Turkey Syria - News & Updates
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Unknowntruth
Trusted Member
Do you think this will lead to a political solution to the conflict and concessions being made? Or do you think it’s a take all scenario?
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If the rebels maintain their momentum in the military campaign, a political resolution for Syria may become unnecessary. The regime's window of opportunity is gradually narrowing. Once a critical point is reached, a new reality will emerge that all regional and global powers will have to acknowledge, regardless of their preferences.
I believe Iran is acutely aware of this shift, which explains Tehran's frustration with Assad's stubbornness. Even with Russian air support, it will be impossible to bomb every corner of Syria if the opposition continues to gain ground.
For a decade, Assad operated with impunity in Syria, committing atrocities such as murder, rape, theft, kidnapping, and torture against innocent civilians in nearly every Sunni-majority village, and even against many Alawis.
Given that any viable solution envisions a future without Assad, he and his supporters would rather see Syria devastated than relinquish power voluntarily. However, if conditions worsen, it’s likely that either Iran or someone within Assad's inner circle may attempt a coup. If this coup succeeds, it could significantly alter the conflict's dynamics, with unpredictable results.
Currently, I consider this scenario to be the most plausible.
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These villages are now under the control of SDF units consisting solely of Arab tribesmen. This is in the interest of the rebels given the fact that these units will most certainly abandon their alliance with the PKK and the US.
What they need is proof that the rebels in the West have gained enough momentum to ensure the sustainability of their military campaign. After all, Syrian Arabs are known to be fairly national in comparison to other Arab countries.
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As the rebels push west from northern Hama, they could aim to cross the Ghab Plain and penetrate the mountainous terrain, which would grant them a strategically advantageous position. This could allow them to target Russian aviation assets stationed at Hmeimim Airbase.
Personally, I don't see that happening yet but it goes to show you that even main Russian military installations could come under heavy attacks by the rebels in the next weeks. Just a couple days ago this was an unthinkable expansion of the conflict.
Personally, I don't see that happening yet but it goes to show you that even main Russian military installations could come under heavy attacks by the rebels in the next weeks. Just a couple days ago this was an unthinkable expansion of the conflict.
Hakikat ve Hikmet
VIP Member
Ferocious fighting along Munbich axis. It's a stronghold of PKK/YPG. There're elaborate tunnel networks there. But, this blitzkrieg by the Mujahidin is a dead surprise for them and has caught them unprepared. The US forces have left. Now, PKK/YPG are asking Israil and Iblis for a bail out. Munbich needs to be taken by the SNA at any cost....
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UKBengali
Elite Member
Are you aware that Russia is not even deploying 1/3rd of its airforce in Ukraine?
Ukraine has no aircraft that is much of a threat to it and those 1980s F-16s do not count.
Russia has been mass producing FAB bombs for over a year with new glide bomb kits and they have many left over for Syria.
Constant heavy RuAF bombing on the rebels indicates your information is out of date.
UKBengali
Elite Member
RuAF has dozens of aircraft in Syria, which inclues a mix of Su-30SM, SU-35, SU-24 and SU-34.
Those SU-34 can carry around 12-14 tons of ordnance and are capable of precision strike using LGBs. They will be devastating to the rebels as even 3-4 can devastate a whole brigade if caught out in the open.
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First Signs Russia Is Evacuating Navy Ships From Syria - Naval News
The Russian Navy's base at Tartus in Syria is crucial to its support of the Assad regime, and its ambitions on the world stage. The dramatic shift in the front lines in Syria now puts the base at risk. There are indications that Russia may be evacuating its naval vessels.
www.navalnews.com
It seems the decline of Russian presence in Syria has already been started.
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