Turkish Helicopter Programs

[Merzifonlu]

but the knowhow and intellectual property is still there. It might be worth bringing it to Turkey and nurturing it.

Yes, "Sale of Motor Sich" saga is a big fiasco. And NO (with big capitals). Since the TF-6000 has been fired for the first time recently, the things you mentioned are no longer of any value to we Turks!

You need to understand one fact very well. 5 years ago, what was valuable to us in Ukraine was not knowhow & intellectual property or Ukrainian equipment or Ukrainian experts. Even 5 years ago, we already knew how to make a turbofan engine!

What was valuable to us in Ukraine and 5 years ago was the Ukrainian ecosystem that supplied the subsystems of turbofan engines. Because the "allied" Westerners did not sell us subsystems of turbofan engines even for prototypes!

They also prevented the transfer of the Ukrainian ecosystem. As a result, we lost 5 years, but finally we established the ecosystem that will manufacture all the subsystems of the TF-6000 ourselves, without any help. Otherwise, the first ignition of TF-6000 turbofan engine would not have occurred.

This ecosystem will also produce the subsystems required for mass production of the TS-1400. Our initial plan was to transport the ecosystem required for TS-1400, TS-3000, TF-6000/10000 and TF-35000 from Ukraine. It would have been faster and cheaper, but Ukrainians were blinded by their admiration for the Westerners. They can't think straight. Again, IMO for the same reason, they pissed off Russia and as a result Ukraine invaded by Russia.
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What we need now is a) about 2 years of time and b) a lot of hard work. After 2 years, first TF-6000/10000 engines will be integrated into KE&Anka-3 drones. These engines will mature by flying, not in ground tests. The ecosystem we established for these engines will also produce the subsystems of the TF-35000 engine. We won't have to buy subsystems from anyone, even for prototypes!

 

[hyperman]

Yes, "Sale of Motor Sich" saga is a big fiasco. And NO (with big capitals). Since the TF-6000 has been fired for the first time, the things you mentioned are no longer of any value to we Turks!

You need to understand one fact very well. 5 years ago, what was valuable to us in Ukraine was not knowhow & intellectual property or Ukrainian equipment or Ukrainian experts. Even 5 years ago, we already knew how to make a turbofan engine!

What was valuable to us in Ukraine and 5 years ago was the Ukrainian ecosystem that supplied the subsystems of turbofan engines. Because the "allied" Westerners did not sell us subsystems of turbofan engines even for prototypes!

They also prevented the transfer of the Ukrainian ecosystem. As a result, we lost 5 years, but finally we established the ecosystem that will manufacture all the subsystems of the TF-6000 ourselves, without any help. Otherwise, the first ignition of TF-6000 turbofan engine would not have occurred.

This ecosystem will also produce the subsystems required for mass production of the TS-1400. Our initial plan was to transport the ecosystem required for TS-1400, TS-3000, TF-6000/10000 and TF-35000 from Ukraine. It would have been faster and cheaper, but Ukrainians were blinded by their admiration for the Westerners. They can't think straight. Again, IMO for the same reason, they upset Russia and were invaded.
-----------------------------------------------------------

What we need now is a) about 2 years of time and b) a lot of hard work. After 2 years, first TF-6000/10000 engines will be integrated into KE&Anka-3 drones. These engines will mature by flying, not in ground tests. The ecosystem we established for these engines will also produce the subsystems of the TF-35000 engine. We won't have to buy subsystems from anyone, even for prototypes!

Well yes the TF-6000 does change the need for Ukraine and the AL-322F, but what about the VK-2500 and potentially marine propulsion for frigates and corvettes? Is there value from Ukraine potentially on these matters? particularly with producing the VK-2500 in Turkey?

 

[Merzifonlu]

Well yes the TF-6000 does change the need for Ukraine and the AL-322F, but what about the VK-2500 and potentially marine propulsion for frigates and corvettes? Is there value from Ukraine potentially on these matters? particularly with producing the VK-2500 in Turkey?

Well, TEI TS-3000 turboshaft engine has been delayed for at least 10 years. So there are no plans for VK-2500. Actually, there is no urgent need for us. Our army think we can manage for 10 years with the current helicopter fleet + Gökbey + T629 + cargo drones.
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As for the turbines required for ships, there are two case here:

i) Marine turbines will be derived from the TF-6000 for gunboats and similar relatively low tonnage ships.

and ii) A turbine maintenance contract was recently signed with GE for heavy tonnage ships. TEI undertook the maintenance of LM-2500 turbines. In this way, the supply of GE LM-2500 turbines was also secured for our navy.

If necessary, I'm talking about 20 years from now, a ship turbine can be developed based on the TF-35000.

 

[LegionnairE]

I say again. Forget GE T700! And yes, we won't be making any heavier versions of TS-1400 engine in the near future.

Like it or not, we have infrastructure for two systems CTS-800 (which is same as TS-1400) and T-700.

Since we won't be getting anything from Ukraine anymore T925 and T929 are both dead.

And since Pakistan received the Chinese WZ-10 helicopters, only possible buyer for T629 is Azerbaijan.



Okay let's forget the T-700. Then what? What other way forward is there? Azerbaijan already won, they have no more need for expensive military procurements. Their main concern is rebuilding Karabağ. Their modernized SuperHinds are very good already. If it goes on like this, T629 will be dead too. No buyers.

Which I'm fine with, focus on MMU, ANKa3 and Gökbey

 

[Merzifonlu]

Like it or not, we have infrastructure for two systems CTS-800 (which is same as TS-1400) and T-700.

No, my friend.

We have only one infrastructure. It's for TS-1400. "We have the infrastructure for the GE T700 and CTS-800." We cannot that say without Yankee approval.

They also give this approval for the platforms we already have in our inventory. They do not approve any new platform. In fact, they didn't even extend the S70 license, let alone the new platform!

It shouldn't be this difficult to understand the situation and accept the facts.

 

[LegionnairE]

No, my friend.

We have only one infrastructure. It's for TS-1400. Without Yankee approval "We have the infrastructure for the GE T700 and CTS-800." We cannot say.

yes I love nationalist chest thumping myself. Trust me I do it on a daily basis but even Gökbey is flying with Yankee CTS-800 right now.

We sold CTS-800 powered T-129s to Nigeria remember?



Who do you think will buy the TS-1400 powered T629? How many units? including Turkish army

 

[Merzifonlu]

Who do you think will buy the TS-1400 powered T629? How many units? including Turkish army

We can only ask and answer this question after seeing the performance of the mass-produced TS-1400. Are there currently any mass-produced TS-1400s? No.

If this engine does not enter mass production on the promised date, believe me, we are in big trouble!

Because this delay will indicate that the TF-6000/10000 and TF-35000 turbofan engine projects will also struggle with big problems.

 

[LegionnairE]

We can only ask and answer this question after seeing the performance of the mass-produced TS-1400.

Just assume the same performance as CTS-800, give me ballpark numbers

 

[Merzifonlu]

Just assume the same performance as CTS-800, give me ballpark numbers

Assuming that Pakistan does not purchase T-629 (and Navalized T-629), my estimate is that a maximum of 80 helicopters will be sold in between 2025-2035 years.

This includes what we will purchase. A reasonable average would be 50 unit and 30 unit of them are purchased by our navy as navalized T-629s.

 

[LegionnairE]

Assuming that Pakistan does not purchase T-629 (and Navalized T-629), my estimate is that a maximum of 80 helicopters will be sold between 2025-2035. Our purchaseds are included in this.

I think this is an optimistic estimation for a number of reasons, we were able to sell T-129 in tiny numbers, but 80 is not impossible.

How many do you think Turkish army will buy? How many do we really need? What advantage can it offer over T-129?
What other countries do you think will be interested?

 

[Merzifonlu]

How many do you think Turkish army will buy? How many do we really need? What advantage can it offer over T-129?
What other countries do you think will be interested?

A reasonable average would be 50 unit and 30 unit of them are purchased by our navy as navalized T-629s.

Yes, 80 is an optimistic estimate. I already said 80 at maximum. I think they will only be purchased domestically by our Navy.

Its main advantages over the T-129 would be that it offers a more stable cannon, more cannon ammunition, and more volume for EW and countermeasures.

Except us, maybe some African countries request T-629.

 

[LegionnairE]

A reasonable average would be 50 unit and 30 unit of them are purchased by our navy as navalized T-629s.

Yes, 80 is an optimistic estimate. I already said 80 at maximum. I think they will only be purchased domestically by our Navy.

Its main advantages over the T-129 would be that it offers a more stable cannon, more cannon ammunition, and more volume for EW and countermeasures.

Except us, maybe some African countries request T-629.

Ok, there's a lot to unpack here, and I concur, 50 is reasonable. Let's say Turkish army buys 25, Azerbaijan 15 and some random African nation buys 10, a plausible scenario. The biggest African country Nigeria with a population of 230 million only bought 6 T129s but nevermind that. 50 helicopters should be feasible. After all, we developed T129 for 50+40 units and we deemed it financially feasible back then. But back then we didn't have MMU, Anka 3 and Gökbey, which are far more important projects, all extremely ambitious. Is it reasonable now to tie up engineers and resources on T629 which is barely any better than T129?

"more stable cannon, more cannon ammunition, and more volume for EW and countermeasures" out of these which ones can not be added to the T129 as an upgrade package? Do we really need a new helicopter to accomplish these?


Let us stop here, let us forget about politics for a moment and consider if we built a T-700 powered attack helicopter, like how we're building the Gökbey with CTS-800. Let's say we made it a bit more survivable, maybe with an advanced feature like an ejection system (that no western country offers) and let's say we gambled and offered it to relatively rich NATO country like Poland, Finland or Lithuania.

A country like Poland could buy 50 aircraft in just one contract. Think about it ...Am I making a little sense now? Rather than hurting the MMU project, this could end up funding it. And if we get our foot through the door, it could be much easier to sell them Anka-3 or MMU later down the line. Think big my friend.

(naval T629 is extremely unlikely by the way. They are VERY happy with having received Super Cobras)

 

[Merzifonlu]

"more stable cannon, more cannon ammunition, and more volume for EW and countermeasures" out of these which ones can not be added to the T129 as an upgrade package? Do we really need a new helicopter to accomplish these?

(naval T629 is extremely unlikely by the way. They are VERY happy with having received Super Cobras)

None of these features, I repeat none, can be added to the T-129. There's not even 1 cubic centimeter of space left in the T-129!

Will our T-129 fleet be renewed for these plus features? No. If we had bought it from begining, T-629 would have made a lot of sense.

And no, our Navy is not VEERY happy with the Super Cobras. I asked first hand, I know well. Besides, the number of Super Cobras is very insufficient. Also, those platforms are very old.

They would be very happy if navalized T-629 is supplied. Unfortunately, that platform will enter production after 5 years at the earliest.

P.S. This engine GE T700, not T-700. OK? T-700 is a Terminator model. LOL

 

[LegionnairE]

There's not even 1 cubic centimeter of space left in the T-129!

So open space, modify the fuselage. They had to add weight to the tail to stabilize the nose, remove those weights, add more space behind the pilot. They haven't even updated the Aselflir-300s. Since we began work on T-929 not much is being done with T-129

And no, our Navy is not VEERY happy with the Super Cobras. I asked first hand,

People I spoke to, spoke very differently.

Besides, the number of Super Cobras is very insufficient.

For what? Seahawk is infinitely more capable than a regular attack helicopter and naval Gökbey will be very close to that.

Only ship that needs an attack helicopter is TCG Anadolu and she has them in a sufficient number.

 

[Merzifonlu]

So open space, modify the fuselage. They had to add weight to the tail to stabilize the nose, remove those weights, add more space behind the pilot. They haven't even updated the Aselflir-300s. Since we began work on T-929 not much is being done with T-129

The realized version of what you said is T-629. The only improvement I expect in the T-129s is to get rid of the Aselflir-300s. But they will spread that work over time.

Only ship that needs an attack helicopter is TCG Anadolu and she has them in a sufficient number.

You are ignoring 2 situations here. 1- A second ship is on the way. Even the 3rd one. 2- As I said, Super Cobras are old platforms and even if they are navalized, they will age faster because the marine environment is harsh.

Due to these two factors, we will desperately need navalize T-629s in 10 years, if not now. Same goes for Navalize Gökbeys.