Pakistan’s push to replace legacy aircraft

[Fatman17]

Pakistan’s Push to Replace Legacy Air Platforms

The following article is a section from an upcoming quarterly report on the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) modernization plans, which will be available to Quwa Premium subscribers on 29 March 2024. I...

quwa.org

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Then Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman added that the PAF sought to maintain a 400-strong fighter fleet so that it could hold a 1:1.35 to 1:1.75 ratio against the Indian Air Force (IAF).

Aircraft	Quantity
JF-17 Thunders	149
J-10C Indus Dragon	20
F-16 Falcon	74
J-31 Gyrfalcon
L-15 (LIFT)

So, Pakistan Air Force intends acquire a total of 157 fighter aircraft consisting Thunders, Indus Dragons, Gyrfalcons and L-15s by 2030 at the latest.

 

[Yasser76]

Aircraft	Quantity
JF-17 Thunders	149
J-10C Indus Dragon	20
F-16 Falcon	74
J-31 Gyrfalcon
L-15 (LIFT)

So, Pakistan Air Force intends acquire a total of 157 fighter aircraft consisting Thunders, Indus Dragons, Gyrfalcons and L-15s by 2030 at the latest.

It always has been and always will be a continous process, PAF will have to constantly be inducting new aircraft all the time, as when all the above is delivered our older JF-17s and F-16s will need replacing, so number will need to be higher by 2030s

Main issues may be

1) F-16 fleet may have to dwindle with no "V" upgrade in the pipeline. bY 20230s AMRAAM and APG-68 will be obsolete.

2) How many Block 1/2 Thunders will get the Block III upgrade? All of them? just Block 2s?

3) By then F-7 and Mirage should be fully gone, that is at least 5 Sqds of planes, the Mirages being valuable in Strike/Attack role.

Assuming total retirement of Mirage/F-7 fleet and partial retirement of F-16/JF-17 feet PAF may need another 300 planes by early 2030s.


Possible fleet in 2035 could be (Assuming 18 plane sqd size)

108 - J-10C
108 - J-31
108 - JF-17 Block III
54 - KAAN
54 - F-16

Above would give PAF 400 plus aircraft punch and still have a good Western/Chinese mix which is also a goal of PAF

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

It always has been and always will be a continous process, PAF will have to constantly be inducting new aircraft all the time, as when all the above is delivered our older JF-17s and F-16s will need replacing, so number will need to be higher by 2030s

Main issues may be

1) F-16 fleet may have to dwindle with no "V" upgrade in the pipeline. bY 20230s AMRAAM and APG-68 will be obsolete.

2) How many Block 1/2 Thunders will get the Block III upgrade? All of them? just Block 2s?

3) By then F-7 and Mirage should be fully gone, that is at least 5 Sqds of planes, the Mirages being valuable in Strike/Attack role.

Assuming total retirement of Mirage/F-7 fleet and partial retirement of F-16/JF-17 feet PAF may need another 300 planes by early 2030s.


Possible fleet in 2035 could be (Assuming 18 plane sqd size)

108 - J-10C
108 - J-31
108 - JF-17 Block III
54 - KAAN
54 - F-16

Above would give PAF 400 plus aircraft punch and still have a good Western/Chinese mix which is also a goal of PAF

Lol there will be not much J10C and J-31 in PAF 75-90 J10C and 36-72 J-31 and 50-75 JF-17 BLK III would be fine

Don't need to replace Mirages/F-7 on one on basis because the jets will replacing these legacy jets several times more advanced than Mirages and F'7

 

[Yasser76]

Lol there will be not much J10C and J-31 in PAF 75-90 J10C and 36-72 J-31 and 50-75 JF-17 BLK III would be fine

Don't need to replace Mirages/F-7 on one on basis because the jets will replacing these legacy jets several times more advanced than Mirages and F'7

I am aware of that, former ACM stated 400 fighters, also capability of enemy's fighter is also increasing (albeit very slowly)

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

It always has been and always will be a continous process, PAF will have to constantly be inducting new aircraft all the time, as when all the above is delivered our older JF-17s and F-16s will need replacing, so number will need to be higher by 2030s

Main issues may be

1) F-16 fleet may have to dwindle with no "V" upgrade in the pipeline. bY 20230s AMRAAM and APG-68 will be obsolete.

2) How many Block 1/2 Thunders will get the Block III upgrade? All of them? just Block 2s?

3) By then F-7 and Mirage should be fully gone, that is at least 5 Sqds of planes, the Mirages being valuable in Strike/Attack role.

Assuming total retirement of Mirage/F-7 fleet and partial retirement of F-16/JF-17 feet PAF may need another 300 planes by early 2030s.


Possible fleet in 2035 could be (Assuming 18 plane sqd size)

108 - J-10C
108 - J-31
108 - JF-17 Block III
54 - KAAN
54 - F-16

Above would give PAF 400 plus aircraft punch and still have a good Western/Chinese mix which is also a goal of PAF

I would imagine the JF-17 Thunder Blocks 1 and 2 being replaced with Block-3 or "PFX" as they retire so JF-thunder is likely to maintain largest fleet in PAF.

KAAN is no longer an option. Some of the progress from that program is likely to be transferred to the PFX project.

400 manned fighter aircraft and whatever number of UCAVs PAF can maintain.

 

[Fatman17]

Lol there will be not much J10C and J-31 in PAF 75-90 J10C and 36-72 J-31 and 50-75 JF-17 BLK III would be fine

Don't need to replace Mirages/F-7 on one on basis because the jets will replacing these legacy jets several times more advanced than Mirages and F'7

Capability of one JF-17 lll = at least 2-3 F-7 or Mirage as per the ACM.

 

[Ali_Baba]

KAAN is no longer an option. Some of the progress from that program is likely to be transferred to the PFX project.

Why do you think that ?

 

[Fatman17]

Between KAAN and J-31 current progress l believe KAAN is ahead at this stage and it has the full focus of the Turkish Aerospace Industries whilst the Chinese have too many projects ongoing as they try to match what's available with the leading Western AirForces.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Why do you think that ?

KAAN was a wish by the PAF but it sees the US interfering in that acquisition like it did with the Turkish helicopters.

J-31's "foundations have already been laid" in Pakistan as per the Air Chief.

Makes no sense for Pakistan to go for western aircraft when it's deepening it's strategic relations with China.

Pakistani Manned Combat Aircraft Arsenal by 2030

Aircraft	Origin
JF-17 Thunder	China
J-10C Indus Dragon	China
F-16 Fighting Falcons	US
J-31 Gyrfalcon	China
L-15 (LIFT)	China
Z-10ME	China

The relationship between China and Pakistan is likely to be similar to the United States and the United Kingom's strategic relationship.

No doubt some are trying to disturb this development, hence, Pakistan keeps insisting it wants a mix bag but only concentrates on the Chinese acquisitions.

 

[Fatman17]

KAAN was a wish by the PAF but it sees the US interfering in that acquisition like it did with the Turkish helicopters.

J-31's "foundations have already been laid" in Pakistan as per the Air Chief.

Makes no sense for Pakistan to go for western aircraft when it's deepening it's strategic relations with China.

Pakistani Manned Combat Aircraft Arsenal by 2030

Aircraft	Origin
JF-17 Thunder	China
J-10C Indus Dragon	China
F-16 Fighting Falcons	US
J-31 Gyrfalcon	China
L-15 (LIFT)	China
Z-10ME	China

The relationship between China and Pakistan is likely to be similar to the United States and the United Kingom's strategic relationship.

No doubt some are trying to disturb this development, hence, Pakistan keeps insisting it wants a mix bag but only concentrates on the Chinese acquisitions.

Pakistan doesn't want to put all it's eggs in one basket as it did with the USA in the past and got burned by the sanctions which were partly Pakistan's doing. It could happen again with the Chinese hence the Turkish option is a important relationship to have. HST Turkey has also learnt it's lesson with sanctions and most certainly is going for indigenous aircraft engines both for the T-129 and KAAN.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Pakistan doesn't want to put all it's eggs in one basket as it did with the USA in the past and got burned by the sanctions which were partly Pakistan's doing. It could happen again with the Chinese hence the Turkish option is a important relationship to have. HST Turkey has also learnt it's lesson with sanctions and most certainly is going for indigenous aircraft engines both for the T-129 and KAAN.

Turkey has ben seeing the cruelest sanctions from the West. So, by 2030s all components of KAAN, including engine, ejection seat etc., will be 100% indigenous....

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Pakistan doesn't want to put all it's eggs in one basket as it did with the USA in the past and got burned by the sanctions which were partly Pakistan's doing. It could happen again with the Chinese hence the Turkish option is a important relationship to have. HST Turkey has also learnt it's lesson with sanctions and most certainly is going for indigenous aircraft engines both for the T-129 and KAAN.

The US and Pakistani relationship is different to the Sino-Pak relationship in my humble opinion.

The US could/would come and go but China isn't going anywhere.

The US would pay Pakistan for a limited strategic service but China hasn't shown any signs of globe-trotting.

 

[Fatman17]

The US and Pakistani relationship is different to the Sino-Pak relationship in my humble opinion.

The US could/would come and go but China isn't going anywhere.

The US would pay Pakistan for a limited strategic service but China hasn't shown any signs of globe-trotting.

So far.....

 

[Fatman17]