As of the first half of this year, the number of cars over 10 years old exceeded 32 million, which is 71% of the entire Russian fleet. Such data was provided to socialbites.ca by the founder of the Automarketer project Oleg Moseev. At the end of 2021, the number of…
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Return of scrap cars: after 2021 the car fleet in Russia will decrease rapidly The number of cars older than ten years in the Russian car fleet exceeded 70% 08/01/2024, 06:00
By
ANIKA
August 1, 2024
As of the first half of this year, the number of cars over 10 years old exceeded 32 million, which is 71% of the entire Russian fleet. Such data was provided to socialbites.ca by the founder of the Automarketer project Oleg Moseev. At the end of 2021, the number of such vehicles was less than 27.2 million units.
closed
one hundred%
Alina Dzhus/socialbites.ca
At the same time, the number of new cars in operation between 1-3 years old (see infographic for more details),
It has almost halved in the last 2.5 years.
“Yes, as you can see, the main target segment of dealers (cars with a warranty) has been shrinking in recent years. And significantly – from 4.2 to 2.2 million,” Moseev said.
If at the end of 2021 there were 3.16 million cars aged 4-5 years on Russian roads, now this number is already more than 5.15 million.
Why don’t Russians buy new cars?
The average age of a passenger car in Russia in 2024, according to the analytical agency Autostat
reached It means 15.2 years.
Last year, the average car on Russian roads aged by 6 months.
More than 1.5 million new cars need to be sold in Russia annually to rejuvenate the country’s car fleet, but the Russian market has not reached that figure for several years, Avtostat CEO Sergei Tselikov told socialbites.ca.
“If more than 2 million cars are sold per year, the car fleet will be at least a little younger.
We have imported quite a lot of used cars in the last two years,” Tselikov said.
The interlocutor emphasized that due to high prices, people are forced to buy second-hand imported cars. Tselikov added that the upcoming increase in the recycling fee will directly accelerate the negative dynamics of the increase in the average age of vehicles, as this will be followed by a very strong jump in prices for new cars, which will reduce demand for them.
“If the new car market reaches 1.5 million cars per year in the coming years, the average age will continue to increase. Moreover, 2-3 months can be added to this figure every year,” he predicts.
Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Association (NAU), admits that now there are all conditions for the degradation of the country’s vehicle fleet due to the shrinkage of the new car market.
“The fleet renewal rate will slow down because
Increased recycling fee will make cars even cheaper for Russians.
If trends continue, it will be possible to say that the average age of cars will soon exceed 16 years,” Shaparin told socialbites.ca.
Autostat’s basic sales forecast for 2024 is exactly 1.5 million cars. The marketing agency NAPI gives a much more alarming forecast –
1.1 million cars will be sold by the end of this year.
The Russian Automobile Dealers Association predicts that the market will be 1.3 million vehicles in the pessimistic scenario and 1.65 million in the optimistic scenario. Detailed information about the situation in the Russian market on the eve of a significant increase in prices for new cars
Wrote “socialbites.ca”.
Debris on the roads
The situation is getting worse as the average age of cars increases, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.
“If we consider the actual functioning of cars, we understand that in the last two years, many old cars have come onto the roads. If earlier they were standing in someone’s yard, now these cars have been repaired and are on the roads.
“The real situation on the roads has become worse than on paper,” he said.
— Kadakov argues in a conversation with socialbites.ca.
According to Anton Shaparin from the USA, the number and severity of accidents are increasing due to the large number of old emergency vehicles on the roads. This type of transport lacks many passive safety elements, such as basic ones, such as the exchange rate stabilization system, and modern active electronic assistants. Old domestic cars suffer especially badly from this; even now they come off the assembly line without ABS and ESP. The problem is that in Russia there are no statistics on accidents caused by automakers.
“In the event of an accident, we rarely analyze its causes. It is clear that the old fleet was always a problem, but there were no normal statistics, and control and supervision over the causes of accidents due to poor technical condition are not actually carried out,” Shaparin said.
The Russian car fleet is rapidly aging: if at the end of 2021 there were about 3 million cars aged 4-5 years on our roads, now there are almost twice as many. Two-thirds of the country’s car fleet consists of old, poorly maintained cars that can cause an accident at any time. Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca say that this trend will accelerate due to the increase in recycling collection and the high cost of loans.
Source: Gazeta