Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian

[GatlingGun]

For now, the PN seems to attract a different sort of person compared to the Army and Air Force. Joining the PN is uniquely challenging because it's taxing (e.g., long deployments, and at sea no less), technically intensive (with increasing complexity), and not as prestigious.

The PN may not get as many people coming to its doors as the PA or PAF, so it has to do some level of outreach to what it considers ideal personas for officers. I also sense that it has a preference for conservative middle-class people.

OTOH, the tough nature of PN service (relative to PA/PAF) may weed more opportunistic types out because they'd need a lot more patience and grit to get to their ideal state in PN service vs. PA or PAF.

So if Imran comes back to power he should try to select next tri-service chief from Navy. Like India has CDS.

Does Pakistan have any such rank ?
COAS is for army only, right?

 

[hussain]

So if Imran comes back to power he should try to select next tri-service chief from Navy. Like India has CDS.

Last time, his illusions of grandeur convinced him he had a say in who was going to be the next ISI chief, and see where he landed up. If by some miracle he does comes back, and follows your advice, we will be enjoying his biryani and qorma. If you know what I mean......

Does Pakistan have any such rank ?
COAS is for army only, right?

COAS is constitutionally below the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, but practically speaking, it's the other way around. Hope that answers your question.

 

[DarthVader]

Did Atif Mian have the magic wand that would have compelled Bajwa to let the tax on retailers stand or what economic theory he would have presented to Bajwa and rest of the sepoy brass to bow down to him and allow tax on real estate. Better yet, what academic ingenuity and innovation he would have employed to force the sepoys to allow fair market competition against the latter's $100 bn worth of monopolies or put a stop to their multi-billion dollar worth of smuggling? Even better, what magic spell would have have cast to prevent billions worth of capital flight through money laundering from all comers sepoys, their political minions, businessmen and etc.?

If he couldn't have done any of the above, why is he being sold as a panacea to Pakistan's economic problems when everyone knows you can't make an iota of economic reform/change without dismantling the sepoy enterprise and their partners in crime the elites who have both hijacked/captured the country and its resources for their personal enrichment.

NO MAGIC wand. Nation-building takes decades upon decades. Pakistan doesn't have a large oil reserve which can change everything in a few years, and some countries with poor leadership even with oil are still struggling. You need long-term goals for the nation, now GHQ, Not Nawaz Gang or Zardari gang. for them its just a cash cow.
How many retired army chiefs live in Pakistan just check that.

If you compare the 60s and 70s state of modern European cities are comparable to today's Karachi, and Lahore.

With a Large population like Pakistan, Pakistan should have invested on public infrastructure for mass transit systems, by interconnecting cities you could have smaller hubs that can move goods from one place to another, which would have built those cities further.

Cheaper education, as Pakistan, is largely a young population country now imagine, majority of your youth is illiterate limits the options than you need Skill boot camps so at least they have options even if these are limited.

Imagine Cash. its uses for corruption to salary, Rich to Poor everyone uses that,
How about in the 2000s Pakistan should have focused on its banking system and started moving with the age. Now majority would be using the banking system to forget credit even on debit. with more flow going via banks, and people saving in banks that would have made banks stronger they could fund into public more.

Pakistan in the 60s had a stronger ship-building capacity than today.
Development of Hydro plants could have helped Pakistan in the 2000s when Tech was in its early stages, Pakistan could have at least built freakin CALL CENTERS like India even if they were able to get 1/10th of what the are getting that would still be something.

In the last 40 years, what has Pakistan built beside the motorway and Atomic Bumba?
somehow Pakistan got funds for those. similarly, if Pakistan had shown some development others would have invested.
A country with 200 Mil built a motorway for?

• Pakistan's Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 7,020,803 Unit in Dec 2022.

 

[Quwa]

Even if what you say is true it does not answer the question why Pakistan is bankrupt.

Pakistan is bankrupt because Pakistanis live above their means

To be fair, the average Pakistani doesn't live beyond their means. They don't have much to begin with. The problem starts with the middle class and then compounds exponentially as you climb up the socioeconomic ladder.

IMO, most Pakistanis will be OK with austerity because, ironically, cutting the largesse at the top will free up many resources for the bottom. Moreover, a genuine developmental policy will also benefit the bottom more because now, finally, they'll get access to health and education, which was denied to them by the top.

However, the ones who'll make the most noise about this are the elite, i.e., upper middle class and up. They've captured the economy for their benefit, live in bubbles like DHA, Bahria Town, or some other BS housing society, and want everything to serve their wants.

Every political party in Pakistan, from JUI to PPP to PML to PTI, represents this group and, ironically, none of them have ever negatively impacted this constituent. They all get in trouble in the same ways because their 90th percentile focus results in the same structural problems for the economy and state, which creates instability and, ultimately, their ouster.

If this top 10% can't change their thinking, then Pakistan's situation will get worse.

 

[Oscar]

you got to this point because you are living beyond your means. I promise you that you will not win any popularity contests telling people that. No one wants to hear it. The mismanagement happens when you need to juggle things because you are living beyond your means. There is no interest in listening to the experts if the choices are unpleasant

the narrative on PDF has always been is that we will increase the pie and all our problems will go away. Most of the ideas to increase the pie has been bunch of horseshit. Not because there are necessarily bad ideas. But no one believes the government in charge can implement those ideas. If the old PDF was alive it would be easy to point to the individual threads & posts. I have tried telling only to be poo poohed away

You’re barking up the wrong tree to trying to get it to bend - Im agreeing with what you’re saying - Im talking to what culture perpetuates it rather than what it leads to.

Pakistan as a state has been living beyond its means for the longest time and the rulers have been subsidizing this in lifestyles to perpetuate their position.

 

[SaadH]

That is not his job. He is just making comments on social media like you and me. But given his background, his comments have a lot more value than ours.

Not sure where you have been for the past five years but this guy has been touted by all comers as the savior of Pakistan's economic woes and if only IK had appointed him as the economic czar, Pakistan would've been a fully industrialized first world economy by the end of his tenure.

Plus he himself has been on a litany of forums, pontificating on what ails Pakistan's economy and offering impractical high level academic remedies that are bound to fail in Pakistan.

 

[SaadH]

What is the problem with taxing retail sales ? Just pass it to the end consumer

Consumer is price sensitive and demand is not always elastic. Retailers want to have their cake and eat it too.

 

[nahtanbob]

To be fair, the average Pakistani doesn't live beyond their means. They don't have much to begin with. The problem starts with the middle class and then compounds exponentially as you climb up the socioeconomic ladder.

IMO, most Pakistanis will be OK with austerity because, ironically, cutting the largesse at the top will free up many resources for the bottom. Moreover, a genuine developmental policy will also benefit the bottom more because now, finally, they'll get access to health and education, which was denied to them by the top.

However, the ones who'll make the most noise about this are the elite, i.e., upper middle class and up. They've captured the economy for their benefit, live in bubbles like DHA, Bahria Town, or some other BS housing society, and want everything to serve their wants.

Every political party in Pakistan, from JUI to PPP to PML to PTI, represents this group and, ironically, none of them have ever negatively impacted this constituent. They all get in trouble in the same ways because their 90th percentile focus results in the same structural problems for the economy and state, which creates instability and, ultimately, their ouster.

If this top 10% can't change their thinking, then Pakistan's situation will get worse.

I will defer to you on who is skimming the government money and living beyond their means

Pakistani in the median percentile should be accumulating small amount of savings (10-20% of his income). Even if the median Pakistani is living 5-10% above his income you are screwed as a society.

Keep in mind the biggest import item is hydrocarbons. I have not seen a breakdown in hydrocarbon consumption by different classes.

On a side note the housing bubble does not cause Pakistani current account deficit in itself. (In USA it causes the trade deficit with China). It leads to misallocation of capital in that people chase gains in housing asset values. instead of investing in more productive things. You cannot blame the Pakistani elite here. Everyone in the world has housing bubbles - China, India, USA

 

[nahtanbob]

Consumer is price sensitive and demand is not always elastic. Retailers want to have their cake and eat it too.

Sorry they cannot have it. Your army ought to tell them

 

[SaadH]

Sorry they cannot have it. Your army ought to tell them

Good joke, Army's mission statement doesn't include improvement and well being of the colonial outpost. Only to keep the subjects adquately compliant with the minimum needed to sustain the amenic status quo.

The operating expenditure is not be covered from a sustainable local enterprise, in fact doing so is a direct threat to the colonial order. Army is to make do only with bakhsheesh bestowed upon them from external patrons.

 

[Youthiya]

Sher aaya Sher aaya

 

[nahtanbob]

Good joke, Army's mission statement doesn't include improvement and well being of the colonial outpost. Only to keep the subjects adquately compliant with the minimum needed to sustain the amenic status quo.

The operating expenditure is not be covered from a sustainable local enterprise, in fact doing so is a direct threat to the colonial order. Army is to make do only with bakhsheesh bestowed upon them from external patrons.

they have the guns to tell the retailers ? Is anything else needed ?

 

[SaadH]

they have the guns to tell the retailers ? Is anything else needed ?

Guns are reserved for those wanting to bring about real structural changes for socioeconomic improvement and development

 

[nahtanbob]

Guns are reserved for those wanting to bring about real structural changes for socioeconomic improvement and development

in an ideal world

 

[GatlingGun]

To be fair, the average Pakistani doesn't live beyond their means. They don't have much to begin with. The problem starts with the middle class and then compounds exponentially as you climb up the socioeconomic ladder.

IMO, most Pakistanis will be OK with austerity because, ironically, cutting the largesse at the top will free up many resources for the bottom. Moreover, a genuine developmental policy will also benefit the bottom more because now, finally, they'll get access to health and education, which was denied to them by the top.

However, the ones who'll make the most noise about this are the elite, i.e., upper middle class and up. They've captured the economy for their benefit, live in bubbles like DHA, Bahria Town, or some other BS housing society, and want everything to serve their wants.

Every political party in Pakistan, from JUI to PPP to PML to PTI, represents this group and, ironically, none of them have ever negatively impacted this constituent. They all get in trouble in the same ways because their 90th percentile focus results in the same structural problems for the economy and state, which creates instability and, ultimately, their ouster.

If this top 10% can't change their thinking, then Pakistan's situation will get worse.

I agree most of the time Pakistanis lived within their means , but I would like to provide some more talking points to Pakistani members.

Below is the pic of REER index of PKR,
< 100 , means undervalued.
> 100 , means overvalued.

As you can see , During the last tenure of Nawaz Sharif PKR was 20% more overvalued.

Here is the last straw which broke the back of the camel.

Losing dollars , taking loans, no growth in export , living beyond the means. This is where it all happened in 4 years.