US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[PK781]

I wonder what the "threat" really was that necessitated a rapid scramble of the planes back to CONUS.

If it was the threat of Iranian missiles, then that tells me the missile threat has not been sufficiently neutralized.

does iran really have missiles that can reach UK? Even if they did, i don't think they will try lobbing at the UK, let alone US

Probably there is alternate plan so maybe those r not needed, and for safety they were sent back, maybe uk is not safe (domestic)

Refuelers were aplenty parked in mideast/israel and they did not get targetted either recently.

i think they really want a deal from trump right now, theyre squeezed economically and these new sanctions are hurting them alot

 

[Americano]

I wonder what the "threat" really was that necessitated a rapid scramble of the planes back to CONUS.

If it was the threat of Iranian missiles, then that tells me the missile threat has not been sufficiently neutralized.

Potential Iranian Drone Attack Led to Exit of U.S. Aircraft From British Air Base

 

[Ali_Baba]

I wonder what the "threat" really was that necessitated a rapid scramble of the planes back to CONUS.

If it was the threat of Iranian missiles, then that tells me the missile threat has not been sufficiently neutralized.

Something like this was the concern apparently : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb

 

[Flotilla]

I wonder what the "threat" really was that necessitated a rapid scramble of the planes back to CONUS.

If it was the threat of Iranian missiles, then that tells me the missile threat has not been sufficiently neutralized.

Let's look at the facts...

What does it suggest to you that Iran has repaired and reinforced the entrances to its underground missile bases?

What is the significance of the visual confirmation that at least two new underground missile bases have been built during these months of war?

What are the implications of the fact that, since the end of hostilities, there has been visual confirmation of only two flights over Iranian airspace—one being the famous Israeli R06 (a stealth UAV) near Tehran, and a single Super Hornet over Chabahar (a port city)?

What are the consequences of Iran replacing all its radar-guided anti-aircraft systems with passive infrared systems—such as the AD08, Azarakash, or Qaem118?

What is glaringly obvious from outside the United States is that Donald J. Trump didn't stage a coup; you elected him yourselves, and you are heading for disaster. But hey, don't let that spoil the party. They're unarmed—go right in!

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Frankly, I've given up and so have quite a few in my other circles:

 

[Shags202]

Frankly, I've given up and so have quite a few in my other circles:

View attachment 218504

To be fair i think we were fairly safe and quiet for the past 20 years or so after the height of the Iraq war and unless im wrong sounds like Vance is speaking for the White House again telling the Iranians they can keep enriching uranium as long as its not 60 percent I think at this point Iranians will say hey we weren’t seeking a nuclear weapon anyway but drop all sanctions release our funds and we can go back what are quiet nonexistent relationship we had from before honestly sounds like a white flag face saving from the White House

 

[ghazi52]

 

[Haz]

Since I seem to have been perma-banned from the Iranian thread for some reason, I'll post this latest update here:

Crude oil Gulf exports have now fully rebounded to pre-war levels, even exceeding them by some reports, despite Iranian oil not being allowed to pass through at all.

Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows

IRGC commander says oil flows through US-supervised route in Hormuz are ‘negligible’.

www.aljazeera.com

Three reasons Middle East oil is nearly back to pre-Iran war levels

Experts say US military assistance, using shuttle tankers and pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz mean exports have rebounded.

www.bbc.com

However, other products such as LNG and other oil derivatives are still much lower than pre-conflict levels, and that likely has more to do with the refineries and gas installation being damaged by Iranian attacks than anything related to the straits.

What strategic benefit does choking off the Hormuz strait provide Iran going forwards if this keeps up? It seems like that leverage is becoming less and less consequential as time passes by.

 

[Haz]

Also, since Iran's ships have been barred from going through, only the remaining float oil they have currently at sea which passed through the strait before the blockade was reimposed in July, is left for them to sell, and that supply is set to completely be gone this month.

Once the remaining barrels are sold, they won't have anymore oil money coming in, and those sales are their biggest source of income and provides more than a third of their total budget. Payments usually clears within 2months, so they'll still have injection of payments until December, if they can actually transfer the money from China, which I'm not sure if they can right now according to their president.

Looks like the Hormuz strategy may backfire, Trump's reverse UNO card play will matter much more in the coming months as the Iranian regime runs out of cash.

 

[Haz]

Other interesting facts I ran across while going through some articles,

-UAE is constructing two new port terminals in Fujairah to bypass Hormuz and significantly expand container handling capacity, but those won't be complete for another 2 years.
-Oil producers outside the Gulf have increased their output by 2.5mbd in the past few weeks and climbing, mostly from Brazil and USA, and a few other smaller players.

Looks like the biggest crunch is mostly increasing diesel refinement capacity, that's the the most pertinent problem to solve right now.