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EVEN WITH A BLOODIED NOSE, INDIA CONTROLS THE LEVEL OF ESCALATION.
In the first few hours, the Pakistani Air Force fought well and demonstrat-ed that, despite the disparity in the two sides’ total conventional forces, India enjoys no overwhelming superiority in smaller-scale, technology- heavy skirmishes short of a full-scale war. This outcome, including alleged images of downed Indian Rafale jets, made headlines around the world.
That said, over the next three days, Pakistan took more damage, especial-ly as a result of the underperformance of its Chinese-made air defense sys-tems, the strong performance of India’s Russian-made equivalents, and the ability of French, Israeli, and joint Indian–Russian equipment on the Indian side to conduct long-range, high-precision strikes deep in Pakistani territory while denying Pakistan such feats. All in all, despite taking some embarrassing losses on day one,
India demonstrated its strategic advantage over Pakistan.
While Operation Sindoor was initially met with a Pakistani artillery shelling and small arms firing exchange along the Kashmiri Line of Control (LoC), Islamabad reserved the right to further respond “at a time, place, and manner of its choosing. ” Both sides claimed that the other had been conducting drone and missile strikes against its cities and air defense systems. Both India and Pakistan also claimed that their own air defense performed well in countering these attempts. May 10 also started with tit-for-tat missile strikes on both side’s air bases. Later that day, Pakistan launched its official response, Operation Bunyan-un- Marsoos (“Unbreakable Wall”), targeting Indian military bases, including in the state of Punjab in India’s internationally-recognized territory. Pakistan claimed that its operation severely damaged or destroyed over twenty Indian targets, including airfields, BrahMos storage facilities, and two S-400 air defense systems. India’s “retaliation to retaliation” saw the expansion of Operation Sindoor, thus far supposedly limited to terrorist targets, to include eleven PAF air bases selected based on their importance in terms of command and control, air defense, and drone warfare operations. The targets included the Nur Khan Air Force base near Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistani Armed Forces.
In contrast to Pakistan’s relative success in the May 8 dogfights, during the later-stage drone and missile exchanges, India’s air defense seems to have performed far better than that of Pakistan. Indian BrahMos missiles likely breached Pakistani air defenses around Lahore, Chaklala, and Sialkot and neutralized Pakistan’s Chinese-made HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defense systems. Analyses of satellite imagery by the New York Times and the Washington Post suggest that the damage inflicted by India was geographically widespread but relatively limited—probably intentionally so, since the hits appear fairly precise, targeted at specific command buildings at Nur Khan, hangars at Bholari, and airstrips at Rahim Yar Khan and Sargodha.
Pakistan’s accounts of significant damage to Indian Air Force bases cannot be corroborated, although one soldier’s family confirmed his death at Udhampur Air Force Base. India claims that its domestically-devel-oped Akashteer air defense control and reporting system adopted in 2024 played the most crucial role in detecting the incoming Pakistani projectiles.
All in all, despite downing at least one top-tier Indian jet fighter, it seems that Pakistan could not mount an effective retaliatory campaign targeting Indian and Indian-controlled Kashmiri territory. India, meanwhile, demonstrated that it is capable of striking valuable Pakistani military assets deep in Pakistani territory with relatively high precision.
It seems that while not initially overwhelming, India very much did have an edge in the conflict.
Source: Magyar Külügyi Intézet
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