The Ukrainian army's offensive in Kursk is characterized by continuous assaults, always probing for weaknesses. Wherever there's a gap, they try to exploit it, avoiding the main Russian forces whenever possible and aiming to capture more territory. However, unless Ukraine has a significantly large army and abundant weaponry, this strategy risks spreading their forces too thin. Surprisingly, Russia's reinforcements and counterattacks in Kursk aren't as all-out as l initially expected; it's not like a full-scale national mobilization reminiscent of a Great Patriotic War effort. Instead, it seems that there are only a limited number of reinforcements, possibly less than half of Ukraine's forces, engaging in a game of hide-and-seek with the Ukrainian troops. The Kursk area is sparsely populated, with a population of less than 100,000 spread over 5,000 square kilometers. There isn't even a single real city with more than 10,000 inhabitants. The true main Russian forces are likely stationed further away in more central, key cities. Initially, I was shocked, but now I'm beginning to understand the changing situation. The potential for Ukrainian success in that area is limited, and they're unlikely to achieve any significant strategic gains. If Ukraine continues to escalate its involvement there, it might actually be beneficial for progress and conclusion of the war. At least now, we can observe that the Russian army has recently captured more than 30 square kilometres of land in eastern Ukraine in a single day, including many key positions-something that's been almost unheard of in the past two years.
Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates
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The Ukrainian army's offensive in Kursk is characterized by continuous assaults, always probing for weaknesses. Wherever there's a gap, they try to exploit it, avoiding the main Russian forces whenever possible and aiming to capture more territory. However, unless Ukraine has a significantly large army and abundant weaponry, this strategy risks spreading their forces too thin. Surprisingly, Russia's reinforcements and counterattacks in Kursk aren't as all-out as l initially expected; it's not like a full-scale national mobilization reminiscent of a Great Patriotic War effort. Instead, it seems that there are only a limited number of reinforcements, possibly less than half of Ukraine's forces, engaging in a game of hide-and-seek with the Ukrainian troops. The Kursk area is sparsely populated, with a population of less than 100,000 spread over 5,000 square kilometers. There isn't even a single real city with more than 10,000 inhabitants. The true main Russian forces are likely stationed further away in more central, key cities. Initially, I was shocked, but now I'm beginning to understand the changing situation. The potential for Ukrainian success in that area is limited, and they're unlikely to achieve any significant strategic gains. If Ukraine continues to escalate its involvement there, it might actually be beneficial for progress and conclusion of the war. At least now, we can observe that the Russian army has recently captured more than 30 square kilometres of land in eastern Ukraine in a single day, including many key positions-something that's been almost unheard of in the past two years.
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Not so quickSo they basically created a new cauldron for themselves . Great jobUkraine
Ukraine has allocated 8 brigades for the assault on Kursk and Belgorod. Ukraine attacking forces have tanks, armored vehicles, air cover, fighter jets, helicopters, drones, long range missiles, full combined armed operations. The russians must have at least 4x8= 32 brigades to encircle the Ukraine brigades. Good luck.
I add that all the advancing Ukrainian icons are groups of 10 men, who go on reconnaissance missions and are spotted and eliminated every time.
First of all, Ukraine weren't stretching the force thin, because that was an uncontested flank. 22, 80 and 82nd Brigade were all reinforcing the TDF brigade guarding the Northern Flank, they were posted there because Russian had amassed 20k troop near Sumy back in May.
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These 3 Brigade (I don't know where the other 2 Brigade came from, most likely from Capital Defence) were stationed in the Sumy area already. It wasn't drawing their force from the South (Which mostly 54th, 55th, 56th, 92nd, 93rd and some TDF Brigade)
Now, you can argue after they figured out Sumy region is a nothing burger and they should dump that 3 Brigade south and fight it out with the Russian, but as far as the situation go, if Ukrainian stretch thin, you will see Russian trying to make a big push in the south once the Northern Group going inside Russia, this had not yet happen even tho we are at the 9th day of Kursk Invasion, suggest that at least at this stage, the Russian think the Ukrainian weren't thinning out the South, but then this is still early, if a month goes by and the Russian still not making a move, then we know for sure the Ukrainian Southern Defence were not at all affected by this incursion. That's we will see.
Second, there won't be any mobilisation, because if Russia call for troop, they have to admit something is not right. It's not a patriotic war when you invaded someone first, he can spin the opinion and justify it however he wanted but he can't spin the fact that he invaded first, if they mobilise now after Ukraine incursion, it will make Putin looks like he lost control of his own border, and now call for help, the term 'Biting off more than you can chew" come to mind. Well, in reality he was, but he can't let the Russian think that, the fact is even Russian State TV saying and prepping the people this is going to be a long run and admitting the situation is "Difficult", he can't mobilise now. Otherwise it make him look like a failure
Putin have to make do with internal security troop and conscript to deal with this, or move some of the troop from the South if he want done quicker.
And finally, there are NO Strategic Gain, NOTHING, in Kursk for the Ukrainian. Anything that have actual gain would have to be able to conquer the entire Oblast or at least part that you can anchor your offensive on, It's like saying Russia have Strategic Gain in Kherson when they lose the only city that matter and now just control a large swath of uninhabited land.
The goal for the Ukrainian is to make Russia choose, from now on until the end of Kursk operation, where they want their resource to go. They can't double their resupply effort overnight, which mean they have to choose what resource go where, and as I said numerous time, you can have all the troop stayed in the South, as long as you halve the supplies, you can only fight half of the time. That is the Ukrainian goal, not wanting to conquer all the Kursk and have an independence referendum call like the Russian.
And by the way, you didn't think wrong, you are thinking according to what you can accept as a fact, that's why the post had been moved multiple time in the last 9 days, that is a sign you are going in the wrong direction. Because no matter how a battle was fought, the ground reality stays the same, if you are interpreting it one way at one time and another way another time, it means you are choosing the narrative, instead of having the narrative speak for itself. If you look at what I said over the last 9 days, it didn't change much, I don't believe it can last long (long as in 6 months or a year) then at the first day, I don't believe it now, I don't believe in this is a move to negotiate then, I don't believe it now, I don't believe Russia can deal with it effectively on day 1, I don't believe it now.
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