Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[Eşbah]

NEW — Greek retired Admiral Ioannis Engolfopoulos [on the Belharra frigate purchased by Greece from France]:

"No one would dare to create tension or confront with this frigate."
"Because the missiles we fire from the Aegean (Aegean Sea) can reach the Syrian-Iraqi border."

"The Greek navy is the strongest navy in the region. The Greek navy is unique compared to the navies in the region and in many parts of the world."

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[Foinikas]

NEW — Greek retired Admiral Ioannis Engolfopoulos [on the Belharra frigate purchased by Greece from France]:

"No one would dare to create tension or confront with this frigate."
"Because the missiles we fire from the Aegean (Aegean Sea) can reach the Syrian-Iraqi border."

"The Greek navy is the strongest navy in the region. The Greek navy is unique compared to the navies in the region and in many parts of the world."

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A video of him talking about the frigate appeared on youtube today,I click to watch it,I stopped after a few seconds.

We don't have the strongest Navy in the region. Not right now. I'm talking about equipment,not people. If we get all FDI HN and 2 or 4 FREMM Bergamini and modernize or replace all 4 MEKO 200HN and buy 4-5 new submarines,maybe. But now we don't.

And while the FDI HN is a great ship,I can't with all the "we fire a missile here it reaches the other side of the world". I know that Turkey has similar retired admirals,they're also on TV talking big. But anyway.

 

[hyperman]

Something is going on in Turkish Russian relations, there seems to be a breakdown.

Russians seem to be probing Turkish air defense

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[hodor]

Something is going on in Turkish Russian relations, there seems to be a breakdown.

Russians seem to be probing Turkish air defense

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This is no secret: Turkey sharply reduces imports of Russian crude oil​

 

[MMM-E]

"No one would dare to create tension or confront with this frigate."
"Because the missiles we fire from the Aegean (Aegean Sea) can reach the Syrian-Iraqi border."

so funny , MdCN Cruise Missile with speed of mach 0,65
even KORKUT SPAAG can intercept it .... also SUNGUR , HISAR-A/O , GURZ and GOKDEMIR Air Defense Systems

TAYFUN Ballistic Missile Family has speed of mach 5-10 with hypersonic speed
also CENK hypersonic Ballistic Missile on the way

Greece will need ARROW-3 or THAAD to intercept Turkish MRBMs ( TAYFUN Block4 and CENK )

"The Greek navy is the strongest navy in the region. The Greek navy is unique compared to the navies in the region and in many parts of the world."

We don't have the strongest Navy in the region. Not right now. I'm talking about equipment,not people. If we get all FDI HN and 2 or 4 FREMM Bergamini and modernize or replace all 4 MEKO 200HN and buy 4-5 new submarines,maybe. But now we don't.

Never ,, today or tomorrow

Upcoming Turkish Navy
-- 4 ADA class Corvettes
-- 4 modernized MEKO-200TN Frigates
-- 8 ISTIF class Frigates
-- 4 TF-2000 class Destroyers
-- 4 TF-2000 Flight II Frigates to replace OHP class Frigates
-- 10 HISAR class OPVs
-- 10 new Type FACs
-- 8 Type-209 class Submarines
-- 6 REIS ( Type-124TN ) class AIP Submarines
-- MILDEN class AIP Submarines
-- STM-500 mini attack Submarines
-- TCG UFUK Electronic Warfare Ship
-- 2 BAYRAKTAR class LST
-- 200 m TCG DERYA combat support auxiliary Ship
-- 232 m TCG ANADOLU amphibious assault Ship
-- 285 m MUGEM Aircraft Carrier
-- Unmanned combat Vessels and unmanned kamikaze Vessels

-- BARBAROS coastal Defense System with 400+ km ATMACA-UM anti-ship Missile
-- TAYFUN hypersonic anti-ship Ballistic Missile

also AKINCI , TB-3 , ANKA-S , AKSUNGUR UCAVs
and KIZILELMA , ANKA-3 unmanned stealth Fighter Jets

with 12 ASW Aircraft ( 6 CN-235 and 6 ATR-72 )
24 S-70 Seahawk ASW Helicopters and 10 AH-1W Super Cobra Attack Hellicopters

 

[Foinikas]

so funny , MdCN Cruise Missile with speed of mach 0,65
even KORKUT SPAAG can intercept it .... also SUNGUR , HISAR-A/O , GURZ and GOKDEMIR Air Defense Systems

It's still not 100% clear that we will actually buy MdCN. It was announced as one of Dendias typical sudden announcements during interviews and then he switched to ELSA which are still in development. The important thing is that we can still put Aster-30 in the A-70 cells which are for MdCN. So we can still have the originally intended 32xAster-30 and just ignore the MdCN and wait to see if the ELSA are any good.

Personally,I prefer the 32xAster-30 configuration and not reducing any for cruise missiles. We're at an age where 32 AA missiles is the very basic for a frigate now. Many of Greeks on defence site comments also insist we should install a Rapid Fire (40mm gun)or a couple of SADRAL for 12xMistral or the new MPLS.

Anyway,I think the important part is now the ECM. That's been a point of debate and fierce fighting on Greek defence sites for years.

 

[Foinikas]

Never ,, today or tomorrow

Upcoming Turkish Navy
-- 4 ADA class Corvettes
-- 4 modernized MEKO-200TN Frigates
-- 8 ISTIF class Frigates
-- 4 TF-2000 class Destroyers
-- 4 TF-2000 Flight II Frigates to replace OHP class Frigates
-- 10 HISAR class OPVs
-- 10 new Type FACs
-- 8 Type-209 class Submarines
-- 6 REIS ( Type-124TN ) class AIP Submarines
-- MILDEN class AIP Submarines
-- STM-500 mini attack Submarines
-- TCG UFUK Electronic Warfare Ship
-- 2 BAYRAKTAR class LST
-- 200 m TCG DERYA combat support auxiliary Ship
-- 232 m TCG ANADOLU amphibious assault Ship
-- 285 m MUGEM Aircraft Carrier
-- Unmanned combat Vessels and unmanned kamikaze Vessels

Don't be so cocky. Some of your upcoming projects are still just on paper. Many are not even under construction yet. Geopolitical and financial turmoils can always shift the balance. Years ago you thought you'd be having Altay ready,F-35s flying over the Aegean and at the same time S-400s. Around 2021-2022 you ended up with S-400s,
no F-35s,no Altay and out of nowhere there was a Hellenic Air Force with Rafale F3R and F-16Vs,while a good deal of Turkish F-16s were grounded.

 

[hyperman]

Don't be so cocky. Some of your upcoming projects are still just on paper. Many are not even under construction yet. Geopolitical and financial turmoils can always shift the balance. Years ago you thought you'd be having Altay ready,F-35s flying over the Aegean and at the same time S-400s. Around 2021-2022 you ended up with S-400s,
no F-35s,no Altay and out of nowhere there was a Hellenic Air Force with Rafale F3R and F-16Vs,while a good deal of Turkish F-16s were grounded.

Those things are due to sanctions, not due to the projects themselves.

 

[Foinikas]

Those things are due to sanctions, not due to the projects themselves.

Due to geopolitical shifts like I said above.

 

[hyperman]

Due to geopolitical shifts like I said above.

yes, Turkey didn't expect sanctions from its own allies. But the Geopolitics and Turkey's own capacity is very different from where it was 10 years ago in 2015. Turkey no longer really relies on imports on many platforms and is able to build things domestically.

Really outside of engines, and large transport aircraft, Turkey more or less is able to build its entire defense ecosystem inhouse. Maybe chips people care argue there is still reliance on, and Turkey does have plans to manufacture its own chips soon, but those can be sourced from elsewhere regardless.

 

[Eşbah]

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The Europeans will drop the Greeks like a hot potato once Ankara actually acts on this threat. You can clearly tell how much the Greek politicians bank on Israel.

 

[Foinikas]

in 2015. Turkey no longer really relies on imports on many platforms and is able to build things domestically.

What 2015? You only recovered from a big diplomatic collapse and were saved from an economic collapse 2-3 years ago!

You had reached a point where you had bad relations with:

USA,Germany,France,Sweden,Greece,Cyprus,Egypt,Israel,Saudi Arabia,UAE,Russia,Iran,
Armenia,Lebanon,Assad Syria,Iraq,Tobruk government of Libya,even Albania and Kosovo had some problems with you because of some diplomatic incidents. That was the high point. At the same time you had sanctions by USA and Germany. You had high inflation.

Then Erdogan changed changed his attitude,bowed the head and started visiting countries. He went from "Sisi dictator" to visit Sisi. He went from Salman tyrant,to "please invest in my country",he visited the UAE,he received the Israeli ambassador. He went from "Mitsotakis yok" to "Kyriakos my friend". He went from "Essad kesap!" to "We want to be friends". He went from "Haftar putchist!" to inviting him to Turkey.

Trump came to power,he changed policies concerning Turkey. Merz came to power,he stopped the sanctions. Meloni came to power,Italy started cooperating with Turkey.

See how easily a geopolitical situation can change?

 

[Foinikas]

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The Europeans will drop the Greeks like a hot potato once Ankara actually acts on this threat. You can clearly tell how much the Greek politicians bank on Israel.

The typical argument of AKP Turkey: "Greece can't place weapons on islands".

When this has been debunked again and again,but always used as a fake argument by Turkey,always to stir trouble.




Ah...Turkey which boldly proclaims "We will defend our interests" and has an entire Army of Aegean opposite our islands,yet feels annoyed when we try to defend our interests.

You have a Turkey that expands military presence close to us,yet feels threatened by M1117s with machine-guns. A Turkey which establishes entire UAV units on southeast Aegean,but is annoyed by the prospect of Greece doing something to defend the islands against such a thing.

And of course,a Turkey which has the largest landing fleet in the Mediterranean,but acts like it's us who are going to invade. A series of childish excuses to keep up tensions.

 

[hyperman]

What 2015? You only recovered from a big diplomatic collapse and were saved from an economic collapse 2-3 years ago!

You had reached a point where you had bad relations with:

USA,Germany,France,Sweden,Greece,Cyprus,Egypt,Israel,Saudi Arabia,UAE,Russia,Iran,
Armenia,Lebanon,Assad Syria,Iraq,Tobruk government of Libya,even Albania and Kosovo had some problems with you because of some diplomatic incidents. That was the high point. At the same time you had sanctions by USA and Germany. You had high inflation.

Then Erdogan changed changed his attitude,bowed the head and started visiting countries. He went from "Sisi dictator" to visit Sisi. He went from Salman tyrant,to "please invest in my country",he visited the UAE,he received the Israeli ambassador. He went from "Mitsotakis yok" to "Kyriakos my friend". He went from "Essad kesap!" to "We want to be friends". He went from "Haftar putchist!" to inviting him to Turkey.

Trump came to power,he changed policies concerning Turkey. Merz came to power,he stopped the sanctions. Meloni came to power,Italy started cooperating with Turkey.

See how easily a geopolitical situation can change?

I'm talking about weapons, not diplomacy. Turkey if it gets embargoed is in a better place than it was in 2015. Many weapons systems that it imported have been indigenized, and that trend will continue for the next 10 years.

Italy always cooperated.

The only significant change here you can say is the detente with Sisi. Turkey never fought with Saudi. Turkey fighting Emiratis in Sudan, its just more under the surface.

A few geopolitical things did change with Russian and Ukraine. Thats the main driver in Europe.

 

[Foinikas]

I'm talking about weapons, not diplomacy. Turkey if it gets embargoed is in a better place than it was in 2015. Many weapons systems that it imported have been indigenized, and that trend will continue for the next 10 years.

Italy always cooperated.

The only significant change here you can say is the detente with Sisi. Turkey never fought with Saudi. Turkey fighting Emiratis in Sudan, its just more under the surface.

A few geopolitical things did change with Russian and Ukraine. Thats the main driver in Europe.

But that's the thing,it's not just about weapons. Big sanctions or hostile stance by let's say a coalition of developed nations could have deeper consequences. Look at Iran. They insist their defence industry keeps them independent and everything,but the isolation makes them way weaker than what they could have been.