USA's renewed Interest in Pakistan - Implications for India

[kambhakt]

The US is not interested in Pakistan beyond contracting the army generals to do few assignments here and there. There’s no engagement at the government level, and why should there be as the army GHQ is a one-stop shop.

Engagement at GHQ level = engagement at government level.

Are you going to accept how things are due to geography, or try and work around things?

The question isn't about feasibility alone, but security on long-term basis. For a country's security, sometimes extra costs are acceptable.

Security has to be balanced with affordability and reliability. You cannot have a reliable route via the Himalayan range and Tibetan Plateau. Myanmar is much better once one side wins the war there.

 

[Pingle]

USA sudden interest in Pakistan to me looks like an Iran factor behind..... seems USA is in her final stages of attacking Iran and while going up against such a powerful Muslim nation USA needs support from Pakistan.... just like they had it while attacking Afghanistan...... we can expect billions of dollars aid and hi-tech weapons supply to Pakistan if this is true......

 

[VersusChristi]

Pakistan needs china for economic assistance.And China needs Pakistan for avoiding blocked of Strait of Mallaca by America and Allies It's a win win situation for both countries.. PLA navy logically in future will have a large presences guarding China trade routes and oil from Middle East and what ever mischief Us plans for Iran it will not be from Pakistan soil,

Bhai, ports in CPEC have been open for quite some time now... How much tonnage or 20 ft container equivalent shipment has happened over each year?

The entire CPEC route is a little bit of a bridge too far with too many weak points. Only if Pakistan had developed industry fast enough, it would have been very useful. May be in future.

 

[Pingle]

The game is not GB.

China desperately needs (thirsting for) warm water access.

Same reason why the USSR invaded godforsaken Afghanistan.

GB is only their forward staging area. Which Beijing needs.

New Delhi does not need a forward staging area.

As I said, it will be a race. Much like that for Kashmir in 47.

Cheers, Doc

China doesn't desperately needs or thirsting for warm water access as it's ports are not frozen most of the year like Russia..... its Russia who is thirsting for such warm water ports.....

China needs it as if you observe China map technically its a landlocked nation with 3 islands chains mostly under the control of USA and allies, then come through the archeological Indonesia, malacca strait where India sits on Andaman and finally pass through IOR where again together USA and Indian navy can make things miserable for their shipping lines in case of hostility.....

So it's an alternative connectivity to middle east via land route through Pakistan that China is interested in..... it doesn't have frozen ports issues like Russia.....

 

[KingQamaR]

Bhai, ports in CPEC have been open for quite some time now... How much tonnage or 20 ft container equivalent shipment has happened over each year?

The entire CPEC route is a little bit of a bridge too far with too many weak points. Only if Pakistan had developed industry fast enough, it would have been very useful. May be in future.

Gwadar needs more time bhai to speed up its progress. It did not have roads until 20 years ago , just a small fishing village , look at it now. The main challenge is the slow paced bureaucracy, and Pakistan’s idiot Politicians, Its frustrating I know , it will be interesting to see how these huge projects play out in the future. friend china huge help money has built roads railways bridges dams power stations. Through out pakistan. Under the belt road. ITS down to Pakistanis now to make it come together and work.

 

[vsdoc]

China doesn't desperately needs or thirsting for warm water access as it's ports are not frozen most of the year like Russia..... its Russia who is thirsting for such warm water ports.....

China needs it as if you observe China map technically its a landlocked nation with 3 islands chains mostly under the control of USA and allies, then come through the archeological Indonesia, malacca strait where India sits on Andaman and finally pass through IOR where again together USA and Indian navy can make things miserable for their shipping lines in case of hostility.....

So it's an alternative connectivity to middle east via land route through Pakistan that China is interested in..... it doesn't have frozen ports issues like Russia.....

Okay.

Cheers, Doc

 

[Guru Dutt]

Billi ko chichron ke khwab

Yahi to mai ai reya sirji .... all this US getting close to Pakistan again is a figment of imagination of that desparate lobby whose source of income has dried up after US & allies had left afgahnistan

and now since china also wants to work only after it gets its loan money settelled and even the rich arabs are not bieng as generous towars there pakistani brothers who thought themselfs as if they were islam ka quilla and world needed to feed them like a spoiled child are now feeling like left alone in the open field without food or protection

hence they want USA to come back again and give them money and weapons like before for which they are trying to creat a paranoia of China and India war in the rgion ..... KOI SHAQU...???

 

[Dalit]

Rohit asked: What security implications do you see by the presence of PLA or the Chinese army in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Priyanka Singh replies: In recent past, there has been extensive reportage on the possible presence of PLA (Peoples’ Liberation Army) soldiers in Gilgit Baltistan region of PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). In October 2011, Chief of the Indian Army, General V.K. Singh, also endorsed this...

idsa.in

Chinese PLA surveys villages and military posts in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

www.deccanherald.com

China may be looking at setting up a military base in Pakistan's Gwadar - Times of India

Pakistan News: Beijing recently announced that it is looking to "expand into new fields of military cooperation" with Islamabad, raising global concerns that the Peo

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Why Was the US Ambassador’s Visit to Gwadar Important?

After staying away from Balochistan for over 15 years, the United States is showing increasing interest in the strategic, China-funded and operated port of Gwadar.

thediplomat.com

India takes note of Pak Army chief's meetings in Washington

akistani Army chief General Asim Munir met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defence Llyod J Austin, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q Brown.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Will Pakistan offer drone bases to US to target terror outfits?

Balochistan caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai on Wednesday (Dec 13) posted on X and subsequently deleted a series of proposed actions in response to a deadly terror attack on a military camp. Achakzai suggested that Pakistan should offer "drone bases to target militant sanctuaries in...

www.wionews.com

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Bombings in Iran

The group, which has struck before in Iran, has a long history of division with the country.

www.nytimes.com

US Designates China, Pakistan As "Countries of Particular Concern"

The US has designated China, North Korea, and Pakistan as "Countries of Particular Concern" for engaging in and tolerating "particularly severe violations of religious freedom."

www.ndtv.com

Am posting here few articles, just to given a chronology of events happening around India. This is to give an idea of recent events, between US and Pakistan. Pakistan is a sovereign nation, and has every right to take its own decisions first of all. However as a neighbor, India will be keeping a watch as there will be effects of short and long term significance for us. I believe Pakistan will be doing the same, so this is just an attempt to understand what might be happening and can affect us. Having said that:

I believe that Mr Munir's visit to USA isn't just to get their blessing, to continue in his current position. Given Pakistan's economic issues, and Chinese slowing down in further investments into CPEC, and taking time to rolling over the loans (which happened eventually, post Western approval and then Saudi help) Pakistan is re-aligning towards West now. Considering US and Chinese duking it out, Pakistan seems to be back in significance.

I have attached few articles, at the time when CPEC was in full swing. Back in 2011 and 2012 PLA soldiers seemed to have been spotted, in Gligit Baltistan. General Jacob from India seemed to have written a article on this, but India just didn't make any noise on this (not sure if some discussions happened, but nothing in public). Its not a secret that Chinese to secure their energy supply, have been working on getting a route through Pakistan (to avoid Malacca Straits). If this happens US will not be able to contain China, so making sure this doesn't happen is but logical.

In light of above, its very much possible that US's hasty retreat (where they left back billions of dollars worth arms and ammunitions), was no mistake. They seemed to have done this, to make sure there is supply of arms to parties they might have been in touch with. It helped very much in destabilizing Pakistan (via TTP), and there have been some devastating attacks inside their country. Prior to IK's ouster, Pakistan was well on its way to form a proper axis with China and Russia. Chinese entry into Middle East (Iran and Saudi deal), and its BRI have also spooked USA for sure. What better way to cut this down to size, right at the starting point that is Pakistan from where it begins and is close to Chinese border itself?

Pakistan's economic problem has been properly utilized by US, in its plan to contain China. In a way Pakistan has been brow beaten by USA, to get back into its fold and away from China. It is also possible that USA will be getting a secret drone base in Balochistan (or already got access), to keep an eye on this region. India's own issues with USA is another reason, and then there is Iran. Pakistan is the perfect point, to keep an eye on Pakistan itself along with India/China/Iran.

The last article if you see, puts Pakistan on the list of 'Countries of particular interest to USA'. It feels like our region is going to see, lot of chaos in this power game that is starting again. Now I can be totally wrong in my reading, so will welcome any corrections. Thanks for reading

@vsdoc @Joe Shearer @Guru Dutt @onlinpunit @vkdindian @CallSignMaverick @spammmmer @Faceless @Nilgiri @nahtanbob @Barcid @Hari Sud @Archie @VersusChristi @BhootPishash @Pingle @kambhakt @Guynextdoor @Surya2023 @Vikramaditya1 @pikkuboss @Sam. @RescueRanger @_NOBODY_ @Fatman17 @Oscar @Baali Jutt @FuturePAF @Zarvan

The Americans can't do much apart from providing IMF loans. Pakistan is a solid Chinese ally and partner. I am afraid for the US, the Pakistanis have become good at the art of extracting interests and identifying friend and foe. Just because you have a foe doesn't mean he cannot be helpful in certain regards.

 

[kambhakt]

Rohit asked: What security implications do you see by the presence of PLA or the Chinese army in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Priyanka Singh replies: In recent past, there has been extensive reportage on the possible presence of PLA (Peoples’ Liberation Army) soldiers in Gilgit Baltistan region of PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). In October 2011, Chief of the Indian Army, General V.K. Singh, also endorsed this...

idsa.in

Chinese PLA surveys villages and military posts in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

www.deccanherald.com

China may be looking at setting up a military base in Pakistan's Gwadar - Times of India

Pakistan News: Beijing recently announced that it is looking to "expand into new fields of military cooperation" with Islamabad, raising global concerns that the Peo

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Why Was the US Ambassador’s Visit to Gwadar Important?

After staying away from Balochistan for over 15 years, the United States is showing increasing interest in the strategic, China-funded and operated port of Gwadar.

thediplomat.com

India takes note of Pak Army chief's meetings in Washington

akistani Army chief General Asim Munir met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defence Llyod J Austin, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q Brown.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Will Pakistan offer drone bases to US to target terror outfits?

Balochistan caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai on Wednesday (Dec 13) posted on X and subsequently deleted a series of proposed actions in response to a deadly terror attack on a military camp. Achakzai suggested that Pakistan should offer "drone bases to target militant sanctuaries in...

www.wionews.com

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Bombings in Iran

The group, which has struck before in Iran, has a long history of division with the country.

www.nytimes.com

US Designates China, Pakistan As "Countries of Particular Concern"

The US has designated China, North Korea, and Pakistan as "Countries of Particular Concern" for engaging in and tolerating "particularly severe violations of religious freedom."

www.ndtv.com

Am posting here few articles, just to given a chronology of events happening around India. This is to give an idea of recent events, between US and Pakistan. Pakistan is a sovereign nation, and has every right to take its own decisions first of all. However as a neighbor, India will be keeping a watch as there will be effects of short and long term significance for us. I believe Pakistan will be doing the same, so this is just an attempt to understand what might be happening and can affect us. Having said that:

I believe that Mr Munir's visit to USA isn't just to get their blessing, to continue in his current position. Given Pakistan's economic issues, and Chinese slowing down in further investments into CPEC, and taking time to rolling over the loans (which happened eventually, post Western approval and then Saudi help) Pakistan is re-aligning towards West now. Considering US and Chinese duking it out, Pakistan seems to be back in significance.

I have attached few articles, at the time when CPEC was in full swing. Back in 2011 and 2012 PLA soldiers seemed to have been spotted, in Gligit Baltistan. General Jacob from India seemed to have written a article on this, but India just didn't make any noise on this (not sure if some discussions happened, but nothing in public). Its not a secret that Chinese to secure their energy supply, have been working on getting a route through Pakistan (to avoid Malacca Straits). If this happens US will not be able to contain China, so making sure this doesn't happen is but logical.

In light of above, its very much possible that US's hasty retreat (where they left back billions of dollars worth arms and ammunitions), was no mistake. They seemed to have done this, to make sure there is supply of arms to parties they might have been in touch with. It helped very much in destabilizing Pakistan (via TTP), and there have been some devastating attacks inside their country. Prior to IK's ouster, Pakistan was well on its way to form a proper axis with China and Russia. Chinese entry into Middle East (Iran and Saudi deal), and its BRI have also spooked USA for sure. What better way to cut this down to size, right at the starting point that is Pakistan from where it begins and is close to Chinese border itself?

Pakistan's economic problem has been properly utilized by US, in its plan to contain China. In a way Pakistan has been brow beaten by USA, to get back into its fold and away from China. It is also possible that USA will be getting a secret drone base in Balochistan (or already got access), to keep an eye on this region. India's own issues with USA is another reason, and then there is Iran. Pakistan is the perfect point, to keep an eye on Pakistan itself along with India/China/Iran.

The last article if you see, puts Pakistan on the list of 'Countries of particular interest to USA'. It feels like our region is going to see, lot of chaos in this power game that is starting again. Now I can be totally wrong in my reading, so will welcome any corrections. Thanks for reading

@vsdoc @Joe Shearer @Guru Dutt @onlinpunit @vkdindian @CallSignMaverick @spammmmer @Faceless @Nilgiri @nahtanbob @Barcid @Hari Sud @Archie @VersusChristi @BhootPishash @Pingle @kambhakt @Guynextdoor @Surya2023 @Vikramaditya1 @pikkuboss @Sam. @RescueRanger @_NOBODY_ @Fatman17 @Oscar @Baali Jutt @FuturePAF @Zarvan

All their recent military purchases are from China. Economically they can survive only with the help of the US. They have been talking of being balanced between US and China. If they are not allowed a balanced relationship, they are in deep s**t.

 

[indushek]

The Americans can't do much apart from providing IMF loans. Pakistan is a solid Chinese ally and partner. I am afraid for the US, the Pakistanis have become good at the art of extracting interests and identifying friend and foe. Just because you have a foe doesn't mean he cannot be helpful in certain regards.

That is fine, as everybody has to look after their own interest. Nothing wrong with that, and there are no permanent foes in realpolitik.

What am wondering about, is America's intentions for this region.

 

[indushek]

Engagement at GHQ level = engagement at government level.

Security has to be balanced with affordability and reliability. You cannot have a reliable route via the Himalayan range and Tibetan Plateau. Myanmar is much better once one side wins the war there.

Its better to avoid wars as long as possible

 

[indushek]

Billi ko chichron ke khwab

Khwab na ho to achamba hai, hai to aam baat hai.

 

[indushek]

All their recent military purchases are from China. Economically they can survive only with the help of the US. They have been talking of being balanced between US and China. If they are not allowed a balanced relationship, they are in deep s**t.

If West denies weapons, they have to go the other way. Problem here isn't Pakistan at this point, but what's the plan of US and reaction of China.

 

[kambhakt]

If West denies weapons, they have to go the other way. Problem here isn't Pakistan at this point, but what's the plan of US and reaction of China.

Wait for the US elections. If Trump wins, all plans are upended.

 

[indushek]

Wait for the US elections. If Trump wins, all plans are upended.

Disagree

Plans will only speed up, as he is even more anti China. Problem isn't them fighting a war, but financing one. Who they will use for it, remains to be seen.