United States elections 2024
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Yommie
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Trump, the Most Underreported Polling of the 2024 Cycle Suggests, Is Poised To Win Pennsylvania
The 45th president could earn the largest margin of victory for a presidential candidate in the Keystone State since President Obama’s eight-point win in…
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Yommie
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Harris ahead nationally but Trump leads in NC, election forecast shows • NC Newsline
Vice President Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump nationally but trails in North Carolina, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill prediction
ncnewsline.com
Harris ahead nationally but Trump leads in NC, election forecast shows
GOP still favored to control Congress, but Dems have narrowed the gap
By:
Getty Images: Donald Trump by Win McNamee/Kamala Harris photo by Alex Wong
Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to defeat former President Donald Trump in the November election but may come up short in North Carolina, according to the latest Decision Desk HQ/The Hill prediction.
The Decision Desk HQ Forecast model, relaunched Monday after a month-long pause following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, shows Harris with a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency. The previous model predicted a 56 percent chance for a Trump victory over Biden.
The model is based on a blend of the latest polling data, fundraising, and each district’s partisan lean.
In the updated version, North Carolina shifts from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
The other swing states progress in Harris’ favor as well: Michigan moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain Toss-ups, but with Harris performing better than Biden in those states.
Decision Desk HQ predicts a 64 percent chance of victory for Trump in North Carolina, compared to 36 percent for Harris. The analysis includes 10 polls conducted between February and August — two were released months prior to Biden dropping out.
Since Harris entered the race, the gap between the Democratic candidate and Trump has closed substantially. A May poll from Morning Consult/Bloomberg News had Trump up by 10 percent in North Carolina, while ones from recent weeks show Harris catching up.
The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the Tar Heel State was Barack Obama in 2008, the first to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Republicans have won every federal race in North Carolina since Obama’s victory.
For the other battleground states, Decision Desk HQ predicts a Trump victory in Arizona and Georgia, but gives Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Harris. It’s a forecast that anticipates 276 electoral votes for Harris and 262 for Trump.
Harris has strengthened Democrats’ odds in congressional elections, according to the model.
Republicans still lead in the Senate with a 67 percent chance to take the majority, but it’s closer than their earlier 78 percent chance when Biden was at the top of the ticket.
Decision Desk HQ considers the GOP to have a “fundamental advantage” in these races since Democrats are defending 23 of the 33 contested seats. Three of these elections are in states that Trump won in 2016 and 2020, while no Republican-held seats are in states won by Biden in 2020.
On the other hand, the House is a relative toss up; Decision Desk HQ predicts Republicans have a 56 percent chance of winning control of the lower chamber, compared to the previous model’s 61 percent chance.
The GOP managed to flip nine House seats in 2022, securing a narrow majority that they must defend in November. Democrats hold 213 seats, just five away from the 218 needed for control and the Speaker’s gavel.
North Carolina has 14 congressional seats that are currently split 7-7.
In the latest round of redistricting, Republicans in the state legislature redrew the map to all but assure a GOP victory in 10 districts, leaving three for Democrats. The first congressional district, represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis, is the only House seat considered competitive in North Carolina.
Yommie
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Yommie
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- Oct 2, 2013
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Pennsylvania smiles on the Republicans: GOP registers more new voters than Democrats so far in 2024
The Keystone State is one of the most coveted in the electoral college for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
voz.us
Pennsylvania smiles on the Republicans: GOP registers more new voters than Democrats so far in 2024
The Keystone State is one of the most coveted in the electoral college for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.FacebookTwitterWhatsappCopy link
Trump visited Pennsylvania on a couple of occasions after his assassination attempt in Butler/ Jim Watson.AFP
Joaquín Núñez
13h ago
2 minutes read
Topics:
Pennsylvania is set to be one of the key states in the November election, even more important than the rest of the purple states. Its unpredictability and attractive amount of electoral votes make it one of the most attractive prizes in the electoral college, for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. In this competitive context, the Republican Party has reason to celebrate in the Keystone State.
Axios reported, the GOP registered more voters than Democrats so far in 2024, 94,603 new Republicans versus 87,325 new Democrats.
Republicans also prevailed in the number of registered voters for the month of July, the month that saw the attempted assassination of Trump in Butler (PA). According to a local State Department spokesman, the GOP added 19,127 new voters, while Democrats added 17,495.
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Leandro FleischerDespite this trend, Democrats still outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania. As of August 2024, there are 3.9 million registered Democrats in the Keystone State, while Republicans total 3.5 million.
As for independent voters, a group that will likely end up defining the election, there are currently 1.3 million scattered across Pennsylvania, of which 76,000 were registered in 2024.
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Joaquín NúñezThe importance of Pennsylvania in November
The Keystone State proves pivotal to both presidential campaigns. As recently reported by Ben Shapiro, and, based on analyses by Nate Silver, whoever wins Pennsylvania has a "95%" chance of winning the presidential election.The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump resisting Harris' honeymoon period in Pennsylvania, with 49% voting intention against his rival's 48%.
"Likely Pennsylvania voters who belong to unions lean toward Harris by 15 points, 57% to 42%, while those who do not belong to a union and have no union members in the household lean toward Trump, 50% to 48%. Those with union members in the household lean toward Trump, 50% vs. 42%," explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The Republican also has an advantage among independent voters with 48% versus 45% who would lean toward Harris.
As for the Senate races, the Democratic incumbent, Bob Casey, slightly stretched his lead over David McCormick. With less than three months to go before the election, Casey would currently get 48% to his rival's 44%, with 8% undecided.
"Since last month, support for Casey among likely voters has held steady at 48%, while support for McCormick among likely voters declined from 47% to 44%," Emerson College Polling commented.
Yommie
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Why Harris campaign is fighting for unmuted debate mics
They will be muted when it's the other candidate's turn to speak - but Ms Harris's team are pushing back.
www.bbc.com
Why Harris campaign is fighting for unmuted debate mics
22 hours agoShare
Ana Faguy
BBC News, Washington
The two presidential candidates are set to go head to head on 10 September
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set to square off in their first presidential debate next month, but the campaigns are still warring over logistics - namely relating to the microphones.
Trump's campaign is pushing for the microphones to be muted when it is the other person's turn to speak. This is a rule that was originally requested by Joe Biden when he was the Democratic candidate.
Trump's team ultimately agreed to the request - which was an apparent effort by Biden's campaign to limit interruptions. (The pair's chaotic first 2020 debate was marred by constant interruptions, with Mr Biden eventually snapping at his rival: "Will you shut up, man?")
Some analysts say the Trump campaign's eagerness to keep the muting rule in place for the Harris debate on 10 September may be due to the positive reception he received for what was a more reserved performance than many had anticipated against Mr Biden in June. In practice, it made interruptions impossible.
The former president, however, appears less concerned by the rule and to some extent even undermined his own team's statements calling for it to remain in place. "[It] doesn't matter to me. I'd rather have [the microphones] probably on," he said on Monday.
"But the agreement was that it would be the same as it was last time. In that case, it was muted," he added.
Trump posted on social media Tuesday afternoon that he has "reached an agreement" with ABC for the 10 September debate. He did not mention mics in the post, but said again that the "Rules will be the same as the last CNN Debate", which included muted mics in its rules.
He also accused the network in the post of being "unfair", but also said his team was assured that the debate would be "fair and equitable".
It was not clear Tuesday whether the Harris campaign had signed off on the terms Trump said he agreed to with ABC.
The Harris campaign wants to shift the agreed rules with just two weeks to go so that both candidates' microphones will be unmuted for the entire debate. What do they think they could gain from this change?
More generally, they believe it has the potential to show viewers a more unfiltered, even ill-tempered, Trump who would be audible throughout the entire time Ms Harris is speaking.
"Our understanding is that Trump's handlers prefer the muted microphone because they don't think their candidate can act presidential for 90 minutes on his own," a statement from Harris's spokesman said.
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"The reason she's saying to unmute the mics is because Trump is uncontrolled," Ameshia Cross, a Democratic strategist and political analyst, told the BBC.
Ms Cross said Trump's rallies and Truth Social posts, where he has launched repeated personal attacks against Ms Harris, offer examples of how he may approach the looming debate on ABC News.
Those attacks "turn off voters" particularly women voters, voters of colour and young voters, Ms Cross said.
Strategists have also suggested Trump's insults may turn off crucial undecided voters. “One of the ways to win over swing voters is not by personal attacks,” Kevin Madden, a longtime Republican strategist, told the New York Times. “By nature, they don’t love partisan politics."
If Trump's microphone is unmuted while Harris is speaking, the likelihood of an audible insult or interruption ramps up. And the Harris campaign may feel a more aggressive Trump who is able to interrupt at will could benefit them by turning off these swing voters.
This matters in an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of undecided voters in a handful of battleground states such as Pennsylvania, where the debate is being held.
"He’s very prone to having intemperate outbursts and... I think the [Harris] campaign would want viewers to hear [that]," a person familiar with the debate negotiations told Politico this week.
The Trump campaign, according to reports, are eager for their candidate to focus on the key issues and not on personal attacks. One ally who speaks to the former president every week recently told the BBC's Katty Kay that Trump will win in November if he sticks to talking about the economy, the border and crime.
It is fair to assume that if the candidates are only audible during their allotted answer time, then the debate is more likely to focus on the issues, as the Trump campaign wants, and not tense clashes and heated exchanges which would be possible with live mics.
Name-calling and insults - key moments from Biden and Trump’s 27 June debate
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, told the BBC that he believes the Harris campaign's effort to unmute the microphones is an attempt to move the debate away from the issues and into the arena of grabby viral moments.
"They're not sure they can win on the issues so what they're looking for is any way possible to have a viral moment," he said.
Ms Harris has had these moments in the past. During the 2020 vice-presidential debate between then-vice-president Mike Pence and Ms Harris, a clip of her pushing back on an interruption was widely shared. "I'm speaking, Mr Vice-President," she said.
Mr O’Connell said the Trump campaign should continue to aggressively push for the muted microphones because those are the rules the Democratic campaign originally came up with. He said the message should be: "We let you write the rules, we are sticking with the same rules."
Ms Cross, however, suggested the Harris campaign is calling Trump's bluff and has the upper hand. "If he does not want them unmuted, he's going to look weak, like he cannot control himself," she said.
While Ms Cross said Trump was trying to "weasel" his way out of the debate by attacking the network, Mr O'Connell said the Republican nominee would show up regardless for what is set to be a major moment.
"The 10 September debate could be the most consequential moment between now and election day," he said.
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