PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Ak01]

True. Same story with the J-10C versus the J-10A when Mushraff went to see it back then.

So, what course do you see as most prudent for PAF modernization? More proven J-10CP, especially to retire out the Mirages?

im kind of against J-10 procurements, i wish we hadnt to start with. Now obviously the situation is what it is but...

Chinese are losing interest in the J-10, the OEM's have bigger fish to fry, the PLAAF has more demanding requirements and the smaller suppliers will also probably switch to more lucrative contracts on the newer aircraft.

This means support for the J-10c will start to dwindle, it will become more costly and also more difficult to sustain. Beyond this, there is not a clear picture for the future of the J-10C, 15,20,30 years down the line- obviously there wont be a SLEP, so structural life is limited, there may not be an avionics upgrade either as likely PAF will be the only, or one of a few customers, meaning the OEM's dont have the incentive to do so either. Its a very grey platform atm, i cant tell what the future will be like. I suspect, within the next decade or two, alot of J-10c sustainment will come from cannibalised chinese aircraft being split to support the in service airframes in China and Abroad.

In my ideal world we would have taken the Typhoon when offered to us under ACM Aman. It was a good package with extra aircraft (Tranche 1's) thrown in for free.

Beyond this, the Euros are locking into Typhoon, with 2/3 upgrades in the works. Bare in mind Tranche 3 and J-10c we're close ish in release dates. The Euros OTOH are predicting a service life well into the 2060's for their typhoons, this basically outlines that the fleets will be ok, includes MLU's, SLEPs, assured support etc. We cant say this for J-10c's.

If i could, id have still negotiated a deal with the UK specifically- the BAE plant was in danger of being shut down because the RAF wasn't placing orders, so Türkiye got a bloody good deal. This could have easily been us.

Now, no point in could have should have would have, going forward, in my ideal world, we will pick up some used F-16's, SLEP+V upg, then by no other choice, more J-10s.

Remember, we will probably retire some F-16s, alongside our Block 1's in the next decade, its a serious fleet shortfall and with no planned replacement- if the PAF does not bulk up its J-10 numbers asap ish, theres a real possibility that if J-10 line closes, PAF will need to rely on used aircraft, or alltogether look at procuring another platform, of which most have 5-10 year waitlists. This is why you dont buy the last birds off the production line, becuse you end up like India and their Mirages lol

 

[FuturePAF]

im kind of against J-10 procurements, i wish we hadnt to start with. Now obviously the situation is what it is but...

Chinese are losing interest in the J-10, the OEM's have bigger fish to fry, the PLAAF has more demanding requirements and the smaller suppliers will also probably switch to more lucrative contracts on the newer aircraft.

This means support for the J-10c will start to dwindle, it will become more costly and also more difficult to sustain. Beyond this, there is not a clear picture for the future of the J-10C, 15,20,30 years down the line- obviously there wont be a SLEP, so structural life is limited, there may not be an avionics upgrade either as likely PAF will be the only, or one of a few customers, meaning the OEM's dont have the incentive to do so either. Its a very grey platform atm, i cant tell what the future will be like. I suspect, within the next decade or two, alot of J-10c sustainment will come from cannibalised chinese aircraft being split to support the in service airframes in China and Abroad.

In my ideal world we would have taken the Typhoon when offered to us under ACM Aman. It was a good package with extra aircraft (Tranche 1's) thrown in for free.

Beyond this, the Euros are locking into Typhoon, with 2/3 upgrades in the works. Bare in mind Tranche 3 and J-10c we're close ish in release dates. The Euros OTOH are predicting a service life well into the 2060's for their typhoons, this basically outlines that the fleets will be ok, includes MLU's, SLEPs, assured support etc. We cant say this for J-10c's.

If i could, id have still negotiated a deal with the UK specifically- the BAE plant was in danger of being shut down because the RAF wasn't placing orders, so Türkiye got a bloody good deal. This could have easily been us.

Now, no point in could have should have would have, going forward, in my ideal world, we will pick up some used F-16's, SLEP+V upg, then by no other choice, more J-10s.

Remember, we will probably retire some F-16s, alongside our Block 1's in the next decade, its a serious fleet shortfall and with no planned replacement- if the PAF does not bulk up its J-10 numbers asap ish, theres a real possibility that if J-10 line closes, PAF will need to rely on used aircraft, or alltogether look at procuring another platform, of which most have 5-10 year waitlists. This is why you dont buy the last birds off the production line, becuse you end up like India and their Mirages lol

I get where you are coming from, but we are in for a penny in for a pound, considering our options, and the immaturity of the J-35A. Perhaps switching the PAC line to make the J-10C via asking China to shift the whole line to Pakistan maybe the only way for us to sustain the fleet come the 2040s.

In which case, it maybe the fighter we may need to procure at a rate of at least 8-12 a year for the next 10 years ahead of the J-35 acquisition; ultimately ending with a fleet of 105-145 J-10s or 6-8 squadrons out of a fleet of 21 odd squadrons. If India looks set to increase its fighter squadrons dramatically, perhaps PAC would have to be able to produce 18 J-10s a year; a $1 Billion/year cost at today’s prices, but could count on 10 squadrons of J-10s by the late 2030s.

The Indians won’t get their stealth jets till the 2030s any how, so we might as well plan for our coming shortfalls, in Mirages, F-16s and early JF-17s now.

Considering, we at move down to 2 squadrons of F-16s in a decade and possibly only 8 squadrons of JF-17s, we have no time to lose to start building or procuring before the shortfalls become dire.

We may not want to go down the J-10 route, but it’s the best option we have, and thankfully it’s a decent 4.5 gen aircraft. A better platform than we could hope to upgrade the JF-17 to reach. If we focus on a truly full tech transfer and local production, it could pave the way for building a similarly sized PFX; a WS-10 or TF-35000 powered aircraft, starting in the late 2030s/early 2040s. With a full nuts and bolts J-10 tech transfer we won’t have to worry about spares when China fully loses interest. As a long term licensed producer of the jet, PAC could take on the role of the after market services for the jet beyond 2040, if China ends its support for the jet and China can secure sales assuring customers of this after market support for decades to come.

In the meantime, considering today’s news, perhaps we should try to get Qatar to buy 18-36 J-35A and offer up our PAF pilots, who are training on the jets, to operate them. Qatar gets a modern non-western bird, hard to be jammed, and we get to work out the teething issues on their dime. Win win win for Qatar, Pakistan and China. We could possibly ask Qatar to borrow a squadron for a few weeks in case of tensions with India over the next 10 years.

 

[Ak01]

I get where you are coming from, but we are in for a penny in for a pound, considering our options, and the immaturity of the J-35A. Perhaps switching the PAC line to make the J-10C via asking China to shift the whole line to Pakistan maybe the only way for us to sustain the fleet come the 2040s.

The problem is this doesnt solve the issue. You're simply just making the problem worse.

The reality is- and people wont like this, Pakistans 'production' ability is more like an assembly facility with some fabrication. Like, the JF-17 is probably less Pakistani than a SU30MKI is Indian- they're atleast trying to indigenise it, whereas for us, literally every nut, bolt, connector and raw material is all imported. Bringing the line into PAC would basically still require oems and chinese vendors to support PAC, but with far less regulation and far more shady practices, we would basically not be solving the issue unless every aspect is produced in Pakistan, this however would prohibitively increase costs and difficulty.

In which case, it maybe the fighter we may need to procure at a rate of at least 8-12 a year for the next 10 years ahead of the J-35 acquisition; ultimately ending with a fleet of 105-145 J-10s or 6-8 squadrons out of a fleet of 21 odd squadrons.

But this is the problem is, is it going to be around for 10 years to procure? Lets say the chinese want to close the line for more lucrative projects, if we've got them by the balls with orders dripfed, they will just jack up prices to compensate for the lack of work. The scales only work when they're able to churn out a ton, the price will start to hike i feel like at that point- whether its price gouging or supply side, we wont know but i wouldnt be surprised if costs near even double! scale is everything

If India looks set to increase its fighter squadrons dramatically, perhaps PAC would have to be able to produce 18 J-10s a year; a $1 Billion/year cost at today’s prices, but could count on 10 squadrons of J-10s by the late 2030s.

it would end up costing alot, with many delays

The Indians won’t get their stealth jets till the 2030s any how, so we might as well plan for our coming shortfalls, in Mirages, F-16s and early JF-17s now.

Considering, we at move down to 2 squadrons of F-16s in a decade and possibly only 8 squadrons of JF-17s, we have no time to lose to start building or procuring before the shortfalls become dire.

This is why the lack of fleet planning is kinda surprising, we'll see ourselves in an India like situation in the next decade tbh. JF-17s retiring will create a big problem for the paf

We may not want to go down the J-10 route, but it’s the best option we have, and thankfully it’s a decent 4.5 gen aircraft. A better platform than we could hope to upgrade the JF-17 to reach. If we focus on a truly full tech transfer and local production, it could pave the way for building a similarly sized PFX; a WS-10 or TF-35000 powered aircraft, starting in the late 2030s/early 2040s. With a full nuts and bolts J-10 tech transfer we won’t have to worry about spares when China fully loses interest.

But this is the misconception- pak does not have the industries to support such a project, we literally import every nut and bolt, having the tech transferred is one thing, but if all the imports come from abroad its pointless, look at PN, tech transferred yet inputs come from abroad. HIT does this right, Haider is a Chinese tank, but they've gone about sourcing as much as they can from local vendors and inside the country. People overlook HIT, but HIT has done indigenisation correctly and is the model to follow.

As a long term licensed producer of the jet, PAC could take on the role of the after market services for the jet beyond 2040, if China ends its support for the jet and China can secure sales assuring customers of this after market support for decades to come.

In the meantime, considering today’s news, perhaps we should try to get Qatar to buy 18-36 J-35A and offer up our PAF pilots, who are training on the jets, to operate them. Qatar gets a modern non-western bird, hard to be jammed, and we get to work out the teething issues on their dime. Win win win for Qatar, Pakistan and China. We could possibly ask Qatar to borrow a squadron for a few weeks in case of tensions with India over the next 10 years.

 

[RajaBaja]

We wont see J-35 in sidhu's term really. Its just entering LRIP, then will fill PLAAF/PLAN demand and honestly if the PAF was to rush buy into it without teething issues being resolved first it would be a serious blunder. You can really tell these are initial batches from the poor finishes on the aircraft when you zoom in, vs j20 or f35 finishesView attachment 145848

Whether low rate or high rate production, Chinese production is done with high precision and in a very automated fashion.

The worst manufacturing and finish one can see is in the SU-57. I've actually seen it, there are few centimeter gaps among opening bays and landing areas and two jets don't match their dimensions. The Chinese social media made a lot of fun for poor Russian manufacturing for weeks post Zhuhai air show.

 

[Ak01]

Whether low rate or high rate production, Chinese production is done with high precision and in a very automated fashion.

The worst manufacturing and finish one can see is in the SU-57. I've actually seen it, there are few centimeter gaps among opening bays and landing areas and two jets don't match their dimensions. The Chinese social media made a lot of fun for poor Russian manufacturing for weeks post Zhuhai air show.

this finish, with all its panel gaps and unevenness is not representative of a mature line, obviously it is to be improved with full scale production. Even the skin is in a rough state. Compare with F-35s or J20s.

 

[Ak01]

View attachment 145964
this finish, with all its panel gaps and unevenness is not representative of a mature line, obviously it is to be improved with full scale production. Even the skin is in a rough state. Compare with F-35s or J20s.

Lot 1 J-20



Lot 1 F35

 

[RajaBaja]

this finish, with all its panel gaps and unevenness is not representative of a mature line, obviously it is to be improved with full scale production. Even the skin is in a rough state. Compare with F-35s or J20s.

So are you saying the entire plane was "hand made" vs. automated machines

This pic you posted, is taken with a primer on. Not a finished paint job that' the most likely issue.

You don't see this issue in other images, see below.

 

[Ak01]

So are you saying the entire plane was "hand made" vs. automated machines

This pic you posted, is taken with a primer on. Not a finished paint job that' the most likely issue.

You don't see this issue in other images, see below.

View attachment 145967

View attachment 145968

A photo taken from hundreds of feet away cant be compared... You can barely see the AAR door. Not sure why i bothered taking your rubbish seriously. Also rubbish lol, the full aircraft carries its bort number and livery. It is a completed LRIP airframe. J-35's primer is green.




Primer yeah? just shut up and make a fool of yourself elsewhere

 

[RajaBaja]

A photo taken from hundreds of feet away cant be compared... You can barely see the AAR door. Not sure why i bothered taking your rubbish seriously. Also rubbish lol, the full aircraft carries its bort number and livery. It is a completed LRIP airframe

View attachment 145970

View attachment 145971
Primer yeah? just shut up and make a fool of yourself elsewhere

You as always are talking from both sides of your mouth. That means, you don't know what the real issue is. Only an idiot can compare a light primer painted aircraft still in manufacturing somewhere, with an already produced darker shaded aircraft! You also don't know what those lines are in the nose cone and called them "gaps"

Continue on making other people fools but people are actually smarter. This isn't "think tank" material. This is "tanked" thinking instead.

Nothing you write looks or seems professional because instead of debating, you start to use bad English to cover up your lack of knowledge and command on topic.

 

[Ak01]

You as always are talking from both sides of your mouth. That means, you don't know what the real issue is. Only an idiot can compare a light primer painted aircraft still in manufacturing somewhere, with an already produced darker shaded aircraft! You also don't know what those lines are in the nose cone and called them "gaps"

Continue on making other people fools but people are actually smarter. This isn't "think tank" material. This is "tanked" thinking instead.

Nothing you write looks or seems professional because instead of debating, you start to use bad English to cover up your lack of knowledge and command on topic.

nowhere did i call diverter strips gaps retard. The two pics are the same airframe you inbred lol


You're right, i will leave you to bless us with your superior knowledge... Naturally, we should strive to have such forward thinking aerospace experts in Pakistan, fingers crossed theres more of you wherever you crawled out from so you can continue to bless us with gems like...


Anyway, ill let you carry on jerking off to pics and chatgpt while i go and fly the same very systems you cream over. Stick to the video games kid

 

[RajaBaja]

nowhere did i call diverter strips gaps retard. The two pics are the same airframe you inbred lol


You're right, i will leave you to bless us with your superior knowledge... Naturally, we should strive to have such forward thinking aerospace experts in Pakistan, fingers crossed theres more of you wherever you crawled out from so you can continue to bless us with gems like...
View attachment 145982

Like I said, continue to try to fool people. It's a free world but people aren't stupid.

 

[Ak01]

Like I said, continue to try to fool people. It's a free world but people aren't stupid.

bingo,

 

[RajaBaja]

I know we all know Israel attacked Qatar yesterday. What's the impact on Pakistan? I think out air defense and fighter requirements have suddenly changed again. With immediate need for 5th gen platforms.

Some Western analysts are saying next could be Turkey!

It's obvious, our competition is with F-35 and soon with SU-57, 150 Rafales, 250 SU-30 Super Shukois and nearly 300 other jets. This attack on Qatar has made things VERY clear. 4th gen and 4.5 gen are becoming outdated real fast.

We need to get one custom version with TOT of one of the single engine stealth combat drones China showcased in their parade. We need to get some numbers from China as soon as possible so we have 5th gen platforms, and then build these locally both manned and unmanned. These should also replace Mirages and F-7's. While J-35 and KAAN will come in around 40-60's. But they should be supplemented with a local single engined stealth fighter.

 

[FuturePAF]

The problem is this doesnt solve the issue. You're simply just making the problem worse.

The reality is- and people wont like this, Pakistans 'production' ability is more like an assembly facility with some fabrication. Like, the JF-17 is probably less Pakistani than a SU30MKI is Indian- they're atleast trying to indigenise it, whereas for us, literally every nut, bolt, connector and raw material is all imported. Bringing the line into PAC would basically still require oems and chinese vendors to support PAC, but with far less regulation and far more shady practices, we would basically not be solving the issue unless every aspect is produced in Pakistan, this however would prohibitively increase costs and difficulty.





But this is the problem is, is it going to be around for 10 years to procure? Lets say the chinese want to close the line for more lucrative projects, if we've got them by the balls with orders dripfed, they will just jack up prices to compensate for the lack of work. The scales only work when they're able to churn out a ton, the price will start to hike i feel like at that point- whether its price gouging or supply side, we wont know but i wouldnt be surprised if costs near even double! scale is everything


it would end up costing alot, with many delays


This is why the lack of fleet planning is kinda surprising, we'll see ourselves in an India like situation in the next decade tbh. JF-17s retiring will create a big problem for the paf



But this is the misconception- pak does not have the industries to support such a project, we literally import every nut and bolt, having the tech transferred is one thing, but if all the imports come from abroad its pointless, look at PN, tech transferred yet inputs come from abroad. HIT does this right, Haider is a Chinese tank, but they've gone about sourcing as much as they can from local vendors and inside the country. People overlook HIT, but HIT has done indigenisation correctly and is the model to follow.

Would you say a better approach would be working with Turkey and China to procure UCAVs to fill some of the gap for now, while doubling down on the PFX, as an outgrowth of the KAAN work?

To build a TF35000 powered fighter, which can be designed in collaboration with them, based on their R&D, and have the ecosystem built up in Pakistan correctly. A 4.5 gen version initially, and later on a full 5th gen version with an internal bay, similar to the way the KFX has been done.

Knowing it’s a design that could be competitive for decades to come, investing heavily in it now, should pay dividends for decades to come.

 

[RajaBaja]

nowhere did i call diverter strips gaps retard. The two pics are the same airframe you inbred lol


You're right, i will leave you to bless us with your superior knowledge... Naturally, we should strive to have such forward thinking aerospace experts in Pakistan, fingers crossed theres more of you wherever you crawled out from so you can continue to bless us with gems like...
View attachment 145982

Anyway, ill let you carry on jerking off to pics and chatgpt while i go and fly the same very systems you cream over. Stick to the video games kid

You "fly" jets and that also stealth jets ! I am sure that thing you smoke playing Play Station called "Tobacco" is green in nature or may be crystalized for stronger effects.

I've actually seen J-35 and J-20 up close and personal in Zhuhai. They are fine machines and their finish shows precision manufacturing. If you compared it to SU-57, SU-57 looks like it was made by a damn iron smith than precision engineering. Too many gaps, uneven surfaces, metallurgy poor and RAM quoting layer looks like digital camo only.

Now today, if your brain is outside of the cloud 9, see the images. Never compare an image during development with a production image son.