c14-Isotope
Registered Member
RBI is effectively absorbing all the FX hedging cost on the principal amount through the swap. Biggest risk to banks is interest dollars mainly.Actually, there are two components that make it possible. One is the leverage that is being offered to investors, but the more important part is that the bank is able to lend the entire leveraged up gross amount to Indian borrowers at high INR interest rates, without taking much FX risk. Without the second component , the banks will lose money since they are giving the USD loan at a lower interest rate than what they are paying for the USD deposit. That is the real magic.
Obviously, it is not free, and the central bank is taking on a lot of FX risk. Ultimately , it will come down to how well that risk is managed over the next five years when the deposits come due.
RBI may have some valuation risk, but I would not count it too much since it's a swap & there is a match between $ asset and $ obligation. Much more meaningful macro risk to RBI would be monetary policy/liquidity now that the banks are flush with rupees.


