Yemen Civil War News and Discussion.. an evolving situation

[Shags202]

A discussion on why Saudis are unable to beat the Yemenis.

Why can't the Saudis defeat the Houthis?

Saudi Arabia spends almost ten times Yemen's total GDP on its military. But despite being considerably weaker financially, Yemen's Houthis are gaining ground against their internationally supported rivals.

www.dw.com

I didn’t read the article but let’s if I get it right
Number one competing countries vying for power I.e. Saudi Arabia and UAE
Number two goes with number with one but multiple parties in southern Yemen who fight again one another or won’t assist the other in battle
Number three Houthis are unified under their leadership and will fight no matter the cost
Number four while number one and two have been competing against one another Iran has been building up the Houthis one mind one body they worked together on a long term plan of building up the Houthis and northern Yemen for a large confrontation

 

[PK781]

i don't see this fighting/conflict stopping anytime soon. I have a bad feeling that this will escalate into a full mideast war once everything goes up in flames (like the oil and gas infrastructure or the desalination plants) and then the targets would also be iran and pakistan too
right now it seems like on a slow flame but it can anytime spiral out of control.

obviously the zion/israel will ultimately benefit from all this muslim-muslim fighting.

 

[Falcon29]

A discussion on why Saudis are unable to beat the Yemenis.

Why can't the Saudis defeat the Houthis?

Saudi Arabia spends almost ten times Yemen's total GDP on its military. But despite being considerably weaker financially, Yemen's Houthis are gaining ground against their internationally supported rivals.

www.dw.com

This doesn't make what's happening good, keep that in mind.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

This doesn't make what's happening good, keep that in mind.

Imagine that.

Another well-armed, well-trained, and capable force once again being pushed back by a bunch of beardos wearing sandals.

Sound familiar?

 

[Falcon29]

I didn’t read the article but let’s if I get it right
Number one competing countries vying for power I.e. Saudi Arabia and UAE
Number two goes with number with one but multiple parties in southern Yemen who fight again one another or won’t assist the other in battle
Number three Houthis are unified under their leadership and will fight no matter the cost
Number four while number one and two have been competing against one another Iran has been building up the Houthis one mind one body they worked together on a long term plan of building up the Houthis and northern Yemen for a large confrontation

All good points in context of the civil and proxy war in Yemen. It's proxy because both Iran and Saudi's using both sides in Yemen to help secure their interests.

Current Saudi leadership foreign policy in Muslim world has been ineffective. This doesn't mean they don't have a good plan in place for security of their own nation. They aren't losing or fighting the war. It's a Yemeni on Yemeni war.

Saudi's do not want responsibility of being regional player and mostly want to be left alone + rely on soft power but their situation over past few decades forces them to have to adapt and take a spot as regional player.

Since they haven't it puts them in these kind of situations where they're helpless in changing the status quo. They didn't trust the parties in southern Yemen enough nor properly equip or train them and the result is costly.

It's just like Iran not preparing for what transpired in Gaza and the subsequent conflict with Israel. It seemed like nobody prepared but Hamas.

 

[Falcon29]

Imagine that.

Another well-armed, well-trained, and capable force once again being pushed back by a bunch of beardos wearing sandals.

Sound familiar?

Houthi's aren't fighting up against the Saudi army. That's an important distinction to make. They wouldn't have an easy time against the Saudi army. I just don't see that happening.

But in context of various Yemeni actors and parties, they are the most organized and well equipped + trained + experienced ones and it shows, clearly.

It's still risky, however. Because it's likely they were pressured by Iran and other allies in AOR and something that has a beginning like that just doesn't end good, imo.

It would have been better for Iran + Iraqi allies + Ansarallah to prepare joint strikes on Israel to create some leverage. Or Iran targeting assets in UAE. Both of those options could force US and Israel's hand at negotiating table but explosion of Yemeni civil war + trying to put Saudis in a desperate situation isn't the right move from my perspective. If I was in charge I wouldn't go that route. Agree to disagree.

I don't see it making Saudis desperate in the way assumed. Nor does it open a pathway to some fantasies some have about attacking Saudi Arabia. It's more likely Saudis just withdraw from Yemen and make it a Houthi responsibility.

Also don't see it compelling Saudis to normalize with Israel. Not because their leadership is against it or don't find it irrational, they may even be for it, but this transactional abusive relationship with the US is likely going to push them away from the US due to the nature of the relationship.

 

[Master Chief]

This doesn't make what's happening good, keep that in mind.

Stalemates, drawn out conflicts, grinding wars of attrition never benefit the two belligerents and instead, typically benefit one or more 3rd parties.

This is the advanced statecraft that illiterate khat chewers in Yemen and bacha baazis in Afghanistan will never understand and this is what makes them such useful idiots for said 3rd parties. Indeed, these characters are very much portrayed as romanticised rebels, the underdog, by western media, to deliberately appeal to some illogical sentiment among broader and less discerning civilian populations when in truth, their methods are ruthless and barbaric and their perceived morality is as flawed as anyone else's (if not far worse).

Operationally, the Houthis seem to be faring well in Yemen due to better organisation, morale, and determination. Credit where it's due. But what is the actual point of such a meaningless conflict? I'm not saying the parties who are Saudi backed or were UAE backed are necessarily "better". What none of these parties ever realise is that as soon as any one of them starts to CONSILIDATE power and build a nation, their wings will be clipped by a new "revolutionary front". The same people lauding the Houthis today will curse them 10 years from now for some "betrayal" or the other. Tel Aviv just rinses and repeats.

 

[Falcon29]

Ansarallah are attempting to besiege Taiz and appear on their way to doing so

Ansarallah are suffering losses during this attempt. I think the issue is here is what is the strategic objective. If this kicked off because Iranian government wanted it to, then the morale + motivation to press on with this if it isn't achieved in rapid manner, will decrease.

Going into the city proper would be very costly and governing a large group that don't like you won't be pretty. It's likely they attempt to besiege it as a way to get the opposition in Taiz to surrender with least bloodshed possible.

What is Saudi Arabia contingency plan ? Have no clue. They don't communicate well and from the looks of it they never had a contingency plan.

They'd need aid + weapons drops prepared for Taiz if Ansarallah are successful in cutting it off from southern Yemen. Then air support and ground reinforcements from other areas in Yemen.

 

[Falcon29]

Stalemates, drawn out conflicts, grinding wars of attrition never benefit the two belligerents and instead, typically benefit one or more 3rd parties.

This is the advanced statecraft that illiterate khat chewers in Yemen and bacha baazis in Afghanistan will never understand and this is what makes them such useful idiots for said 3rd parties. Indeed, these characters are very much portrayed as romanticised rebels, the underdog, by western media, to deliberately appeal to some illogical sentiment among broader and less discerning civilian populations when in truth, their methods are ruthless and barbaric and their perceived morality is as flawed as anyone else's (if not far worse).

Operationally, the Houthis seem to be faring well in Yemen due to better organisation, morale, and determination. Credit where it's due. But what is the actual point of such a meaningless conflict? I'm not saying the parties who are Saudi backed or were UAE backed are necessarily "better". What none of these parties ever realise is that as soon as any one of them starts to CONSILIDATE power and build a nation, their wings will be clipped by a new "revolutionary front". The same people lauding the Houthis today will curse them 10 years from now for some "betrayal" or the other. Tel Aviv just rinses and repeats.

Can't argue with that. I think Iran got desperate to create some leverage because it's under US economic siege (though US is allowing Russia and China to keep Iran afloat somewhat) and asked Ansarallah to consolidate control over coastal areas. They probably were trying to do that in cleanest way possible and then faced resistance along the way which grew into something larger that is has become now.

Personally not a fan of how the third parties are playing with Yemeni lives and well being, particularly Saudi's and Iranians.

Arab form of governance and tribal nature prevents people from getting equal representation and seeking to build instead of revolt. I'm sure if common people of Ansarallah had a chance they would. Or other common people of Yemen. It's just that the alternative in the Arab world is pretty crappy. It's like somewhat evil rulers that are also ineffective so it's not like there's anything to desire about it. It's a little bit pathetic to point where operating as a revolutionary movement may serve as better alternative to eyes of common people.