What the Indian Air Force ought to do if Narendra Modi had a Spine

[Lulldapull]

Pakistan is rapidly replacing its Western systems with Chinese ones. India also needs to quickly replace its Western and Russian platforms with indigenous ones and upgrade the Su-30MKI with Indian avionics. Otherwise, India will face significant difficulties in fighting a two-front war.

You do understand/ realize that yous got a totally obsolescent military from da last century?

Do you not know whats goin down in de Persiand Gulf or Ukraine'd?

You want me to hold your hand and explaind all dis to you?

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

Negotiations for F35 and India specific Modifications will also take atleast 10 years and first flight of AMCA is scheduled in september 2028, and service Induction by 2032,

F35 will need to Have Indian Mission Computer, Indian Radar, Indian EW Suite, Indian Data link and a lot of other modifications to communicate with Indian NETRA AWACS, Tejas and Su30MKI

176 Rafale deal worth 70 billion dollars is all about the next generation fighter jet engine India and France are co developing to power AMCA and Tejas MK2 the engine deal itself costs 8 billion dollars otherwise there was no point in rafale deal either becaue Tejas MK2 is also scheduled to have first flight next year in september

Pakistan also operates F-16s and Saab AWACS, so Pakistan Air Force is not entirely based on Chinese systems. Pakistan aims to develop a fully integrated force built around Chinese platforms, that transition will take 15–20 years. By that time, Indian Air Force will have the AMCA, Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, Super Sukhoi, and the next batch of Rafales, which will also come equipped with Indian avionics.

In my opinion, the Indian Air Force is at least 15-16 years behind where it should be. Looking back, India could have seriously considered local production of the Eurofighter Typhoon around 2010 to strengthen its fighter fleet and industrial base. For years, many Indian politicians portrayed Pakistan as an economically weak country with limited capabilities. However, despite numerous economic and political challenges, Pakistan managed to maintain its military capabilities and, at times, surprise India strategically. One factor often overlooked is the extensive military and financial support Pakistan received from the China over several decades.

Today, India faces some difficult decisions regarding its future fighter fleet. The choices surrounding additional Rafales, the Su-57, and other advanced platforms will have long-term consequences. Even if the F-35 were offered, its operation could come with restrictions given India's longstanding defense relationship with Russia.

That said, the Tejas program should not be viewed as a failure. Over the past three decades, India has gained invaluable experience in aircraft design, systems integration, testing, and aerospace manufacturing. Those lessons can play a critical role in ensuring that the Tejas Mk2 and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program avoid many of the setbacks that affected earlier projects.

Personally, I believe India should consider a European engine solution rather than relying heavily on American, particularly if long-term strategic autonomy is a priority.

As of now, the Tejas Mk2 is still in the prototype development and testing phase and has not entered full-scale production. The timeline for extensive testing, certification, and eventual induction will depend on how successfully the flight-test program progresses. Likewise, the AMCA remains a highly ambitious project that will require years of prototype development, testing, certification, and industrial preparation before meaningful production can begin. Both programs represent important milestones in India's pursuit of self-reliance in military aviation, but they will require sustained investment, realistic timelines, and disciplined execution to succeed.

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

Pakistan is rapidly replacing its Western systems with Chinese ones. India also needs to quickly replace its Western and Russian platforms with indigenous ones and upgrade the Su-30MKI with Indian avionics. Otherwise, India will face significant difficulties in fighting a two-front war.

India's Su-30 production and upgrade pace appears too slow given the need to replace aging fighter aircraft. If the goal is to maintain squadron strength over the next decade, production rates may need to increase significantly, potentially reaching 40 aircraft annually. Given the limited options available and the time required for next-generation programs to mature, India should also explore a comprehensive modernization package for its Su-30 fleet, similar in scope to the upgrades China implemented on the J-16. Such an approach could extend the aircraft's operational relevance and enhance combat capability.

 

[Yasser76]

India's Su-30 production and upgrade pace appears too slow given the need to replace aging fighter aircraft. If the goal is to maintain squadron strength over the next decade, production rates may need to increase significantly, potentially reaching 40 aircraft annually. Given the limited options available and the time required for next-generation programs to mature, India should also explore a comprehensive modernization package for its Su-30 fleet, similar in scope to the upgrades China implemented on the J-16. Such an approach could extend the aircraft's operational relevance and enhance combat capability.

100% agreed, its a big platform, a lot of power and range. Could have easily been turned into a 4.5th gen beast like China did with J-16 and US have done with F-15EX

Issue is all these programmes were designed and implemented 10-15 years ago and coming to fruitation. India has literally missed the bus here. It inducted the SU-30 in the late 90s and in 30 years has done nothing with it. If they were to implement upgrades HAL is stating 10 years (so basically 15 taking into account HALs over promising). That means delivering SU-30s in a post 2040 timeline. Forget about 5th gen by then

Europe, China and US will all be delivering 6th Gen aircraft to their air forces.

It will be like PAF just now taking delivery of basic 1982 level F-16As.....

 

[Yasser76]

In my opinion, the Indian Air Force is at least 15-16 years behind where it should be. Looking back, India could have seriously considered local production of the Eurofighter Typhoon around 2010 to strengthen its fighter fleet and industrial base. For years, many Indian politicians portrayed Pakistan as an economically weak country with limited capabilities. However, despite numerous economic and political challenges, Pakistan managed to maintain its military capabilities and, at times, surprise India strategically. One factor often overlooked is the extensive military and financial support Pakistan received from the China over several decades.

Today, India faces some difficult decisions regarding its future fighter fleet. The choices surrounding additional Rafales, the Su-57, and other advanced platforms will have long-term consequences. Even if the F-35 were offered, its operation could come with restrictions given India's longstanding defense relationship with Russia.

That said, the Tejas program should not be viewed as a failure. Over the past three decades, India has gained invaluable experience in aircraft design, systems integration, testing, and aerospace manufacturing. Those lessons can play a critical role in ensuring that the Tejas Mk2 and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program avoid many of the setbacks that affected earlier projects.

Personally, I believe India should consider a European engine solution rather than relying heavily on American, particularly if long-term strategic autonomy is a priority.

As of now, the Tejas Mk2 is still in the prototype development and testing phase and has not entered full-scale production. The timeline for extensive testing, certification, and eventual induction will depend on how successfully the flight-test program progresses. Likewise, the AMCA remains a highly ambitious project that will require years of prototype development, testing, certification, and industrial preparation before meaningful production can begin. Both programs represent important milestones in India's pursuit of self-reliance in military aviation, but they will require sustained investment, realistic timelines, and disciplined execution to succeed.

They are in a complete bind here. The powers with the very latest tech and the industrial capacity to deliver at scale are US and China. India is not close enough to get high end equipment from either.
Russia and France are the only game in town for them and both offerings there fall short of real 5th gen. Both also have major issues delivering at scale. France started Rafale production in 1997 and has delivered only 325 aircraft to clients and French forces so far. So barely over 100 planes every 10 years. Russia started producing SU-57 in 2019 and delivered 50 odd so far. That is less then 10 planes a year.


Lockheed is churning out 157 F-35s a year and China around 120 odd J-20s a year and probably more J-35s a year.
Both countries will soon start mass producing 6th Gen J-36/F-47 within 5 years.

See the problem India now has? It will have to rely on HAL (Of all people!) to import either Rafale or SU-57 production line, set it up, get vital subsytems from OEMs,, try and integrate Indian subsystems and weapons and test these and at the same time manufacture more units of Rafales/SU-57s per year then even France or Russia themselves managed.

This is the sheer scale of the problem IAF now finds itself in. Whatever way you dice it, you are looking at IAF accepting obsolete fighters off a HAL production line in the 2040s...

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

They are in a complete bind here. The powers with the very latest tech and the industrial capacity to deliver at scale are US and China. India is not close enough to get high end equipment from either.
Russia and France are the only game in town for them and both offerings there fall short of real 5th gen. Both also have major issues delivering at scale. France started Rafale production in 1997 and has delivered only 325 aircraft to clients and French forces so far. So barely over 100 planes every 10 years. Russia started producing SU-57 in 2019 and delivered 50 odd so far. That is less then 10 planes a year.


Lockheed is churning out 157 F-35s a year and China around 120 odd J-20s a year and probably more J-35s a year.
Both countries will soon start mass producing 6th Gen J-36/F-47 within 5 years.

See the problem India now has? It will have to rely on HAL (Of all people!) to import either Rafale or SU-57 production line, set it up, get vital subsytems from OEMs,, try and integrate Indian subsystems and weapons and test these and at the same time manufacture more units of Rafales/SU-57s per year then even France or Russia themselves managed.

This is the sheer scale of the problem IAF now finds itself in. Whatever way you dice it, you are looking at IAF accepting obsolete fighters off a HAL production line in the 2040s...

India undoubtedly has some of the brightest minds in the world, but the real challenge lies in how effectively those resources are being utilized. Many YouTubers and commentators fail to appreciate the tremendous effort and expense involved in operating and sustaining fighter aircraft, especially aging fleets. We experienced this ourselves with the Mirage III/V, where keeping the aircraft combat-ready required significant investment over the years.

Going forward, India will face some difficult decisions. The MiG-29 fleet will need upgrades, the Su-30s will require modernization, and even the Mirage 2000s will likely need another round of enhancements within the next five years. Meanwhile, the Tejas program, which was expected to become the backbone of the Indian Air Force, is still struggling to achieve its intended scale and operational impact.

The Indian Air Force is also dealing with the burden of operating too many different aircraft platforms. This creates higher maintenance, logistics, and optimization costs, while also increasing dependence on foreign suppliers for upgrades, spare parts, and technical support. Simplifying the fleet and accelerating indigenous programs may be essential for long-term sustainability.

I had this discussion with a few Indian friends, but some people don't like hearing uncomfortable truths. I told them that if India wants to keep the Mirage 2000 fleet flying beyond 2040, it should seriously consider acquiring 20-30 retired Mirage 2000s from France for spare parts and replacement airframes. At the same time, Tejas production needs to be ramped up before older fighters are phased out.
Apparently, that wasn't a very popular opinion. Ever since that conversation, they've stopped offering me their Iranian tea.

 

[Michael]

100% agreed, its a big platform, a lot of power and range. Could have easily been turned into a 4.5th gen beast like China did with J-16 and US have done with F-15EX

Do you think this step is easy?

It’s not that India doesn’t want to—it’s that it can’t. This path is exceptionally difficult; the actual investment required far exceeds what one might imagine.

You can use any AI tool to obtain a detailed analysis.

 

[Yasser76]

Do you think this step is easy?

It’s not that India doesn’t want to—it’s that it can’t. This path is exceptionally difficult; the actual investment required far exceeds what one might imagine.

You can use any AI tool to obtain a detailed analysis.

Not saying its easy at all, my point was even if India was capable of this, it missed it's chance

 

[Yasser76]

India undoubtedly has some of the brightest minds in the world, but the real challenge lies in how effectively those resources are being utilized. Many YouTubers and commentators fail to appreciate the tremendous effort and expense involved in operating and sustaining fighter aircraft, especially aging fleets. We experienced this ourselves with the Mirage III/V, where keeping the aircraft combat-ready required significant investment over the years.

Going forward, India will face some difficult decisions. The MiG-29 fleet will need upgrades, the Su-30s will require modernization, and even the Mirage 2000s will likely need another round of enhancements within the next five years. Meanwhile, the Tejas program, which was expected to become the backbone of the Indian Air Force, is still struggling to achieve its intended scale and operational impact.

The Indian Air Force is also dealing with the burden of operating too many different aircraft platforms. This creates higher maintenance, logistics, and optimization costs, while also increasing dependence on foreign suppliers for upgrades, spare parts, and technical support. Simplifying the fleet and accelerating indigenous programs may be essential for long-term sustainability.

I had this discussion with a few Indian friends, but some people don't like hearing uncomfortable truths. I told them that if India wants to keep the Mirage 2000 fleet flying beyond 2040, it should seriously consider acquiring 20-30 retired Mirage 2000s from France for spare parts and replacement airframes. At the same time, Tejas production needs to be ramped up before older fighters are phased out.
Apparently, that wasn't a very popular opinion. Ever since that conversation, they've stopped offering me their Iranian tea.

I think Mirage 2000 has been and gone now in terms of further upgrades. The French sold the upgrade from 2000 to 2000-5/9 as some super game changer but all it delivered was a slightly better radar and missiles. No long BVR, no AESA. Now it is being retired world wide India will have to develop its own upgrade for it, that is beyond them right now.

 

[Yasser76]

Negotiations for F35 and India specific Modifications will also take atleast 10 years and first flight of AMCA is scheduled in september 2028, and service Induction by 2032,

F35 will need to Have Indian Mission Computer, Indian Radar, Indian EW Suite, Indian Data link and a lot of other modifications to communicate with Indian NETRA AWACS, Tejas and Su30MKI

176 Rafale deal worth 70 billion dollars is all about the next generation fighter jet engine India and France are co developing to power AMCA and Tejas MK2 the engine deal itself costs 8 billion dollars otherwise there was no point in rafale deal either becaue Tejas MK2 is also scheduled to have first flight next year in september

Pakistan also operates F-16s and Saab AWACS, so Pakistan Air Force is not entirely based on Chinese systems. Pakistan aims to develop a fully integrated force built around Chinese platforms, that transition will take 15–20 years. By that time, Indian Air Force will have the AMCA, Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, Super Sukhoi, and the next batch of Rafales, which will also come equipped with Indian avionics.

Thanks, its cold and raining here in the UK, was. bit miserable, but I have never laughed so much in days. Great post, looking forward to chapter two of "Indian Fantasies in the Defence Sphere"....

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

I think Mirage 2000 has been and gone now in terms of further upgrades. The French sold the upgrade from 2000 to 2000-5/9 as some super game changer but all it delivered was a slightly better radar and missiles. No long BVR, no AESA. Now it is being retired world wide India will have to develop its own upgrade for it, that is beyond them right now.

There are two ways to look at this issue. The first is from a sustainability and cost perspective. Since the Mirage platform has been operated by numerous countries over several decades, In near future there might be inventory of retired aircraft, spare parts, and technical expertise available. That makes it easier and often more affordable to keep older fleets operational. Pakistan's Mirage fleet is a good example of how a country can extend the service life of an aging aircraft through upgrades, cannibalized parts, and strong maintenance practices.

The second perspective is modernization. If the airframes still have sufficient structural life remaining and India is willing to invest the resources, there is no reason they cannot pursue their own upgrade program with French approval. Modern radars, electronic warfare suites, communications systems, and weapons integration can transform an older platform into a much more capable aircraft. The real question is whether such an investment aligns with India's long-term defense strategy over the next 20 to 25 years.

Looking back at the late 2000s, I personally believe India missed an opportunity to prioritize local production and technology transfer. If I had been a strategic planner during the 2007-2009 period, I would have strongly considered the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Saab Gripen, provided there was a meaningful domestic manufacturing arrangement. While the initial costs of setting up production lines, training the workforce, and developing industrial infrastructure would have been higher, the long-term benefits could have outweighed those expenses. Developing aerospace expertise at home provides strategic independence that cannot be measured solely in procurement costs.

Today, however, the options are more limited and far more complex. The F-35 is arguably the most advanced fighter available, but it comes with considerable restrictions regarding technology access, software control, and source code ownership. For a country that values strategic autonomy and operational independence, those limitations could become a significant concern despite the aircraft's impressive capabilities.

The Russian Su-35 and SU-57 remains an attractive option in terms of performance, range, payload, and compatibility with India's existing experience operating Russian origin equipment. It would likely be one of the safer and more familiar choices from an operational standpoint. However, long-term support, logistics, and geopolitical factors would inevitably play a role in any procurement decision.

The Rafale has already demonstrated its effectiveness and is widely regarded as one of the best multirole fighters in service today. It offers excellent combat capability, advanced avionics, and proven operational flexibility. Its main challenges are cost and production capacity. Expanding the fleet quickly can be difficult when acquisition budgets are under pressure and manufacturing rates are relatively slow.

Ultimately, the decision should not be based solely on which aircraft has the best specifications. India's real challenge is finding the right balance between combat capability, affordability, technology transfer, domestic industrial development, strategic autonomy, and long-term sustainability. The aircraft itself is only part of the equation; the ability to support, upgrade, and operate it effectively for decades is what truly determines its value.

 

[r3alist]

India undoubtedly has some of the brightest minds in the world, but the real challenge lies in how effectively those resources are being utilized. Many YouTubers and commentators fail to appreciate the tremendous effort and expense involved in operating and sustaining fighter aircraft, especially aging fleets. We experienced this ourselves with the Mirage III/V, where keeping the aircraft combat-ready required significant investment over the years.

Going forward, India will face some difficult decisions. The MiG-29 fleet will need upgrades, the Su-30s will require modernization, and even the Mirage 2000s will likely need another round of enhancements within the next five years. Meanwhile, the Tejas program, which was expected to become the backbone of the Indian Air Force, is still struggling to achieve its intended scale and operational impact.

The Indian Air Force is also dealing with the burden of operating too many different aircraft platforms. This creates higher maintenance, logistics, and optimization costs, while also increasing dependence on foreign suppliers for upgrades, spare parts, and technical support. Simplifying the fleet and accelerating indigenous programs may be essential for long-term sustainability.

I had this discussion with a few Indian friends, but some people don't like hearing uncomfortable truths. I told them that if India wants to keep the Mirage 2000 fleet flying beyond 2040, it should seriously consider acquiring 20-30 retired Mirage 2000s from France for spare parts and replacement airframes. At the same time, Tejas production needs to be ramped up before older fighters are phased out.
Apparently, that wasn't a very popular opinion. Ever since that conversation, they've stopped offering me their Iranian tea.

If they were so bright why so many issues?

Something huge is missing and they can't be considered bright if you have decades after decades...

Do you think this step is easy?

It’s not that India doesn’t want to—it’s that it can’t. This path is exceptionally difficult; the actual investment required far exceeds what one might imagine.

You can use any AI tool to obtain a detailed analysis.

Exactly, it can't, they have reached a new normal of being behind important developments

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

If they were so bright why so many issues?

Something huge is missing and they can't be considered bright if you have decades after decades...

Exactly, it can't, they have reached a new normal of being behind important developments

I have already answered your question in the post.
I was referring to Individuals, not their strategic planning team.

 

[r3alist]

I have already answered your question in the post.
I was referring to Individuals, not their strategic planning team.

Ok fair enough, but eventually you have enough individuals and you have an average over a period of time, in which case the good individuals don't really matter

It's about the level of the floor, technology changes require a higher floor and rapid changes need brilliant strategy and a high base level