The Munir Doctrine

[FuturePAF]

Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir

Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan's traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s...

www.mei.edu

Gen. Asim Munir's "Doctrine" Released | Why, How & WTF with Michael Kugelman

Hard talking #pakistani journalist #wajahatsaeedkhan covers #pakistan #pakistannews #pakistanarmy and the #pakistani diaspora like nobody else. His latest re...

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What to make of this doctrine? Pakistan not wanting to be drawn into great power politics, for instance, which IMHO would be great if possible.

Perhaps, If both the US and Pakistan can look past the short term potential of dealing with potential threats emanating from Afghanistan kinetically, and look to longer term potential of getting Afghanistan on board with a western economic push into Central Asia, as well as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs pushing back, in a unified way, on Iranian influence on Iran’s Northern and Eastern Flank, as well as pushing back on Russian Influence on their southern under belly. This especially in light of the great push for minerals for the EV transition.

Gen. Munir is right to focus on CARs, but how it gets it done is the real crux of the matter. In that regard, the elections will be crucial for striking while the iron is hot. Allowing the PTI to contest freely, but allowing SMQ run for the PM post and IK as President (a non-elected role?), Moonis Elahi as FM (to give him a prominent role, win votes in Northern Punjab, and raise a new generation of a potential PM) would be a pragmatic solution (to attract FDI and remittances) if coupled with bringing in the best experts in every field from within the country and the diaspora (such as Atif Mian for the Finance minister post) for cabinet positions, but also to lead a Pakistani version of MITI (an advisory body that dictates industrial policy for the country on the model followed by Post-war Japan). SMQ is also well connected in the west, and has served with PTI but also PPP, a good candidate with international experience to help rebrand the national brand, democratic and economic focus (within the limits of our interests). IK as the president and highest civilian position in the country could be the soft side / good cop in building relations with the Afghans and the Mil could be the hard hand, hence why a non-bases but economic first approach and a stronger Pakistan Mil to handle terror threats maybe below any thresholds the Afghans may have if it is in the form of a “skirmish”, should that ever become necessary.

An important point, which Wajahat and Michael points out from 25:00 onwards, and that in the recent visit by Gen. Munir to NY and DC he went to bat for the Kashmir issue, meeting with the UN Secretary General and think tanks in DC.

Shabaz Sharif also backtracked on trade but if India changes its stance on Kashmir and article 370, which would make him not that different from IK, and that Nawaz stance is not much different then his brother’s stance.

Nawaz also shouldn’t be brought back in, because he is chief amongst the failed industrialist class, and would push back on any reforms that end elite capture. He would also oppose any tax reforms such as property tax. (Any new government shouldn’t be dependent on the PPP, as they will almost certainly oppose land reforms. Not saying that other parties will support land reforms, but may see it as less core to most of their constituencies interests).

15:32-17:06 per Moonis Elahi: The sharifs can’t handle anyone else’s opinion, can’t work with anyone else, they won’t do anything themselves and will just get two sets of stooges to fight each other.

IMHO, Pakistan needs a stance like an Azad Kashmir (akin to West Germany) that can be built up over the next few decades, waiting in the wings until a peaceful possibility of freedom presents itself, in the mean time trade with India (always protecting our industries from Indian competitors) but not conceding anything on Kashmir.

IMHO, These are the States Pakistan needs to focus on to gain global importance again. I’ll have to brush on my Russian

This area is the convergence of the Russian world (Russki Mir), the Turkic world, the Persian world, growing Chinese influence and South Asian influence. The four sided Lodo board Pakistan needs to focus on.


A lot is happening in Central Asia. A lot of money to be made, a lot of global importance to be gained.

 

[Sainthood 2.0]

Instead of one man's doctrine who'll be here for 2-4 years max

Make a long term national doctrine that'll be followed by all parties on a long term basis

 

[FuturePAF]

Instead of one man's doctrine who'll be here for 2-4 years max

Make a long term national doctrine that'll be followed by all parties on a long term basis

It’s an aspirational document, not that different from the 2022-2026 National security document put out in 2021 in the time of the IK administration.

The key element not spelled out are the internal reforms necessary to adequately be able to focus and pivot to a long term foreign policy strategy. The last 50 years, especially post 1971, the national strategy seems to have been unify the nation under a more common Islamic identity and deal with the Afghan instability. Both have successfully but at the cost of a focus on economics.

https://static.theprint.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/NSP.pdf

National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026 - An appraisal | The Express Tribune

The much-touted National Security Policy of Pakistan (NSP) 2022-2026 is out after much fanfare

tribune.com.pk

This is the time we need to consolidate on Afghanistan, normalizing relations on favorable economic and security terms, and focus on Central Asia. If Pakistan can be the indispensable nation for the GCC and the west to get to Central Asia, under the noses of the Iranians and Russians, Pakistan will have found its place in the geopolitical and geo-economic landscape secure.

This is especially the time to do this, as Biden met this year with all the CARS at one meeting.

 

[Sainthood 2.0]

It’s an aspirational document, not that different from the 2022-2026 National security document put out in 2021 in the time of the IK administration.

Yes because ik also argued for balancing ties with everyone and whatever propaganda maybe against munir

We are engaging all sides - Russians, Americans, Chinese, GCC

So that's true unless one's biased and can't see

The key element not spelled out are the internal reforms necessary to adequately be able to focus and pivot to a long term foreign policy strategy. The last 50 years, especially post 1971, the national strategy seems to have been unify the nation under a more common Islamic identity and deal with the Afghan instability. Both have successfully but at the cost of a focus on economics.

Sure I am a young man

But this is the most divided we have ever been as a country
Islamic identity didn't unite us - it probably radicalized us if anything but definitely didn't unite us

https://static.theprint.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/NSP.pdf

National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026 - An appraisal | The Express Tribune

The much-touted National Security Policy of Pakistan (NSP) 2022-2026 is out after much fanfare

tribune.com.pk

This is the time we need to consolidate on Afghanistan,

We are about to start a forever war with Afghanistan
I hope not but it can happen

normalizing relations on favorable economic and security terms, and focus on Central Asia. If Pakistan can be the indispensable nation for the GCC and the west to get to Central Asia, under the noses of the Iranians and Russians, Pakistan will have found its place in the geopolitical and geo-economic landscape secure.

 

[FuturePAF]

Yes because ik also argued for balancing ties with everyone and whatever propaganda maybe against munir

We are engaging all sides - Russians, Americans, Chinese, GCC

So that's true unless one's biased and can't see

Sure I am a young man

But this is the most divided we have ever been as a country
Islamic identity didn't unite us - it probably radicalized us if anything but definitely didn't unite us


We are about to start a forever war with Afghanistan
I hope not but it can happen

This is why I urge caution, and to allow IK to come back. But on the back of his return, carry out the deep reforms to spread prosperity to the many, unify the nation around a Justice system and some basic social services delivered well, and a focus on economics, which will see the young aim for putting their energy in useful and applicable education and employnent.

A return of IK could also help soften our approach to Afghanistan, lowering the tensions between the two countries, and prevent us from squandering 50 years of sunk cost in Afghanistan, with a more human development and symbiotic relationship, around mining and processing.

We must not give bases to any outside power, and be empowered to only let our armed forces carry out any strikes or commando raids, if necessary, ourselves.

Ideally, we should have the capacity to do commando raids carried out by ethnic Pashtun FC soldiers, laying siege to militant compounds, and capturing miscreants alive, and use them to bargain a long term deal with the tribes and local Talib commanders they are affiliated with. In this way keeping any actions below the threshold of a vendetta, and in the realm of a police like matter.

On the issue of unity, it’s true that it hasn’t gone as planned, perhaps because it came out of the blue and as a knee jerk reaction to the loss of East Pakistan.

Nowadays, we have a large youth population and educated enough to know what is possible. Organically it is emerging (or re-emerging), and can’t be ignored any longer; Aspirations to try to return to the balancing act laid out when the nation was founded, and that motivated the dynamism of the pre-1958 Pakistan.

IK may not be the best brain for the nation, but he does embody in a sense its heart, in spite of all his contradictions, just like the country. Japan in the post war era was allowed to keep its Emperor because it gave the Japanese people a sense of their identity, through all the changes. IK is the embody of the national identity for so many people. This is why, the path to actual unity must not be imposed, as has been tried, but allowed to grow organically.

The fact the world, by and large, doesn’t want to deal with Pakistan means it is also less likely to interfere in our affairs, and that gives us room to set our own course. India wants to avoid any military engagements for a few decades to grow during their 20 year window of their demographic dividend. We must be mindful of their desires not their words.

Much smarter people then I can postulate how to thread the needle, all I hope is the totality of possibilities and outcomes are assessed before we act too brashly. Good things come to those with patience, we must chose a path that people can go along with and feel it is an extension of their own aspirations.

 

[nahtanbob]

Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir

Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan's traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s...

www.mei.edu

Gen. Asim Munir's "Doctrine" Released | Why, How & WTF with Michael Kugelman

Hard talking #pakistani journalist #wajahatsaeedkhan covers #pakistan #pakistannews #pakistanarmy and the #pakistani diaspora like nobody else. His latest re...

www.youtube.com

What to make of this doctrine? Pakistan not wanting to be drawn into great power politics, for instance, which IMHO would be great if possible.

Perhaps, If both the US and Pakistan can look past the short term potential of dealing with potential threats emanating from Afghanistan kinetically, and look to longer term potential of getting Afghanistan on board with a western economic push into Central Asia, as well as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs pushing back, in a unified way, on Iranian influence on Iran’s Northern and Eastern Flank, as well as pushing back on Russian Influence on their southern under belly. This especially in light of the great push for minerals for the EV transition.

Gen. Munir is right to focus on CARs, but how it gets it done is the real crux of the matter. In that regard, the elections will be crucial for striking while the iron is hot. Allowing the PTI to contest freely, but allowing SMQ run for the PM post and IK as President (a non-elected role?), Moonis Elahi as FM (to give him a prominent role, win votes in Northern Punjab, and raise a new generation of a potential PM) would be a pragmatic solution (to attract FDI and remittances) if coupled with bringing in the best experts in every field from within the country and the diaspora (such as Atif Mian for the Finance minister post) for cabinet positions, but also to lead a Pakistani version of MITI (an advisory body that dictates industrial policy for the country on the model followed by Post-war Japan). SMQ is also well connected in the west, and has served with PTI but also PPP, a good candidate with international experience to help rebrand the national brand, democratic and economic focus (within the limits of our interests). IK as the president and highest civilian position in the country could be the soft side / good cop in building relations with the Afghans and the Mil could be the hard hand, hence why a non-bases but economic first approach and a stronger Pakistan Mil to handle terror threats maybe below any thresholds the Afghans may have if it is in the form of a “skirmish”, should that ever become necessary.

An important point, which Wajahat and Michael points out from 25:00 onwards, and that in the recent visit by Gen. Munir to NY and DC he went to bat for the Kashmir issue, meeting with the UN Secretary General and think tanks in DC.

Shabaz Sharif also backtracked on trade but if India changes its stance on Kashmir and article 370, which would make him not that different from IK, and that Nawaz stance is not much different then his brother’s stance.

Nawaz also shouldn’t be brought back in, because he is chief amongst the failed industrialist class, and would push back on any reforms that end elite capture. He would also oppose any tax reforms such as property tax. (Any new government shouldn’t be dependent on the PPP, as they will almost certainly oppose land reforms. Not saying that other parties will support land reforms, but may see it as less core to most of their constituencies interests).

15:32-17:06 per Moonis Elahi: The sharifs can’t handle anyone else’s opinion, can’t work with anyone else, they won’t do anything themselves and will just get two sets of stooges to fight each other.

IMHO, Pakistan needs a stance like an Azad Kashmir (akin to West Germany) that can be built up over the next few decades, waiting in the wings until a peaceful possibility of freedom presents itself, in the mean time trade with India (always protecting our industries from Indian competitors) but not conceding anything on Kashmir.

IMHO, These are the States Pakistan needs to focus on to gain global importance again. I’ll have to brush on my Russian

This area is the convergence of the Russian world (Russki Mir), the Turkic world, the Persian world, growing Chinese influence and South Asian influence. The four sided Lodo board Pakistan needs to focus on.
View attachment 2603

A lot is happening in Central Asia. A lot of money to be made, a lot of global importance to be gained.

You want USA to align with Pakistan to build a bloc of Central Asian states. If China, Iran, Russia and India oppose the venture you can guess the chances of success. For starters China and Russia do not want a peer competitor making inroads into their backyard.

The preference for 60 million Central Asians over 250 million Pakistanis settles the trajectory of the Munir doctrine.

USA needs India to counter China. That is not going away for decades

 

[Ali_Baba]

The "Munir" Doctrine is to bury your head in the sand over the consequences of your decisions ?!

Fake news being used to portray state in decline: COAS

Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir said on Friday that fake news was being used to promote the...

www.brecorder.com

 

[Imran Khan]

The "Munir" Doctrine is to bury your head in the sand over the consequences of your decisions ?!

Fake news being used to portray state in decline: COAS

Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir said on Friday that fake news was being used to promote the...

www.brecorder.com

جرلن صاحب اپنی ہی دنیا مین رہتے ہیں انکو ڈسٹرب نا کیا جائے ۔ جب بندہ دن رات 500 ایس ایس جی کمانڈوز کے نرغے میں ہو اسکی ویسے ہی مت ماری جاتی ہے

 

[Dalit]

You want USA to align with Pakistan to build a bloc of Central Asian states. If China, Iran, Russia and India oppose the venture you can guess the chances of success. For starters China and Russia do not want a peer competitor making inroads into their backyard.

The preference for 60 million Central Asians over 250 million Pakistanis settles the trajectory of the Munir doctrine.

USA needs India to counter China. That is not going away for decades

These are facts. Munir and predecessors like him live in an isolated world. It seems that these generals are oblivious to ground realities. China and Russia will never allow the US entry through Pakistan. Yet, this COAS thinks he can get it all done. Instead this general can expect the ire of Russia and China. It reveals just how disconnected people are. Even those in power.

 

[Ali_Baba]

جرلن صاحب اپنی ہی دنیا مین رہتے ہیں انکو ڈسٹرب نا کیا جائے ۔ جب بندہ دن رات 500 ایس ایس جی کمانڈوز کے نرغے میں ہو اسکی ویسے ہی مت ماری جاتی ہے

oh man - you and your urdu ( i cannot speak it let alone read it !!!! ).

Maybe the admins can add an "auto-translate" plugin one day!!! Just like Twitter had, before Elon broke the website and the translate button stopped working!

Google Translate to the rescue

Mr. Jarlan lives in his own world, he should not be disturbed. When a person is under the watch of 500 SSG commandos day and night, he is not killed like that

 

[Dalit]

oh man - you and your urdu ( i cannot speak it let alone read it !!!! ).

Maybe the admins can add an "auto-translate" plugin one day!!! Just like Twitter had, before Elon broke the website and the translate button stopped working!

Google Translate to the rescue

Learn reading and writing Urdu bro. The meaning and sarcasm can never be translated. I can only say that it is beyond hilarious and factually correct.

Thank God I learnt Urdu during my childhood.

 

[nahtanbob]

These are facts. Munir and predecessors like him live in an isolated world. It seems that these generals are oblivious to ground realities. China and Russia will never allow the US entry through Pakistan. Yet, this COAS thinks he can get it all done. Instead this general can expect the ire of Russia and China. It reveals just how disconnected people are. Even those in power.

This is where I disagree with you. The Pakistani elite is rational. They are playing a game to control the levers of power and to undercut India wherever possible. Of course in the process they are dumping the masses of Pakistan to the wolves. Who cares about 240 million people ?

 

[RescueRanger]

In my humble opinion it is not as doom and gloom as some would have people believe. Sadly we are still a nation with dining room politics but there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[PakAl]

These short term policies are a failure. China invested 100B in Pakistan, Gwadar, Cpec will benefit our nation and our leadership is flirting with the USA, we sure know how to let people down and make enemies. Pakistan establishment and political leadership needs to come to some kind of agreement regarding the future of the nation, we must then bring reforms, update the state and take it from there. Regarding India, it will grow to become a world power, Pakistan will also grow but we must make some 30 to 50 years policies.

 

[RescueRanger]

These short term policies are a failure. China invested 100B in Pakistan, Gwadar, Cpec will benefit our nation and our leadership is flirting with the USA, we sure know how to let people down and make enemies. Pakistan establishment and political leadership needs to come to some kind of agreement regarding the future of the nation, we must then bring reforms, update the state and take it from there. Regarding India, it will grow to become a world power, Pakistan will also grow but we must make some 30 to 50 years policies.

Sir Gwadar will bring in so much long term investment in Pakistan, people are failing to see the bigger picture.