Viet
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- Jun 18, 2012
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I am not military, but let’s assume the russians want to pull the trick.lol, even the best equipped Russian force didn't do any maneuver warfare at all, the only instant they tried is when they attack Hostomel at the very beginning of this war. They failed after they failed to secure the airfield, and then the famous convoy and withdraw happened.
If they can maneuver like that with a 2 points pincer, they would have done it in Mariupol, they would have done Izium, they would have done it in Bakhmut, they would have done it in Siverodonetsk, they would have done it in Avdiivka, instead of spending 5 month to take Bakhmut, spending 7 to take Avdiivka....
Fighting a war is not just drawing 2 lines on a map and then saying this is what we need to do. Everyone knows that, if they can do that, they would have taken Kyiv back in April 2022......
For a pincer movement the russians need about 4:1 military strength as attacking force. Ukraine has about 5 attacking mech brigades in Kursk, probably 2 in reserve, in total 7.
So Putin has the choice.
(1) pulling 28 brigades out from the Donbas, and move them to Kursk. With the risk the entire Donbas front will collapse.
(2) moving the young conscripts to Kursk and let them die fighting
(3) general mobilization. all men are called in.
(4) close the eye, increase cheap propaganda. Putin tells the russian population “all will be good.”