Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[ToddE]

the problem is the time it would take to enrich to 90% then weaponise a good number of warheads. the enrichment alone will take months, and the west will be notified immediately due to NPT surveillance / spies.

By the time Trump is settled in Oval office, the 60% enriched content will be somewhere like 250 KG? I am not following IAEA news.

Roughly ~1000 IR-8 (20-24 SWU/year) can bring 250 KG of 60% enriched content to 165 KG WGU (90%) within 3-4 weeks. 165 KG WGU means an arsenal of ~30-40 0.5-5 KT devices. You get the idea, enough as a deterrent... FOR NOW. In next 2-3 years the arsenal should be 200+ devices if these people want to survive.

ultimately IRI is very conservative, and they have been publicly signalling they are now willing to enter talks with Trump directly (this was not the case last time) and they do not want to keep the JCPOA but make a new deal

What can you expect from the Anti-war dove of peace Khamenei and his purpose-selected reformist government?

 

[BigMela2onin]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

How can Iranian leadership be "deceived" so many times?

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Persian Gulf]

By the time Trump is settled in Oval office, the 60% enriched content will be somewhere like 250 KG? I am not following IAEA news.

Roughly ~1000 IR-8 (20-24 SWU/year) can bring 250 KG of 60% enriched content to 165 KG WGU (90%) within 3-4 weeks. 165 KG WGU means an arsenal of ~30-40 0.5-5 KT devices. You get the idea, enough as a deterrent... FOR NOW. In next 2-3 years the arsenal should be 200+ devices if these people want to survive.

current stockpile of 60% HEU is 180kg

projected capacity for production is soon expected to reach 40-50kg / month, but not clear if iran will be enriching to 60% at full capacity or not (we have to wait for next IAEA reports)

3-4 weeks is already a long time, and that is just the enrichment. we don't know how ready iran is for weaponisation and how far work on that field in 2003 went, and if that knowledge is retained.

as soon as iran starts enriching to 90% alarm bells will go off and Israel / West will make plans to pre-emptively strike before Iran can complete the enrichment let alone weaponisation. then we find out just how robust Fordow is to sustained bombing

judging by recent history, IRI is extremely slow in doing everything, 6 weeks since Israelf bombed Khojr, Parchin, Shahrud (with absolute precision), our EW OTH radars, killed 5 Iranians, and we did not respond yet (if we even will respond at all)

 

[ToddE]

I agree with a lot of this but not about Israel

Israel is a hegemonic and arrogant entity and they will not accept a nuclear Iran under any circumstances. their agents have been and are trying to balkanise / destroy iran. it is in our interest to weaken them, though I agree with the critiques of the methods used and costs incurred.

we need to think with a 100+ year view, not just 10-20 years. US global mafia is not going to leave so quickly. but building nukes is not an obvious answer either, even if we can attain nuclear warheads without a pre-emptive attack by the US / NATO / Israel (somewhat unlikely), this will not fix the underlying economic problems, but only make them worse

Truth be told, Israel has little interest in Iran, even their greater Israel maps do not include Iranian territory, its mostly levant Arab and KSA land which is ruled by their own installed puppets. Iran has no business in this intra-semite politics. I

In a way I am kinda glad that this harmless jolt IRI got in form of its levant theatre against US/Israel, has exposed the Hejab-Akhoonds and has put them in a position where they can no longer justify their incompetence in front of Iranian nation. They can either learn of this and fix themselves, improve economy, defence to the point that enemy fears + respect you or in time they will be thrown out by Iranians the same way Shah was kicked on his ass and thrown out.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Truth be told, Israel has little interest in Iran, even their greater Israel maps do not include Iranian territory, its mostly levant Arab and KSA land which is ruled by their own installed puppets. Iran has no business in this intra-semite politics. I

In a way I am kinda glad that this harmless jolt IRI got in form of its levant theatre against US/Israel, has exposed the Hejab-Akhoonds and has put them in a position where they can no longer justify their incompetence in front of Iranian nation. They can either learn of this and fix themselves, improve economy, defence to the point that enemy fears + respect you or in time they will be thrown out by Iranians the same way Shah was kicked on his ass and thrown out.

even in Shah times in the relations with Israel, they were exploiting and scamming Iran. they are a people of scammers and crooks and cannot be trusted.

and out of principle after the crimes they have committed against us, we can never be friends with this zionist regime. if they have a regime change, maybe.

 

[ToddE]

current stockpile of 60% HEU is 180kg

projected capacity for production is soon expected to reach 40-50kg / month, but not clear if iran will be enriching to 60% at full capacity or not (we have to wait for next IAEA reports)

3-4 weeks is already a long time, and that is just the enrichment. we don't know how ready iran is for weaponisation and how far work on that field in 2003 went, and if that knowledge is retained.

I was talking about February-March 2025 (Trump Settles in with his administration). By that time the 60% enriched content will 250+ KG.

The Parchin facility is known/accused of being a cold neutron gun test facility. If Israelis are right then in 1995-2003 Iran had 5 such devices. Safe to assume the capability only enhanced after that?

as soon as iran starts enriching to 90% alarm bells will go off and Israel / West will make plans to pre-emptively strike before Iran can complete the enrichment let alone weaponisation. then we find out just how robust Fordow is to sustained bombing

From pure unbiased POV, the ideal time for weaponization is NOW before AIPAC-Trump is in Oval Office. See we can only assume things, what is happening behind closed doors is not known to us. Why did not IRGC damage Israeli targets, why Israel refuse to target oil or nuclear facilities openly, why US refuse to be part of Israel's stunt on Iran, why Iran and Russia just packed their bags and left Syria ... Looks like some settlement is already in place.

judging by recent history, IRI is extremely slow in doing everything, 6 weeks since Israelf bombed Khojr, Parchin, Shahrud (with absolute precision), our EW OTH radars, killed 5 Iranians, and we did not respond yet (if we even will respond at all)

OTH radar's part was damaged, the radar continued working, I am sure its repaired by now, Iran has how many more of them ? The facilities are not decommissioned because roofs of some building came down. Thats like saying Ramon and nevatim bases are decommissioned because IRGC's MRBMs put craters there.

 

[PakAl]

From pure unbiased POV, the ideal time for weaponization is NOW before AIPAC-Trump is in Oval Office. See we can only assume things, what is happening behind closed doors is not known to us. Why did not IRGC damage Israeli targets, why Israel refuse to target oil or nuclear facilities openly, why US refuse to be part of Israel's stunt on Iran, why Iran and Russia just packed their bags and left Syria ... Looks like some settlement is already in place.

It's also possible Usa/Israel will not defeat Iran military but will slowly finish off Iranian influence in middleeast, Iran will then be isolated. Russia and China are far away. Iranian economic will also be targeted due to more isolation. After a decade or so Iran may collapse from inside. This may sound impossible at the moment but if Russia is finished and China is controlled then Iran will be left alone. Iranian ally Syria is finished, Hizbollah isolated, Iraq maybe pro Iran but has alot of usa influence.

Iran must only test the nukes if a military threat is coming from Nato.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I was talking about February-March 2025 (Trump Settles in with his administration). By that time the 60% enriched content will 250+ KG.

The Parchin facility is known/accused of being a cold neutron gun test facility. If Israelis are right then in 1995-2003 Iran had 5 such devices. Safe to assume the capability only enhanced after that?

Israel never claimed Iran had nuclear warheads, just tested initiators and had detailed plans for weaponisation to create 5 small warheads

From pure unbiased POV, the ideal time for weaponization is NOW before AIPAC-Trump is in Oval Office. See we can only assume things, what is happening behind closed doors is not known to us. Why did not IRGC damage Israeli targets, why Israel refuse to target oil or nuclear facilities openly, why US refuse to be part of Israel's stunt on Iran, why Iran and Russia just packed their bags and left Syria ... Looks like some settlement is already in place.

I agree there is a lot happening behind the scenes. but iran did not damage Israel targets because the missiles lack accuracy in a GNSS denied environment at > 1000km range

OTH radar's part was damaged, the radar continued working, I am sure its repaired by now, Iran has how many more of them ? The facilities are not decommissioned because roofs of some building came down. Thats like saying Ramon and nevatim bases are decommissioned because IRGC's MRBMs put craters there.

a few of them were hit, but likely not too hard to repair and put back in operation. I didn't claim they were decommissioned, just precisely hit

 

[Homajon]

That would be a nice and interesting theory if not for the fact that the US via the Emirates offered Assad sanctions relief and investments and reconstruction if he would just kick Iran out and close the supply routes into Lebanon. He declined, this was just a few weeks ago.

Aha , a fact! Who says thats a fact? An article?

 

[ToddE]

even in Shah times in the relations with Israel, they were exploiting and scamming Iran. they are a people of scammers and crooks and cannot be trusted.

And so are we .... Why do you think we have had giant empires of our own for 90% of our 3000 years old history? We may not be criminal-minded liars like Jews are but we are twisted in our own ways which is why we are still standing while others got colonized, their genetics, identities, and entirety is gone but ours is preserved.

and out of principle after the crimes they have committed against us, we can never be friends with this zionist regime. if they have a regime change, maybe.

I am not advocating friendship with Israel. I am just saying we have no business in intra-semite Jew-Arab problem. They for sure have committed crimes against Iran and thousands of them have been killed by Iranian proxies with Iranian weapons being used under Iranian supervision. Iranian military assets including personnel have been sitting on their borders for decades. Has it been useful to Iran?

 

[ToddE]

Israel never claimed Iran had nuclear warheads, just tested initiators and had detailed plans for weaponisation to create 5 small warheads

having neutron gun = HUGE CHUNK OF "Weaponisation". If 5 such systems were in place in 2003 then we safely can assume the numbers only increased in last 22 years?

I agree there is a lot happening behind the scenes. but iran did not damage Israel targets because the missiles lack accuracy in a GNSS denied environment at > 1000km range

or by choice? Strategic signaling of extreme capability and will without causing damage. Looking at craters it seems they did not even use max warheads. Israel technically did the same, demonstrated the capability but refused to climb up the escalation ladder which it could have by targetting Kharg, Fordow, or even Bushehr.

a few of them were hit, but likely not too hard to repair and put back in operation. I didn't claim they were decommissioned, just precisely hit

this proves my point. Israel chickened out of conflict with IRI. The same mad dog Israel that will butcher 50K Arabs for nothing.

Man we have no business with these levant Semites. Let them fight with eachother. Israel should use Turkey-Condom to eff Arabs and make 5 greater Israels for all I care.

 

[ToddE]

It's also possible Usa/Israel will not defeat Iran military but will slowly finish off Iranian influence in middleeast, Iran will then be isolated. Russia and China are far away. Iranian economic will also be targeted due to more isolation. After a decade or so Iran may collapse from inside. This may sound impossible at the moment but if Russia is finished and China is controlled then Iran will be left alone. Iranian ally Syria is finished, Hizbollah isolated, Iraq maybe pro Iran but has alot of usa influence.

Iran must only test the nukes if a military threat is coming from Nato.

Iranian security by no means is dependent upon Russia or China. It never has.

Reduction of Iranian influence in Levant means our quarrel with Jews over Arab security is over. Our dozens of Billions of USD, resources are saved. Jews can do as they please with puppet Arabs, Turkish while we can focus on our economy, our defence etc.

 

[ToddE]

Assad fell because he didn’t have an economy and had no chance of building one, even if he stayed in power another 50 years. He was destined to become another Venezuela or Cuba. A barely functioning failed state.

Iran will fall because it doesn’t have an economy, not because it didn’t have nukes or not enough missiles or fancy strategic weapons. That is the West goal, whether it takes 5 years or 50 years. West has all the time in the world.

If Iran gets nukes, the entire world will sanction it into oblivion like they did North Korea. Even Russia and China will support sanctions. What are you going to offer the West to get out from sanctions? Give up your nukes? lol

Iran is on a path to capitulation. Toman has gone from:

$1 USD = 1000 Toman in 2010
$1 =60,000 Toman at the start of 2024
$1 =72,000 Toman at the end of 2024

Do you understand the currency is collapsing? Do you guys think Iran is a reserve currency or something?

Either Iran accepts a deal or it will collapse from economic bankruptcy. US and Zionists can wait Iran out. No need for war. Iran can no longer use Syria, Hamas, and HZ to annoy them for a deal.

The world revolves around the Dollar/Euro not the worthless Toman.

And yet, a day ago you wanted Iran to go to a full-scale war with Israel+US+NATO just because a few universities in the US/EU had protests against Israel and we had "momentum".

Assad fell because his backers (Russia+Iran) cut a deal which we do not know yet. I am just guessing that it has something to do with Qatari+Saudi pipeline reaching EU through Turkey. Russia and iran let it happen this time against what ? we will know later. For Iran it's a blessing in disguise, its a chance to fix 4 decades old mistake of IRI of getting into intra-semite problem in Levant that we inherently have never been part of. Let Zionist Jews colonize Baathists+Islamists Arabs using massively debted Turkey as condom, we can save our billions of USD and focus on our own nation.

Iranian economy is tied to Iranian security. Because of the volatile zone we live in and the resources we have, we can not neglect security so nuclear weaponization is a must to keep the powerful enemies in check.

DPRK cant be compared to Iran, its a small resource-less peninsula with nothing to offer to the world. Only reason its issue is kept alive by US is to scare Japan and S.Korea enough so US can use their lands as bases against USSR/Russia and China. Iranian case is totally different, its a large nation opening into 3 important seas, with large deposits of resources, connecting important eurasian transit. Its no stupid despotic regime like DPRK either. Days of IRI, in its current form with peace dove Khamenei on top with sycophant power groups of IRGC, clergy, bazaris powering his rule, are numbered considering his age. Like I said before this jolt in levant + Khamenei gone will be a blessing in disguise for Iran.

 

[PakAl]

Iranian security by no means is dependent upon Russia or China. It never has.

Reduction of Iranian influence in Levant means our quarrel with Jews over Arab security is over. Our dozens of Billions of USD, resources are saved. Jews can do as they please with puppet Arabs, Turkish while we can focus on our economy, our defence etc.

You think Iran is inventing all these missile technologies, they are certainly buying from certain friendly nations. And in this world nations need to trade with many different nations to survive and improve economy. Iran needs to concentrate on improving relations with Neighbouring nations, China, Russia, ASEAN, Africa, Central Asia, BRICS, SCO, when GCC believe Iran has changed policies they may increase trade. However Usa/Israel will certainly plot to destroy Iran or remove current government.