Discussion: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran

A1Kaid said:
Iran most likely does not have nukes. With multiple assassinations against their key nuclear scientists they’ve faced setbacks. The recent deep strike in Tehran shows Iran has been infiltrated and Israel likely knows Iran doesn’t have nukes otherwise they wouldn’t have attacked so brazenly.

Just speculation on my part, however this makes the most sense given what we know.
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Just because a country has nuclear weapons does not prevent it from being attacked at all or an attack carried out within its soil.
 
Mr X said:
The problem is beyond firing the missiles

Most likely Israel will retaliate and it may start a war in the region. Iran is not fully ready to take both USA and Israel at the same time. The last thing Iran wants to see is 1000 missiles fired at Tehran in retaliation to another 300 fired by Iran.

It has to be a precise attack and the severity does not mean firing 300 missiles. They need to sit together and think about possible response which does not lead to war after the response is made.

It is easy to say “Fire” but the situation will be painful if in retaliation thousands of Iranian civilians are killed
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But the point is that alot of this ground work should have already been done stored for "all contingencies" ... That should be the natural action of any armed forces, to keep a target list upto date and possibilities of action/reaction - ie wargaming ...

Does seem like Iran does not as a matter of routine, "wargame" anything ?!
 
Ali_Baba said:
But the point is that alot of this ground work should have already been done stored for "all contingencies" ... That should be the natural action of any armed forces, to keep a target list upto date and possibilities of action/reaction - ie wargaming ...

Does seem like Iran does not as a matter of routine, "wargame" anything ?!
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We are speculating and it is probable that Iran has already factored this into account.

They wargame all the time and so it seems unlikely that they have not already pre-picked targets and weapons used for specific retaliatory scenarios.

What the difference here now is that both Hezbollah and Houthis also have a reason to punish the entity severely at this time as well.

Maybe Iran is currently co-ordinating with both Hezbollah and Houthis to combine their attacks for maximum effect.

I think we should wait before saying anything about Iran's readiness or willingness to hit back hard.
 
UKBengali said:
Just because a country has nuclear weapons does not prevent it from being attacked at all or an attack carried out within its soil.
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Correct. A nuclear weapon is less relevant in these situations.
 
I think no pre-empt strike by Israel they are going to allow Iran, hezbo and houthis to get their missiles off very likely causing some deaths and destruction in Israel giving Bibi the excuse to launch a massive strike on Iran, hezbo and houthis. He allowed hamas on Oct 7th to invade and kill over a thousand Israelis and the consequences of that is hamas is a shell of its former self with just about all its top leaders dead and tens of thousands dead. What do you think Bibi is going to do to Iran and hezbollah... hezbollah is pretty much leaderless right now.
 
SolarWarden said:
I think no pre-empt strike by Israel they are going to allow Iran, hezbo and houthis to get their missiles off very likely causing some deaths and destruction in Israel giving Bibi the excuse to launch a massive strike on Iran, hezbo and houthis. He allowed hamas on Oct 7th to invade and kill over a thousand Israelis and the consequences of that is hamas is a shell of its former self with just about all its top leaders dead and tens of thousands dead. What do you think Bibi is going to do to Iran and hezbollah... hezbollah is pretty much leaderless right now.
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Where do I start here?

Have you any idea how far away say Iran is and how large it is as well?

Gaza is next door and tiny, and had to rely on home-made weapons mainly.

Entity needed constant resupply from US just to fight in Gaza and even now Hamas is still putting up resistance.

Unlike Hamas, both Hezbollah and Iran have powerful conventional offensive capabilities and the tiny settler entity would literally be saturated with rockets, missiles and drones in any all-out war. It is so small that you need to zoom in on a map of the ME just to know it is there.

I think your post is more what you wish to happen rather than anything that may happen in reality.
 
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Without USA help Isra-hell is just a tiny dead rat.
Entity wants to put gun on USA's shoulder and fire at Iran..... And I believe entity will be successful in her mission. Only thing to wait is the result.
I hope entity is raised to ground before any serious harm comes to Iran.
 
MS Sandhu said:
Iran can then continue guerilla war against the US but think of millions of Iranian refugee influx into Pakistan and other neighboring countries : the utter disaster.
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I assure you Pakistan does not have to worry about Iranian refugees choosing to go to Pakistan.
 
MS Sandhu said:
From our POV

Iran should do just a symbolic operation to save her grace i.e fire some missiles in open desert or precisely hit some minor military target completely avoiding any serious casualty.



Any shit show gone out of hand can bring US in offensive mode and that will be the utter disaster not only for Iran but for this whole region.



Iran can then continue guerilla war against the US but think of millions of Iranian refugee influx into Pakistan and other neighboring countries : the utter disaster.
So do not be stupid to poke Iranians to go on full offensive mode.
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Oh bhai, Iran is still fighting hard, as best as they can. Do you know the situation in our country? Most overseas Pakistanis refuse to travel home now because of the collapse of our society and state institutions. You can’t go outside and walk around on the streets without the likelihood of being robbed.

When was the last time you went home?
 
I don't see any Iranian reply other than the symbolic reply like it did last time with drones. May be this time it's not drone but the level of damage to Israel won't be big enough to be of any serious concern for Israel.

If the reply Involve Hizb than that would be great strategic mistake.
 
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