US pushes Vietnam to decouple from Chinese tech, sources say

[sambody]

It is best to be in the Chinese camp, as Vietnam has deeper roots and cultural proximity than the United States.

US exports are 30% of Vietnam's GDP and Chinese exports are about 18%. Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place.

Importantly, most other major trading economies like the EU, Japan, Canada, India, South Korea, GCC, Australia, etc would rather join the US bloc rather than the Chinese if push comes to shove. So, Vietnam has more to lose by being excluded from the US bloc.

 

[Viet]

Hardcore MAGA are mostly economically illiterate, but many of their goals are shared by the conservative billionaires and the US establishment- who all want to have less dependence on China for the supply chain in critical sectors .

Producing every thing is America is the holy grail, but practically it is simply not possible. However, it is preferable for the supply chain dependence to be on friendly countries like Phillipines and Thailand than on China or those in her orbit.

The deal with the UK has provisions to reduce dependence on China and those being negotiated with the likes of India and Vietnam will have similar provisons. It would be for these countries to make a choice.

Complete decoupling in the short-term is impossible, but the long term goal is to insulate US supply chains from Chinese dependence as much as possible.

Sure, you can ask India, Thailand and Philippines, they can replace China manufacturing. nobody stops Trump of doing so.
as for Vietnam it’s unrealistic. and even if. let say we agree. There is only 1 scenario. Trump can stay as president for life. it makes no sense for anyone to close a deal with the US if he goes out of office in 3.5y. we need at least 10-15 years. but in that scenario we would ask the US massive technology and money transfer as compensation.

 

[guangdongt]

Sure, you can ask India, Thailand and Philippines, they can replace China manufacturing. nobody stops Trump of doing so.
as for Vietnam it’s unrealistic. and even if. let say we agree. There is only 1 scenario. Trump can stay as president for life. it makes no sense for anyone to close a deal with the US if he goes out of office in 3.5y. we need at least 10-15 years. but in that scenario we would ask the US massive technology and money transfer as compensation.

You mentioned the key issue: time. China and the United States are both racing against time, not against war, nor against Taiwan. But who is the fastest to complete the economic transformation. The United States needs a partial return of manufacturing while reducing debt. Economic restructuring. China needs to achieve a relative balance between consumption and manufacturing, fully construct its economic mechanism, and form an internal and external cycle. Whoever completes the economic reform first among these two countries will have the initiative in their future destiny

 

[sambody]

Sure, you can ask India, Thailand and Philippines, they can replace China manufacturing. nobody stops Trump of doing so.
as for Vietnam it’s unrealistic. and even if. let say we agree. There is only 1 scenario. Trump can stay as president for life. it makes no sense for anyone to close a deal with the US if he goes out of office in 3.5y. we need at least 10-15 years. but in that scenario we would ask the US massive technology and money transfer as compensation.

The days of the Marshall Plan and GARIO are gone. The US is not going to give freebies to anyone ( except maybe Israel) to trade with them. The US has other options for trading partners who already have their own grievances against China.

 

[ety]

Sure, you can ask India, Thailand and Philippines, they can replace China manufacturing. nobody stops Trump of doing so.
as for Vietnam it’s unrealistic. and even if. let say we agree. There is only 1 scenario. Trump can stay as president for life. it makes no sense for anyone to close a deal with the US if he goes out of office in 3.5y. we need at least 10-15 years. but in that scenario we would ask the US massive technology and money transfer as compensation.

Wow, US manufacturing has been hollowed out for decades, nothing much left now. Trump wants much manufacturing to move back to US instead. You think the US can help Vietnam develop its industry and build complete manufacturing base of its own in the coming decade, no kidding.

 

[PakFactor]

US exports are 30% of Vietnam's GDP and Chinese exports are about 18%. Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place.

Importantly, most other major trading economies like the EU, Japan, Canada, India, South Korea, GCC, Australia, etc would rather join the US bloc rather than the Chinese if push comes to shove. So, Vietnam has more to lose by being excluded from the US bloc.

You'll have to find balance and avoid confrontation, but you can't alienate your neighbor because, in the end, it's who you have to live with right next door. The neighbor should come first, along with a tighter integration of ASEAN countries.

 

[MH.Yang]

It is best to be in the Chinese camp, as Vietnam has deeper roots and cultural proximity than the United States.

If Vietnam joins the Chinese camp and China wins, Vietnam is the next member of the G7 organization, a future developed country. If Vietnam joins the US camp, even if the US wins, Vietnam will be the next prey of the US.

 

[MH.Yang]

These are the standard terms President Trump's administration will insist on for all trade deals. If reshoring to America is not possible, at least friend-shoring should happen. The US and many other countries don't want to face the kind of blackmail China is employing on rare earth exports again.

blackmail?

It is the United States that abuses trade sanctions, and it is also the United States that provokes trade wars. China just counterattacked, this is also called “blackmail”? Isn't your position too shameless?

 

[sambody]

blackmail?

It is the United States that abuses trade sanctions, and it is also the United States that provokes trade wars. China just counterattacked, this is also called “blackmail”? Isn't your position too shameless?

It is realpolitik. Anyway, the US has a rules based system. President Trump's decisions are regularly challenged and overturned in US courts. No exporter in China can dare to take the CCP or Chairman Xi's regime to court againt arbitrary export restrictions imposed by them.

 

[ety]

US exports are 30% of Vietnam's GDP and Chinese exports are about 18%. Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place.

Importantly, most other major trading economies like the EU, Japan, Canada, India, South Korea, GCC, Australia, etc would rather join the US bloc rather than the Chinese if push comes to shove. So, Vietnam has more to lose by being excluded from the US bloc.

Economically, the biggest trade partner of South Korea, Japan, Australia, GCC countries and India is China, not US. So is Vietnam currently. Unless US blackmails these countries, they will probably stay that way.

 

[MH.Yang]

It is realpolitik. Anyway, the US has a rules based system. President Trump's decisions are regularly challenged and overturned in US courts. No exporter in China can dare to take the CCP or Chairman Xi's regime to court againt arbitrary export restrictions imposed by them.

First of all what you say about China is basically wrong and comes from your imagination and western media propaganda, and the Chinese and Vietnamese in this thread are well aware of that.

Of course I don't want to argue with you about these longstanding western media smears.

Secondly, all of China's rare earth companies are state-owned, and it all belongs to the Development and Reform Commission under the Chinese government. I don't see why the Chinese government can't restrict the business behavior of companies under its own umbrella.

Thirdly, does what you said have anything to do with the fact that the US has taken the lead in starting a trade war and using sanctions against all developing countries around the world for a long time? Isn't it a fact that China's behavior is to fight back?

What shameless American logic. It is said in the Bible that “he who uses the sword will die by the sword”, and it is God's will that the United States, which has abused sanctions, should die by them.

 

[SaadH]

US exports are 30% of Vietnam's GDP and Chinese exports are about 18%. Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place.

Importantly, most other major trading economies like the EU, Japan, Canada, India, South Korea, GCC, Australia, etc would rather join the US bloc rather than the Chinese if push comes to shove. So, Vietnam has more to lose by being excluded from the US bloc.

In about 10 years time when dedollarization will be in full swing, US won't have any money to spare to import anything from Vietnam. The 30% will shrink down to a much smaller number. It's best for Viets to cast their lot with Chinese now instead of facing their wrath in a few years.

 

[MH.Yang]

US exports are 30% of Vietnam's GDP and Chinese exports are about 18%. Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place.

Importantly, most other major trading economies like the EU, Japan, Canada, India, South Korea, GCC, Australia, etc would rather join the US bloc rather than the Chinese if push comes to shove. So, Vietnam has more to lose by being excluded from the US bloc.

The reality now is that no country other than the UK has a trade deal with the US. Even Japan has reached an economic agreement with China to deal with the US “blackmail” on the world.

The US is now the country that has been abandoned by the world. The reason why these countries do not reach an agreement with the United States is that they all believe that China will win and the United States will lose.

 

[sambody]

Economically, the biggest trade partner of South Korea, Japan, Australia, GCC countries and India is China, not US. So is Vietnam currently. Unless US blackmails these countries, they will probably stay that way.

Customer is king and for each of these countries the US is the most important export market. China is currently the lowest cost producer because of economies of scale but tariffs are desgined to disrupt that dynamic.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Well, Vietnam will get screwed again like Iran.

The US can offer nothing to Vietnam in fact, but keep following its detrimental policy against China will be your own peril.