You are again conflating stable overall macro indicators with deep sectoral impacts to make illogical arguments. A large proportion of Indian exports to the US like iphones and pharma are still exempt from tariffs and are the main drivers of the growth that has offset the significant impact on the impacted sectors like textiles. It is plain common sense. The profit margins on textiles are low single digit percentage points. In the short-term, he may have struck inventory or just be hoping for abatement in tariffs, but it is simply impossible for an Indian exporter to compete with such a huge tariff disadvantage against Bangladesh. The Indian government itself realises it, which is why they are aggressively pursuing FTAs with other economies. It cannot simultaneously be true that a zero tariff agreement with Europe will be consequential and significantly higher tariffs than competitors with the US will be inconsequential. The behaviour of the financial markets reflects this, and so does the fact that most private sector and IMF/World Bank type forecasters have India GDP growing at a 6%+ handle in calendar year 2026 compared to the 7% and 8% handles in recent quarters.
January marks the start of the financial year for most American retailers and they will soon start placing large orders for the next holiday shopping season. I would say the next few months are crucial for the Indian exporters who have been hanging on.
In any case, you do seem to have finally acknowledged that the impact of US tariffs is not inconsequential, which was what I had reacted to, so, at least from my perspective, there seems to be no point arguing on this any further.
