vietnam and cross the border...then what? Do a slash and burn like Gaza until your whole country is a wasteland? Is this your definition of "win"?

Or maybe we go street to street in Shanghai blowing sh*t up???
As if that accomplishes anything?

This isn't 1945.