Discussion: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran

[Garcia Sea]

Let's imagine a scenario where Iran and the Israel/US camp exchange 300 missiles each.
Iranian missiles fall on the vast wastelands of air force bases, not harming a single person.
Israeli and US missiles accurately hit hospitals and high-rise apartments, resulting in the mass killing of citizens.
The world media praises the Israel/US attacks as accurate, humane, rational, and based on international law.
This exchange is obviously unfair and disproportionate for Iran, and that is why the Iranian leadership hesitates to retaliate.
Ultimately, war is impossible without the firm will to target the enemy's civilians.
However, the Iranian leaders lack the courage to aim at the enemy's citizens.

 

[mangekyo]

Let's imagine a scenario where Iran and the Israel/US camp exchange 300 missiles each.
Iranian missiles fall on the vast wastelands of air force bases, not harming a single person.
Israeli and US missiles accurately hit hospitals and high-rise apartments, resulting in the mass killing of citizens.
The world media praises the Israel/US attacks as accurate, humane, rational, and based on international law.
This exchange is obviously unfair and disproportionate for Iran, and that is why the Iranian leadership hesitates to retaliate.
Ultimately, war is impossible without the firm will to target the enemy's civilians.
However, the Iranian leaders lack the courage to aim at the enemy's citizens.

That is fair. But then Iranian leaders should end its obsession with the destruction of the US and Israel. And focus more on economic growth, battling corruption and social injustice, averting the water crisis etc. Iran is blessed with a history and resources most countries couldn't even dream of, yet we are underperforming so much it should be a grave sin.

 

[AverageJoe]

Why? It's the most likely case. They have carried out similar assassination in Iran before.

Why are so many stories flying out there? Spike missile, drone, bombs, etc.. To me something fishy is going on.

Maybe Israel wants to make it look like Mossad terror operation than an Israeli military operation - not sure if that would makes difference in Iranian response though. I don’t understand it either - maybe they want to create fear and division within the IRGC and make them look more incompetent.

 

[maverick]

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wow

 

[Zweihander]

Iranian regime knows very well any direct attack on Israel causing considerable damage will lead to an all-out war with Israel and by extension with the US and the entire west. The end result will be the collapse of Iranian regime and complete and utter destruction of the country. Think what happened to Saddam and Iraq.

The dictum 'pick your enemy wisely' would have come in handy but the Ayotallahs of Iran want to see themselves as that cute little David capable of taking on all the Goliaths of the world - remember back in 80s, they used to call both US and USSR the Two Great Satans. This idealist and puritanical approach has left them with no friends on geopolitical stage today. They want to portray themselves as the regional powerhouse and have tried to lock horns in way too many arbitrary directions, inadvertently locking themselves in a hostile environment from all directions. End result today is that despite dragging their feet for over 20 years, they haven't been able to develop nuclear weapons, neither they can truly backup their facade of regional muscleman.

Their best bet at this yet another moment of international humiliation is to lick their wound, throw yet another bunch of their low-tech projectiles at some remote desert area in Israel, call it victory and go back to chanting death of Israel - as usual.

 

[SecularNationalist]

You meant Khamenei.

It doesnt mean a insider job from infiltration in the Iranian state.
It just mean it was done by someone in the ground in Tehran.

It's no the first time that Tehran is attacked from the ground. Remember June 2017 Tehran attacks.

When their supreme institutions like IRGC or officials responsible for guarding VIP officials are compromised means iran is compromised.

 

[MS Sandhu]

Do you understand the gravity of this situation from our pov?

From our POV

Iran should do just a symbolic operation to save her grace i.e fire some missiles in open desert or precisely hit some minor military target completely avoiding any serious casualty.



Any shit show gone out of hand can bring US in offensive mode and that will be the utter disaster not only for Iran but for this whole region.



Iran can then continue guerilla war against the US but think of millions of Iranian refugee influx into Pakistan and other neighboring countries : the utter disaster.
So do not be stupid to poke Iranians to go on full offensive mode.

 

[A1Kaid]

Iranian leadership seems to have a pattern of giving many verbal warnings through various channels. They should act fast and not give time advantage to enemies.

Also, all these speculations about how Haniyeh died take them with a grain of salt. The Iranian govt should be able to conduct a physical assessment and determine what was the most likely cause.

Note an attack this deep, this close, means even Iran’s most senior people are in danger. When a state is in this position it must rebuild deterrence and the only way to do that is to make Israel pay a heavy price.

The pattern of killing prominent Iranians and direct attacks, will not stop, Iran must act strongly. All those suggesting a symbolic strike are naive, doing so will only welcome more Israeli aggression.

 

[Olympus81]

Just had a wild thought.

Would be a good time for Iran to test its nukes (provided they have them).

Should go a long way in de escalating the situation.

 

[A1Kaid]

Just had a wild thought.

Would be a good time for Iran to test its nukes (provided they have them).

Should go a long way in de escalating the situation.

Iran most likely does not have nukes. With multiple assassinations against their key nuclear scientists they’ve faced setbacks. The recent deep strike in Tehran shows Iran has been infiltrated and Israel likely knows Iran doesn’t have nukes otherwise they wouldn’t have attacked so brazenly.

Just speculation on my part, however this makes the most sense given what we know.

 

[ARMalik]

1- 100% inside job to kill this Hamas leader.
2- Iran will NEVER attack Israel. It is pretty obvious why. Iran's Supreme Revolution leader Khomeni was living in Paris for amny years, and came from Paris in a flight to Tehran during the 1979 revolution. SO anyone with even a IQ of a baby would know that things are not what they seem on the surface.

 

[MH.Yang]

Iran's counterintelligence agencies are so incompetent.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Is it more viable for a bomb to be placed 2 months in advance without it being discovered than to have a team launch a drone or ATGM from several kms away from that building?

Yes it is. We've done a lot of equipment placement in known terrorist training camps. RAW usually places telecoms equipment and camers to keep 'profiles' on the people getting trained. If you can place a camera, I guess a bomb should not be that difficult.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Let's imagine a scenario where Iran and the Israel/US camp exchange 300 missiles each.
Iranian missiles fall on the vast wastelands of air force bases, not harming a single person.
Israeli and US missiles accurately hit hospitals and high-rise apartments, resulting in the mass killing of citizens.
The world media praises the Israel/US attacks as accurate, humane, rational, and based on international law.
This exchange is obviously unfair and disproportionate for Iran, and that is why the Iranian leadership hesitates to retaliate.
Ultimately, war is impossible without the firm will to target the enemy's civilians.
However, the Iranian leaders lack the courage to aim at the enemy's citizens.

It's not lack of courage.

Human Rights in Islam

Human Rights in Islam​

CHAPTER FOUR​

 

[Dariush-e Bozorg]

The problem is beyond firing the missiles

Most likely Israel will retaliate and it may start a war in the region. Iran is not fully ready to take both USA and Israel at the same time. The last thing Iran wants to see is 1000 missiles fired at Tehran in retaliation to another 300 fired by Iran.

It has to be a precise attack and the severity does not mean firing 300 missiles. They need to sit together and think about possible response which does not lead to war after the response is made.

It is easy to say “Fire” but the situation will be painful if in retaliation thousands of Iranian civilians are killed

If the establishment is scared of war then why have they taken an entire nation hostage for 4 decades blaring about fighting US and Israel ?

Either they going to fight face to face or they stand down and get smacked like they always do.