Danger of US giving Saudis F35s: Golden opportunity for normalization slipping away? - analysis
The Trump administration might sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia without Riyadh agreeing to recognise Jerusalem, in a move that could shake up the Middle East.
A US Marine Corps F-35 takes off from the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Station airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, November 3, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/RICARDO ARDUENGO)By
YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 5, 2025 18:14Updated: NOVEMBER 6, 2025 10:01
Two data points could signal a geopolitical and security earthquake in the
Middle East.
The Pentagon has given a preliminary nod to
selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia, and the Trump administration may carry out this deal without conditioning it on normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem.
How are these two points issues, and why are they potential game-changers?
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Until now, only democracies have been sold the F-35.
Mostly the US, European countries, Japan, and South Korea.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman speaks with U.S. President Donald Trump on the day of the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 13, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)No country with even a hint of military hostility to Israel or any potential ally of Iran has been sold the aircraft.
When Turkey purchased
Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, the US kicked them out of the F-35 potential buyers program.
F-35 gave Israel a military edge
The F-35 is the world’s premier aircraft with stealth capabilities that can run circles around most countries’ air defenses.
Most importantly, it allows Israel to run circles around Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas’s air defenses.
It is the largest reason why the Jewish state succeeded at setting back the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program by two years and achieved another unprecedented achievement against the ayatollahs.
It is the tip of the spear for
Israel’s maintaining of its “qualitative advantage” over its adversaries, though they far outnumber the Jewish state’s population and surround Israel on several fronts.
The Saudis, in general, are much closer to the US and Europe than to Eastern countries.
They are also part of an unspoken and unofficial Middle East security alliance with Israel and other Sunni countries against Tehran.
But they have also flirted with alliances with Russia and China, and have signed deals with Iran, which, however unlikely, could also have led to alliances.
If Riyadh gets the F-35 and shares the technology with Russia, China, or Iran, Israel’s qualitative edge over Tehran could be compromised, and it could also face other issues with Beijing and Moscow, which currently have a deep respect for Israel’s military.
This came up in 2020 when the US almost sold the F-35 to the UAE at the height of the wave of the Abraham Accords.
At the time, it seemed like the Israeli political echelon was reluctantly not publicly objecting, but top defense officials were very concerned about the move and breathed a sigh of relief when it fell through due to a variety of other issues.
But one of the reasons that Israel was somewhat ready to swallow the UAE receiving the F-35 was that the UAE had crossed the Rubicon and normalized ties with Jerusalem.
In other words, Israel got a major strategic win, and so it was willing to keep its mouth shut about a potential strategic problem.
Further, the very fact that the UAE normalized relations with Israel in some ways made it less likely, though not impossible, that it would pass on the sensitive F-35 technology to Israeli adversaries.
Here, the Trump administration may finalize the sale to the Saudis without any commitment to normalization.
Israeli supporters would hope that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will find the perfect mix of negotiations in which his ending the war and giving Sunni Arab countries a major hand in Gaza will help get Trump to insist on Jerusalem-Riyadh normalization as part of the price for the F-35 deal, if such a deal happens.
This had always been the expectation before October 7.
But Netanyahu has become even more resistant to any concessions toward the Palestinians, even those in the West Bank not involved in the invasion, following the war, and the Saudis are as adamant as ever that they cannot normalize and be seen as deserting the Palestinians completely.
This is why, with no deal yet on how the Saudis, the UAE, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, former British prime minister Tony Blair, and others will eventually manage Gaza, and at the same time, with news of the Pentagon moving forward on an F-35 deal with the Saudis, Israeli defense observers would be very concerned.
The next steps on the F-35 issue and Saudi normalization will be pivotal.
Giving the F-35 to the Saudis could create serious risks to Israeli security in the future.
But giving the F-35 to Riyadh with Israel missing its chance at normalization, or at least losing the issue as leverage, would be far worse.
Israel could augment its qualitative military superiority for air-to-air battle by acquiring the US-made F-22 fighter jet, and it could try to get into the bidding for the F-47, which is due to start replacing the F-22 sometime in 2028.
There was a moment in 2020 when the US was considering selling the F-35 to the UAE, where it considered selling the F-22 to Israel as compensation, but the idea never advanced further.
This idea could be explored again if the Saudis do acquire the F-35, but it would still be a poor substitute for achieving normalization or for keeping Israel as the only Middle Eastern country with fifth-generation aircraft.
