Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
tbh this conflict has shown that the nature of next-gen fighting has changed. The J-35AE is nice and all, but it won't do anything if our air bases get overwhelmed by saturated BrahMos strikes.Current affairs should be the impetus/shot in the arm to accelerate J-35 induction. The earlier PAF has this capability, the better.
PAF needs to think technology over-match vis-a-vis the other side. Geo-politics, suppliers, induction times are all factors that need to be considered. PAF has an advantage, it needs to be realized post haste.
Dispersal is key here, and we need more airbases. Runways can be prepared very quickly. Dispersing on other alternate airfields and motorways and increasing HAS means India will run out of Brahmos very quickly and many targets, many of which will be empty HAS's. Safe to assume some Brahmos will always get through
Airbases should also have multiple runways aswell. 2-3 to make them harder to take out.
HQ-19 could be a system that could deal with a high probability of success against next-gen threats and thwart attempts at degrading its effectiveness via threshold saturation.tbh this conflict has shown that the nature of next-gen fighting has changed. The J-35AE is nice and all, but it won't do anything if our air bases get overwhelmed by saturated BrahMos strikes.
IMO, the armed forces should prioritize the following:
1. Further densify SAM coverages. Add next-gen SAMs for the short- and medium-range coverage zone for an additional layer against the BrahMos, especially if they get past the HQ-9BE and HQ-16FE. The PAF and PA should standardize on a single type with a dual - or at least swappable - ARH and IIR capability, thrust vectoring, etc. Something like the CAMM/ER or IRIS-T SL. They start at around 20 km range, but we should build on them and add the longer-ranged variants -- up to 100 km -- when available. That would fill out the tiers under the HQ-16FE (160 km) really well, thereby leaving the HQ-9BE (260 km) above that.
2. Focus on dispersal operations. The IAF knows it'll have trouble taking the PAF on the air, so we can just assume now that India will saturate BrahMos SSCMs on our air bases. MOBs and FOBs won't mean much to us now, we need to operate from our motorways. The issue is it's unclear if the JF-17 or J-10CE can operate from them. If not, then make a hard pivot to UCAVs like the Kizilelma, which potentially can. Procure and build a relatively large number of them over the long-term; one subset as an emergency air-to-air wall, and another (cheaper) subset for one-way strike missions.
3. For crewed fighters, I'd prioritize platforms that we already have, namely the J-10CE. Goal should be to bring that fleet up to 90+.
4. Figure out a way to induct a million loitering munitions of different types; some can be long-range, miniature cruise missiles, but others just electrical motor or basic piston engine types.
5. Work with North Korea and Iran on hypersonic munitions @Lulldapull
I believe this is now more a matter of when and not if it will actually occur.
The Indians could be in trouble.
IAF 2023:
5 Sqd Jaguar - 130 aircraft
3 Sqd MiG-21 - 54 aircraft
3 Sqd Mirage 2000 - 45 aircraft
3 Sqd MiG-29 - 65 aircraft
2 Sqd Rafale - 36 aircraft
12 Sqd Su-30MKI - 248 aircraft
2 Sqd Tejas - 32 aircraft
The IAF had 31 active squadrons, but of the remaining 4 squadrons that will be eliminated from the MiG-21 by 2025, one of them has already been deactivated, with the composition of the IAF standing at 30 squadrons with 556 active aircraft, which means that the IAF has 12 squadrons less than it should, around 216 aircraft in deficit to face +400 PAF fighters divided into 20 squadrons and 200 PLAAF fighters from China's Western Command(WTC), mentioning that the PAF is updating its air force for the J-10CE and the JF-17 Block III(and now the 5th generation J-31), in addition, it still plans to increase another 4 or 5 squadrons, which would put another 80-100 fighters for the IAF to face , the current posture of the IAF is very weak in maintaining a structure of 42 squadrons with somewhere around 756 aircraft to go head to head with the combined fleet of around 655-700 aircraft of the PAF and PLAAF.
Either India needs to urgently resolve the AMCA, which will only be available in 2035, or move to the F-35 or return to the Su-57. There's no way. By 2035, what will be the PAF/PLAAF's stance in theater?
Just to mention, the PLAAF's 200 fighters can still contain 5th generation J-20s, combined with a fleet of PAF J-31s, the IAF will be in trouble in the early 2030s.
It is quite possible that the J-20 fleet in the PLAAF will reach 1000 fighters by +2030, I believe that around 200 units could be under the command of the WTC, combined with a small fleet of 30-100 J-31s in the PAF.
IAF 2032-2035
5 Esqd Jaguar - 130 aircraft (eliminated by 2032)
3 Esqd MiG-21 - 54 aircraft (eliminated by 2025)
3 Esqd Mirage 2000 - 45 aircraft (eliminated by 2035)
3 Esqd MiG-29 - 65 aircraft (eliminated by 2035)
Therefore, based on orders already agreed and/or rumors of orders + some baseless speculation, the IAF in 2035 would be:
2 Sqd Rafale - 36 aircraft
12-14 Sqd Su-30MKI - 248-270 aircraft
2 Sqd Tejas Mk 1 - 32 aircraft
5 Sqd Tejas Mk 1A - 83 aircraft
= 21-23 Sqd - 399-421 aircraft
Increase through MMRCA 2.0, acquiring 114 aircraft, representing around 7 squadrons. (contract almost closing)
Also mentioned is a probable extra order for another 3 Sqd Tejas Mk 1A, representing another 54 aircraft. (recent rumors)
Order of Tejas Mk 2, probably somewhere around 5 squadrons, totaling 90 aircraft. (speculation)
= 15 Sqd - 258 aircraft
In other words, by 2035, the IAF would have between 36 and 38 squadrons totaling between 657 and 679 aircraft.
NONE OF THE 5th GENERATION AIRCRAFT.
If you were an IAF officer, you would already be working hard trying to convert this inferiority that will only intensify until 2035, at the earliest.
indigenization too. Air defence should have separate command, we under-valued it for a long time.Pakistan faces a credible threat from India’s advanced missile arsenal, particularly the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, which can strike with high speed and precision. To counter this, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) must adopt a multi-layered air defense strategy combining kinetic interceptors, directed-energy weapons (DEWs), electronic warfare (EW), and passive defense measures.
1. Layered Air Defense System (Active Protection)
Pakistan should deploy a tiered defense system to intercept missiles at different phases of flight:
A. Boost-Phase Interception (Hardest but Most Effective)
- High-Energy Lasers (HEL) & Microwave Systems – Deploy mobile laser defenses (e.g., Chinese LW-30 or Turkish ALKA) to disable missiles early in flight by overheating their guidance systems.
- Drone-Based Interceptors – Use armed drones (like Bayraktar Akıncı) to engage missile launch sites preemptively.
B. Mid-Course Interception (Kinetic & Electronic Kill)
- Long-Range SAMs – Expand HQ-9/P (Chinese) or FD-2000 batteries to target BrahMos at longer ranges.
- Electronic Warfare (EW) Jamming – Disrupt missile guidance using Chinese ASN-209 or Turkish KORAL systems to misdirect BrahMos.
C. Terminal Phase (Last-Line Defense)
- Short-Range SAMs (LY-80, FM-90, SPADA-2000) – Protect critical airbases.
- Counter-Missile Systems (Iron Dome equivalent) – Develop or acquire high-speed interceptors (like China’s HQ-17AE) for point defense.
2. Passive Defense & Deception Measures
- Hardened Aircraft Shelters (HAS) – Reinforce bunkers to withstand near-miss strikes.
- Decoys & Missile Bait – Deploy inflatable dummy aircraft (like US MALD-X) to confuse targeting.
- Underground Hangars & Dispersal Tactics – Move assets to hidden locations during crises.
3. Strategic Deterrence & Retaliation Posture
- Raider Nuclear Missiles (Babur-3, Ababeel) – Ensure India knows any missile strike risks nuclear retaliation.
- Precision Strike Backups (Ra’ad ALCM, Harbah Naval Missile) – Maintain credible second-strike capability.
4. Indigenous R&D & Foreign Partnerships
- Co-develop laser/microwave tech with China (CH-AA-01) or Turkey.
- Accelerate Hypersonic Research – Match India’s BrahMos-II threat.
Pakistan must prioritize a mix of laser/microwave disruption, layered SAMs, and deception tactics to neutralize BrahMos threats. Preemptive strike capability (via drones/SF ops) and nuclear deterrence remain crucial. Without a high-tech, multi-domain approach, PAF bases remain vulnerable.
The cheapest way is cows used on ships used on surfacetbh this conflict has shown that the nature of next-gen fighting has changed. The J-35AE is nice and all, but it won't do anything if our air bases get overwhelmed by saturated BrahMos strikes.
IMO, the armed forces should prioritize the following:
1. Further densify SAM coverages. Add next-gen SAMs for the short- and medium-range coverage zone for an additional layer against the BrahMos, especially if they get past the HQ-9BE and HQ-16FE. The PAF and PA should standardize on a single type with a dual - or at least swappable - ARH and IIR capability, thrust vectoring, etc. Something like the CAMM/ER or IRIS-T SL. They start at around 20 km range, but we should build on them and add the longer-ranged variants -- up to 100 km -- when available. That would fill out the tiers under the HQ-16FE (160 km) really well, thereby leaving the HQ-9BE (260 km) above that.
2. Focus on dispersal operations. The IAF knows it'll have trouble taking the PAF on the air, so we can just assume now that India will saturate BrahMos SSCMs on our air bases. MOBs and FOBs won't mean much to us now, we need to operate from our motorways. The issue is it's unclear if the JF-17 or J-10CE can operate from them. If not, then make a hard pivot to UCAVs like the Kizilelma, which potentially can. Procure and build a relatively large number of them over the long-term; one subset as an emergency air-to-air wall, and another (cheaper) subset for one-way strike missions.
3. For crewed fighters, I'd prioritize platforms that we already have, namely the J-10CE. Goal should be to bring that fleet up to 90+.
4. Figure out a way to induct a million loitering munitions of different types; some can be long-range, miniature cruise missiles, but others just electrical motor or basic piston engine types.
5. Work with North Korea and Iran on hypersonic munitions @Lulldapull
tbh this conflict has shown that the nature of next-gen fighting has changed. The J-35AE is nice and all, but it won't do anything if our air bases get overwhelmed by saturated BrahMos strikes.
IMO, the armed forces should prioritize the following:
1. Further densify SAM coverages. Add next-gen SAMs for the short- and medium-range coverage zone for an additional layer against the BrahMos, especially if they get past the HQ-9BE and HQ-16FE. The PAF and PA should standardize on a single type with a dual - or at least swappable - ARH and IIR capability, thrust vectoring, etc. Something like the CAMM/ER or IRIS-T SL. They start at around 20 km range, but we should build on them and add the longer-ranged variants -- up to 100 km -- when available. That would fill out the tiers under the HQ-16FE (160 km) really well, thereby leaving the HQ-9BE (260 km) above that.
2. Focus on dispersal operations. The IAF knows it'll have trouble taking the PAF on the air, so we can just assume now that India will saturate BrahMos SSCMs on our air bases. MOBs and FOBs won't mean much to us now, we need to operate from our motorways. The issue is it's unclear if the JF-17 or J-10CE can operate from them. If not, then make a hard pivot to UCAVs like the Kizilelma, which potentially can. Procure and build a relatively large number of them over the long-term; one subset as an emergency air-to-air wall, and another (cheaper) subset for one-way strike missions.
3. For crewed fighters, I'd prioritize platforms that we already have, namely the J-10CE. Goal should be to bring that fleet up to 90+.
4. Figure out a way to induct a million loitering munitions of different types; some can be long-range, miniature cruise missiles, but others just electrical motor or basic piston engine types.
5. Work with North Korea and Iran on hypersonic munitions @Lulldapull
We shouldn’t be overly concerned about acquiring new fighter jets as we already know which platforms we can upgrade or buy off the shelf, and it’s simply a question of timing. The overall plan is sound.Pakistan urgently needs to phase out its aging Mirage III/V and F-7PG fighter jets, which are becoming increasingly obsolete against modern threats. To maintain credible deterrence and ensure air superiority, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) must accelerate its modernization efforts. By 2030, here's what an ideal PAF fleet composition could look like:
Proposed PAF Fighter Fleet for 2030
1. 36 x J-35 / J-31 Stealth Fighters
- Pakistan should acquire China’s Shenyang J-35 (or export variant J-31) as its future 5th-generation stealth fighter.
- These aircraft would serve as high-end strike and air dominance platforms, countering India’s Rafales and future AMCA stealth jets.
2. 72 x J-10C "Vigorous Dragon"
- The J-10C is a proven 4.5-generation multirole fighter with AESA radar, PL-15 BVRAAMs, and strong electronic warfare capabilities.
- A fleet of 72 would form the backbone of PAF’s air defense and precision strike capability.
3. 100+ x JF-17 Block III
- The JF-17 Block III, equipped with KLJ-7A AESA radar, PL-15 missiles, and enhanced avionics, should replace older Mirage and F-7PG squadrons.
- Cost-effective yet lethal, these jets will be the workhorse of the PAF.
4. 138 x JF-17 Block 1/2 Upgraded to Block III Standard
- Existing JF-17s must be modernized to Block III configuration to maintain fleet commonality and maximize combat potential.
- This upgrade would include AESA radar, improved EW systems, and compatibility with next-gen weapons.
5. 75 x F-16 (MLU & New Acquisitions)
- Pakistan should retain and further upgrade its F-16 fleet, possibly acquiring additional used Vipers from friendly nations.
- These jets remain crucial for NATO interoperability and high-intensity conflict scenarios.
6. 24 x AZM / PFX / KAAN (5th-Gen Indigenous Fighter)
- Pakistan’s ambitious AZM (Project Azm) or a joint venture with Turkey (KAAN) should materialize by 2030.
- Even a small squadron of indigenous 5th-gen fighters would be a strategic game-changer.
Additional Considerations
- AWACS & Force Multipliers: Expand the fleet of ZDK-03 and Saab 2000 Erieye AWACS for better situational awareness.
- Drone Warfare: Accelerate the induction of armed UAVs like the Shahpar-III and CH-4B for deep strikes and reconnaissance.
- Mid-Air Refueling: Increase IL-78 tanker fleet or acquire new platforms to extend fighter reach.
- Electronic Warfare: Invest in dedicated EW aircraft and pod-based jamming systems to counter Indian S-400 threats.
By 2030, Pakistan must transition from legacy fighters to a modern, networked air force capable of deterring regional adversaries. A mix of stealth, 4.5-generation, and upgraded JF-17s—supported by force multipliers—would ensure the PAF remains a formidable force. The key lies in securing funding, accelerating indigenous projects, and strengthening defense partnerships with China and Turkey.
or with that money, put more satellites up!Motorway runways only come into effect once a conflict has started, you cannot station fighter aircrafts near runways on a permanent basis. That would require a Sweden like doctrine. Sweden is a nation of 10 million, Pakistan 260 million and still growing.
While I agree we should evolve our motorway operational strategy. We really need to secure and disperse our assets during peacetime operations, up till the moments before a conflict is likely to start.
For that, we have 69 operational airports. We could upgrade them so they are capable of military operations. Build at least half a dozen reinforced aircraft hangers at each airport. At a distance from the terminal, so they are not too visible to civilians, wouldn't want to create an enclosed mindset, with passengers seeing such hangers everywhere.
Aircrafts need not be located there all the time, but it provides sufficient dispersal infrastructure during peacetimes, while motorway runways add to that capacity during a conflict/war.
We use essential cookies to make this site work, and optional cookies to enhance your experience.