Discussion: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran

True Promise II can be renamed to Fake Promise II :ROFLMAO:

But it's not bad news, peace is always a good news.

Diplomacy (bribes) of GCC and Europe to Iran worked.
 
www.presstv.ir

General: People will hear good news about Irans revenge

A high-ranking commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has reiterated Iran’s resolve to avenge the blood of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
www.presstv.ir www.presstv.ir

I guess that guy has a different meaning of "good news" than me in the previous post :ROFLMAO:.

So they will do something for internal consumption, but without serious consequences.
 
(You're in the No Whiners and No Whino'd-doleh and No Hoagie Zone.)

Doing some research and keeping my ears to the ground, here are a few thoughts on the 'delay' on Iranian retaliation.

  1. There is great grievance across the ideological spectrum that the retaliation was not carried out immediately. It is seen as a mistake. I tend to agree.
  2. One rationale for the 'delay' is that Iran has seen its role as strategic supporter of the Axis of Resistance rather than getting engaged directly in the clashes each member is involved in. Irans sees itself as the platform provider. The 'cloud' provider'. As such, Iran's opponent is the US. To me this is reasonable. However, this assumes the opponent does not attack Iran directly. This also assumes Iran has processes in place to stop direct attacks on it. Obviously these have failed magnificently.
  3. Given the state and failures in '2', Iran is currently reorienting towards active involvement which takes time. This concerns me for various reasons. A: The greater strategy has been defeated and Iran is now in a reactive state. B: Iran will be directly involved in a tit-for-tat against a proxy state (Zionia) rather than the US itself which is a deep blow against Iran's stance historically. Note, the US too has tried to avoid this and has not been successful either. (Red Sea, PMU, Ansarullah, etc). C: This may be far more costly to Iran in fiscal terms. Note, however, in the dire and dark days of Syria's internal conflict it took a while for Iran to gear up, get directly involved, and push back. And that was done very successfully. And we knew very little about it until years later. Zionia's recent largest attacks on Syria might provide a glimpse of what's being planned. In this case Iran's 'supporter' role has taken its course. With active involvement Iran will take the conflict intensity to a whole new level. We'll see.
  4. There is still persistence across various groups that Iran will retaliate because it HAS to. I'm not sure what this means and, beyond that, what event or events is Iran retaliating to? The 'delay', however, is seen as costly to the opponent which is very true as well.
As for me, one thing that is consistently missing in all these discussions by the 'in the knows' is that there is very little if at all about how the security failures are being remedied. Nothing.
 
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The main reason for delay is Iran answering the phone to world leaders to "negotiate" (get money to do the retaliation between a terms).

Only a complete blind person wont see it.

They even boast about it.
 
BHAN85 said:
The main reason for delay is Iran answering the phone to world leaders to "negotiate" (get money to do the retaliation between a terms).

Only a complete blind person wont see it.

They even boast about it.
Click to expand...
Incorrect!
 
BHAN85 said:
The main reason for delay is Iran answering the phone to world leaders to "negotiate" (get money to do the retaliation between a terms).

Only a complete blind person wont see it.

They even boast about it.
Click to expand...
Lol. Come on dude don't be so purposely naive.

My guess is first days and couple of weeks after assassination they did want to retaliate, and retaliate with hezbollah, but to do that it takes time and as time went on and Iran saw US deploy fighters and naval assets they likely started to internally debate and when that happens you can pretty much count on delay after delay. Another reason for delay is US and Israel through backchannels told Iran what would happen to them if they over did it in their retaliation.

I personally still think Iran will in someway retaliate militarily problem is the more you delay the more people forget why you're retaliating against Israel making Iran look like the evil aggressor.
 
SolarWarden said:
Lol. Come on dude don't be so purposely naive.

My guess is first days and couple of weeks after assassination they did want to retaliate, and retaliate with hezbollah, but to do that it takes time and as time went on and Iran saw US deploy fighters and naval assets they likely started to internally debate and when that happens you can pretty much count on delay after delay. Another reason for delay is US and Israel through backchannels told Iran what would happen to them if they over did it in their retaliation.

I personally still think Iran will in someway retaliate militarily problem is the more you delay the more people forget why you're retaliating against Israel making Iran look like the evil aggressor.
Click to expand...
Correct!
 
SolarWarden said:
Lol. Come on dude don't be so purposely naive.

My guess is first days and couple of weeks after assassination they did want to retaliate, and retaliate with hezbollah, but to do that it takes time and as time went on and Iran saw US deploy fighters and naval assets they likely started to internally debate and when that happens you can pretty much count on delay after delay. Another reason for delay is US and Israel through backchannels told Iran what would happen to them if they over did it in their retaliation.

I personally still think Iran will in someway retaliate militarily problem is the more you delay the more people forget why you're retaliating against Israel making Iran look like the evil aggressor.
Click to expand...

Give time to enemy to organize themselves against you is a good thing for you, ok. :ROFLMAO:

If they want only to punish, and show deterrence, they would have executed previous planned attack the next day of Haniyeh assasination.

But they dont want only that.

They want to do blackmail to West and GCC, get money for do the attack inside some terms. They said the first days "we dont mind if we provoke a war in the Persian gulf". That's called Blackmail (against GCC and against countries who depend from GCC oil).

Iran is used to do blackmails to the West since Iran Deal 2015.

It's ok, I understand them, I'd do the same if I were them. :ROFLMAO:

States and people are very hypocrites when things related to money happen. Nobody says "we want money", instead they say all kind of euphemisms like "we want peace", "we want justice" and so on.

Yemen is doing the same, they use Gaza war to do blackmail to ships who sail near to their coasts.

It's ok, I'd do the same too. But we must not fall under the world of lies they say to justify themselves, and we must see things clearly like really is.

It's a lot of blackmail and it's a little deterrence, it's not justice.
 
SolarWarden said:
Every time he threatens....
View attachment 64541
Click to expand...
Iran threatening retaliation against Israel it reminds me Israel threatening Hezbollah and whole Lebanon with ground invasion.

Israel repeated that threat since months ago, and it had real effects like a lot of countries evacuating diplomatic missions.

Why they warn the enemy for weeks/months instead attack directly by surprise?

I think because those threats are useful.

e.g: Israel threatening with a full war against whole Lebanon it can be useful to blackmail Lebanon non-Hezbollah leaders to cooperate with Israel giving information about Hezbollah to Israel.

And Iran threatening, it's means a lot of calls from Western leaders, and only God knows what kind of things they give to Iran to calm down them.
 
Looks like hezbollah has recently increased the frequency/magnitude of attacks and using more lethal weapons? I wonder if this is part of Irans response to Israel and Iran's response will come through proxies only and not from Iran itself?
 
Well looks like that is that

-The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and the remaining Surface Ships of Carrier Strike Group 9 have transited to the Pacific from the Indian Ocean after operating off the Coast of Iran in the Arabian Sea since July; with U.S. Defense Officials stating that the Threat of an Iranian Attack against Israel has now Drastically Decreased, though the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and other U.S. Navy Assets will remain in the Region to continue providing Deterrence. Following her Departure from U.S. Central Command’s Area-of-Responsibility, the Roosevelt will now spend the last few weeks of her Deployment, lasting over Nine Months, returning to Naval Base San Diego in California.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1834750202399367326

Doesn't look like Iran will be doing any retaliation this year... unless Isarel does something to drastically to escalate.
 
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