US Economy - News, Updates and Discussion

j_hungary said:
again, they are "over-valued" because of something, and I will give you 3 guess as to what make them "over-valued"

It's not my fault my company is doing good AND making money.

People misunderstood what is "healthy grow" and what is a "bubble" the chart is going up, but that's not the important bit, the chart is going up "GRADUALLY" is the important bits. When you have a bubble, it's when something spike at the end of a quick period, when people hedge on them. I mean if my company perform well and making money constantly Y to Y, it's not a strange thing my stock went up...
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I understand stock prices are sentiments of investors not firm number reflecting earnings, but in some industries like tech, a lot is anticipated future growth, with many new initiatives years from profitability. Gradual stock price growth is on that steady supply of good news of progress, in anticipation. Cost of inputs increasing or consumer demand dropping doing to price spikes are still things that will play out.

In the long term, the market will recover but the lost potential, as after 2008, will have long lasting effects.
 
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If you guys are interested in Trump's reaction:

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j_hungary said:
you increase rate to try to reign in the public wealth, that's why Russian is currently doing 21% interest rate at the moment, when they desperately needed capital to fight inflation.

Increase interest rate = people have more incentive (higher interest) to deposit and less incentive to borrow.

lower interest rate = people have less incentive to deposit (Low interest) and more incentive to borrow.
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Trump might be trusting the phenomena called flight to safety to compensate for the lower interest rate. Considering chaos in the world it's very plausible.
 
FuturePAF said:
I understand stock prices are sentiments of investors not firm number reflecting earnings, but in some industries like tech, a lot is anticipated future growth, with many new initiatives years from profitability. Gradual stock price growth is on that steady supply of good news of progress, in anticipation. Cost of inputs increasing or consumer demand dropping doing to price spikes are still things that will play out.

In the long term, the market will recover but the lost potential, as after 2008, will have long lasting effects.
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Well, to be fair, I will say this. I have no issue to the statement of "the market is overvalued" the issue I have is that "warrant" a course correction.

If you look at the market in deep, several stock are overperformed, but that's not within the range of bubbling, tech stock, build up by the development of AI and future application is the reason why tech stock is over-priced at the moment, but that's a good thing because this increase capital into tech sector (as price goes up investment goes up) and you can't pump money into a scene forever, people are going to divest, mean they are going to come down in the near future, which if you look at the outlook pre-Jan 2025, that's most of what those trading specialist said.

That said, that's one sector of the market that's being overpriced, the market wasn't heavily tilted toward overheating across the board to warrant a course adjustment, and certainly not in this way.
 
People need to understand how historically massive the damage is that Trump has caused:

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This is simply devastating.
 
j_hungary said:
Well, to be fair, I will say this. I have no issue to the statement of "the market is overvalued" the issue I have is that "warrant" a course correction.

If you look at the market in deep, several stock are overperformed, but that's not within the range of bubbling, tech stock, build up by the development of AI and future application is the reason why tech stock is over-priced at the moment, but that's a good thing because this increase capital into tech sector (as price goes up investment goes up) and you can't pump money into a scene forever, people are going to divest, mean they are going to come down in the near future, which if you look at the outlook pre-Jan 2025, that's most of what those trading specialist said.

That said, that's one sector of the market that's being overpriced, the market wasn't heavily tilted toward overheating across the board to warrant a course adjustment, and certainly not in this way.
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This current moment is a self inflicted ill planned roll out of tariffs, which is driving down investor confidence and driving out money from the market (Buffet has been liquidating for a while), pushing many indices down. We could have rolled out tariffs in a 6 month process, through congress, targeted to properly compete against China, the main target. But the way it’s being done now just looks illogical.

Buffet was at $162 billion in cash about a year ago, and over $300 billion a few months ago. It’s not just the tariffs, as a conversation investors he doesn’t seem to want to invest in the new tech companies. He’s been watching the trend, and probably anticipated Trump’s win by the middle of last year if not sooner.

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GatlingGun said:
Trump might be trusting the phenomena called flight to safety to compensate for the lower interest rate. Considering chaos in the world it's very plausible.
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Well, first, if they lower the interest rate now this is going to be worse, as that will disperse capital and also encourage borrowing

Second, this "Chaos" is the direct result of his plan, so are you saying he is panicked on his own plan?
 
It appears that Don Trumpano is ready to go all the way. He's like: my offer is nothing...


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FuturePAF said:
This current moment is a self inflicted ill planned roll out of tariffs, which is driving down investor confidence and driving out money from the market (Buffet has been liquidating for a while), pushing many indices down. We could have rolled out tariffs in a 6 month process, through congress, targeted to properly compete against China, the main target. But the way it’s being done now just looks illogical.

Buffet was at $162 billion in cash about a year ago, and over $300 billion a few months ago. It’s not just the tariffs, as a conversation investors he doesn’t seem to want to invest in the new tech companies. He’s been watching the trend, and probably anticipated Trump’s win by the middle of last year if not sooner.

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Trump loves Tariff, this is what he has been saying since 1985, he thinks tariff is a way to protect investment (at least his investment) so when he was a nominee, you will get the idea of what his presidency would be like, I too have no stock portfolio now (Used to have a few hundred thousand) and got rid of them all since before the election, and told people not to invest after Trump won last November (I think I said it here before somewhere) that part is not hard to see at all, I think Buffet was just being diligent, not many people are.
 
This is why China is right to control the stock market. If the traders ever try to crash the stock market in China, the CCP sends the gestapo after them and lock them up behind bars. In China, the CCP, not the traders, have power. Sometimes, authoritarianism works.
 
What! Oh noes their markets are taking huge hits I guess the only thing to do is to negotiate with Orange man, eh?
 
Yommie said:
This is why China is right to control the stock market. If the traders ever try to crash the stock market in China, the CCP sends the gestapo after them and lock them up behind bars. In China, the CCP, not the traders, have power. Sometimes, authoritarianism works.
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What a stupid view, you can’t force investor confidence with government crackdowns, that’s like making it illegal for companies to lose money. Markets reflect trust in the future, not fear of getting arrested.

That’s why the US market, even with its ups and downs, is over $50 trillion and still the biggest in the world. China’s is less than a third of that, and often needs state support to stay stable. Heavy-handed control might stop a crash for a day, but it kills long-term growth and trust.
 
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