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They all came out of eggs laid by Khamenei led IRI. Khomeini while being another Islamic zealot atleast had a nationalistic mind as he dealt with Israel and US. Khamenei sacrificed Iran in name of ideology of fighting Israel-US for Palestine.
You have the tendency to see things in the worst possible scenarios....you need to give some credence to iran's abilities also.... Remember during the 12 day war? Some were overly harsh when criticizing Iran's for not being able to hit israel.... I hope you saw those satellite pictures of that air base were unit 8200 was based. Leave some room for other plausible situations.They can but at the end of the day, it is the US that decides what to do and we have most recently seen this very clearly in the US tariffs against its allies.
The US is currently the only super power in the world, followed by China with a huge margin. The US cannot be pressured into changing its plan after they have been finalized. And it seems that the US administration has made up its mind about the war with Iran. So, in short, nobody can pressure the US into anything.
The Chinese may opt for the easiest option: Be patient, reach an agreement with the US not to intervene and receive oil contracts in the future. I cannot for the life of me imagine China willing to interfere in any positive way for Iran. Also, China has already filled their strategic oil reserves with cheap oil from Russia and Iran for years. They don't need to make an irrational move.
Good analysis...you're correctEven complete U.S. air dominance is not sufficient to destroy Iran's ability to block oil & gas transport in the Persian Gulf. It really doesn't take much to block ships from transitting. I actually predict that Iran's oil & gas facilities won't be hit in the first days of the conflict. The U.S. knows that will trigger Iranian action against the rest of the of oil & gas infrastructure in the region. I suppose that is Iran's "nuclear" option, if they are willing to use it.
And no, the U.S. does not have enough interceptors to prevent that from happening. Absolutely not. Too many defensive points across a vast area. They need to cover the entire Persian Gulf + sea-adjacent land in the Persian Gulf monarchies, northern Iraq, Israel, Jordan. They need to cover some areas in Yemen / Red Sea.
They also need to fly sorties over a mountainous country the size of western europe (3 times the size of Ukraine).
They need to take out MRBMs, SRBMs and their smaller launchers, take out the cruise missiles, take out the drones and other type of loitering munitions. This is in addition to destroying Iranian security / military C2, ballistic missile manufacturing & assembly facilities. They need to destroy nuclear facilities & targets associated with them.
Remember when Trump fired 80 tomahawk-cruise missiles on Syria in his first term? They struck that airport. Within a week, they had repaired the damage and it was up and running. Think of all of the munitions that Russia has fired on Ukraine, a country 1/3 the size of Iran. Yet most of Ukraine actually looks completely untouched by the war.
Let's not underestimate the amount of munitions that is needed to destroy large countries.
The worst possible scenario in my opinion is to get Tehran nuked by the US. Of course, it's a remote possibility that is highly unlikely, but not entirely impossible. Again, highly unlikely.You have the tendency to see things in the worst possible scenarios....you need to give some credence to iran's abilities also.... Remember during the 12 day war? Some were overly harsh when criticizing Iran's for not being able to hit israel.... I hope you saw those satellite pictures of that air base were unit 8200 was based. Leave some room for other plausible situations.
Trump and his cabinet pride themselves on being unpredictable and keeping the other side guessing and confused. At this point we know a US attack is coming and the "talks" are about an Iranian surrender, which the Iranians have rightfully refused.
The "deal" Trump is still talking about is probably a theatrical tit for tat that so far I think Iran is refusing to engage in.
All the big social media platforms are astroturfed and bot'd to the moon. Twitter is the worst of all because Musk removed any security or moderation from the platform and just let people loose, except criticism of him and his busineses. Social media has actually replaced the TV channel as the main propaganda arm.Well I downloaded twitter again after 1 year and worst mistake ever soo many lies and propaganda againist iran/islam and soo much Islamophobia type material and now my conclusion is we are dealing with the bottom of society the worst of the worst thats why I am now deleting the Twitter and getting all my news from here.
Khomeini said nationalism is worthless. One thing that is very strange is that Khomeini didn’t want to make enemies of the Americans. He was against the embassy takeover, worrying it will hurt US-Iranian relations. He wanted the hostages released, but changed his mind for some reason. That reason might be the million dollar question. Khamenei has been anti-US/Israel since day one.They all came out of eggs laid by Khamenei led IRI. Khomeini while being another Islamic zealot atleast had a nationalistic mind as he dealt with Israel and US. Khamenei sacrificed Iran in name of ideology of fighting Israel-US for Palestine.
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