Well at present all it is are rumors. CM Balochistan took back his earlier statement, the timing of his statement was ill thought considering everything. I wrote this a while back on the original website:
Once the green light is given from there you will see some more concrete actions on the ground. China has already mentioned CPEC+Afghanistan and Central Asia.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/china-pakistan-and-the-taliban-cpec-in-afghanistan/
China and Chinese investors have seen the potential from Gwadar developments, lots of money flowing in from Singapore, UAE and of course China to this tiny strip of Land.
Further reading:
https://www.business-standard.com/a...ng-47-000-jobs-in-7-years-119100900292_1.html
You only need to visit the Gwadar Business Center to see the amount of money pouring into the region, China is NOT stupid and it never makes stupid deals. China has set her aims on the more than $1 trillion USD worth of mineral wealth in Afghanistan, particularly Cobalt which :
Baghlan and the surrounding mountains have the untapped potential for Uranium mining:
https://nps.edu/documents/105988371...ment.pdf/c78f7b1a-893e-48dc-aae9-ac325aafd446
China is uniquely positioned to effectively take over the stalled national railroad project of Afghanistan:
China can just use the Nigeria Model to achieve this:
China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), a subsidiary of China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), has signed a contract with Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Transportation for the development of Nigerian Eastern Railway.
www.railway-technology.com
So what is in this for Afghanistan?
Well money of course, the Taliban government is cash strapped and starved of friends, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Türkiye have all adopted a hands-off approach regarding development in Afghanistan.
For now, the illicit wealth and reserves are propping up the regime in Kabul but this wont be sustainable and if the Taliban's little pet project is to work, they need faloos.
Even Malaysian investors who had planned on developing a cellular infrastructure in Afghanistan pulled out owing to fears the Taliban can't manage the country.
Talib's are desperate to show that they can run the country and can establish a working, functioning government that can stand on the world stage, but for this they need partners, and they need CASH/Faloos/Dollas!
China can provide BOTH, the people of Afghanistan see the Taliban as heroes and all live happily ever after...
What is in it for Af-Pak relations?
Well believe it or not my analysis is all the TTP drama is Afghanistan's way of coming into the negotiating table from a position of strength, the TTP being the stick to the Chinese cash being the carrot. For Pakistan's cooperation of transit rights among other things the Chinese will get Kabul to call of their "dogs/TTP".
Pakistan has also developed its only counter policy to this which is to flood Afghanistan with returnees ahead of any future negotiations. Tit-for-Tat if you will. You will see in the coming weeks and months a narrative built in the press and SM about Afghanistan declaring proxy war with Pakistan, this was on the horizon much sabre rattling may ensue with the odd firework here or there.
IEA, TTP and its off-shoots are one and the same animal:
Hamid Khurasani commander Afghan Taliban is on record stating
"May Allah grant our brethren who are engaged in combat under Mehsud (Noor Wali Mehsud) and others (opposing the Pakistani establishment) the opportunity to hoist the banner of the Islamic Emirate in Islamabad one day."
The TTA were useful for us in Afghanistan, we didn't have a long term strategy for when the US would leave despite all that talk of "strategic depth" due to certain vested interests... TTA IAE got greedy after their wrestled control of Afghanistan and started to "cut" Pakistan out of lucrative projects such as management of HKIA offering management to Bahrain, then Oman and then Türkiye.. All said NO.
Then there was the issue of controlling cross border infiltration in exchange for a prisoner swap, Pakistan got outmaneuvered there too, again due to vested interests and incompetence. We trash canned our most useful intel asset who understand how things worked in Afghanistan during the domestic political drama inside Pakistan. The US played a masterstroke in IMF conditions blockading Pakistan from officially recognizing the Taliban regime as a legitimate government, this angered Kabul, the schism grew wider.
Before 2021 we could pick up the phone and dial 1-800-Hiqqani, that is no longer an option, the TTA/IEA see themselves as a legitimate government and see Islamabad as a hindrance, the only saving grace for Pakistan is the fact we have CEPC, Afghanistan needs money, it needs trade, it needs to be seen as a functioning nation with a working government and some semblance of an economy.
China can provide this via CPEC+Afghanistan and the railroad project in exchange for mineral rights and ownership of the rail network management rights similar to Nigerian deal.
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*I did an opinion piece after the evacuation in which I mentioned 8 recommendations for Islamabad and added the caveat
"Pakistan was blindsided in 2001, we must not allow this power vacuum and our complacency to repeat history again." - (2023 and it seems our leadership cannot capitalize on an opportunity but also fail to learn from history!)
The original recommendations:
1. Pakistan must immediately build a counter-narrative online, this should be supported by the diaspora and intellectuals of Pakistan to highlight the positive role of Pakistan and expose the hostile and nefarious role of enemy states and non-state actors mentored, funded and cradled by external supporters.
2. Pakistan has supported the WHO and WFP to create a air-bridge in Mazar-i-Sharif as we saw the first PIA flight made it's maiden trip earlier today
3. Pakistan must work with the UNHCR and EU nations to support the processing, re-settlement and relocation of Afghan refugees, there must be a clear and visible timeline along with financial recompense for the hosting of these large number of temporarily stateless people.
4. Pakistan must utilize it's close relationship with the regime in Kabul and it's regional friends such as China, Uzbekistan, Turkey and Tajikistan to ensure that the humanitarian terrain and physical security of GLOC's and ALOC's is maintained and assurances beyond "warm-words" from the Taliban leadership.
5. Pakistan can work to filling the void of highly skilled professionals due to recent human-capital flight from the country in Afghanistan to provide technical support to hydro/power and infrastructure projects in the country.
Ultimately, as the West withdraws and some hawks within the West seek to capitalize on the insecurity and instability in the country to play out their wet-dreams of the "forever war" as an act of the desperate old man, belching on his own hubris. Pakistan must safeguard it's own economic and security interests, as the saying goes "this world is built for hawks, not doves, if you are a dover, you will forever be plucked by the sweeping hawk".
The terrorism in Afghanistan is purely IS-K supported by affiliated warlords warring for power. IS-K is a persistent threat to the regime in Kabul.
ISIS has its own objectives in Afghanistan, and just because ISIS carried out attacks in Afghanistan doesn't mean it has not set its sights on Pakistan.
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Most analysts and independent sources seem in agreement that since the August 15th 2021 (when the Taliban took over Kabul), Afghanistan has been, once again, becoming a fertile ground for local and transnational terrorist groups. A United Nations report on terrorism early February 2022 validated that argument when it said:
“There are no recent signs that the Taliban have taken steps to limit the activities of foreign terrorist fighters in the country.
On the contrary, terrorist groups enjoy greater freedom there than at any time in recent history. ”Another report released by the UN in July 2022 noted that while the situation in Afghanistan remained complex, international terrorist organizations based there view the victory of the Taliban as a motivating factor for disseminating their propaganda in the neighbouring regions of Central and South Asia, and globally.
Earlier, towards end of May 2022, annual report of the UNSC-led 1988 Taliban sanctions committee monitoring team said, “
the group [TTP] is focused on a long-term campaign against the Pakistani state," and that it “has arguably benefitted the most of all the foreign extremist groups in Afghanistan from the [Afghan] Taliban takeover.”
Similarly, most analysts also appear unconvinced that the Taliban will or could fulfil their promises on foreign militant groups such as Al-Qaeda, Islamic State Movement of Uzbekistan, ETIM or TIP, and TTP, etc.; the Taliban have so far only acted against Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K).
It was not hard to foresee the dreadful fallout for Pakistan of the ill-fated fall of Kabul last August. In one year, since the Taliban took power in Kabul, there had reportedly happened 250 terrorist attacks in Pakistan which represented an over 51 percent increase from the previous year as per PIPS report in 2022.
The data and statistics provided in the report indicated that since the Taliban takeover of Kabul last year there has been significant increase in the number of terrorist attacks and consequent killings in the two key conflict and militancy-prone areas of Pakistan, i.e., Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The incidence of such attacks in Punjab, Islamabad and Sindh has however declined, though only slightly.
Pakistan is concerned about the Taliban not being willing or able to help in countering the TTP threat. However, apparently Pakistan's counterterrorism cooperation with the US is growing. The US State Department has recently said that the United States was committed to employing it all counterterrorism tools to counter the threat posed by terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan.
See: https://nypost.com/2023/04/23/us-ta...ht-against-afghanistan-isis-affiliate-report/
The announcement also identified
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and the TTP as the two groups that were using the Afghan soil for spreading terror in the region. It identified the TTP deputy
emir Qari Amjad, or
Mufti Hazrat Deroji, one of the four leaders added to the US list of designated terrorists, as the man who oversees TTP’s operations and militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. His 15-year campaign of violence against Pakistan has stepped up since the Taliban seized control in Afghanistan last year, the State Department noted. The three AQIS leaders added to the list included the group's emir Osama Mehmood, Atif Yahya Ghouri, the deputy emir of AQIS, and Mohammad Maruf who is responsible for AQIS’ recruiting branch.
As per the US report itself "The TTP is becoming a major irritant in Pakistan's relations with the Taliban government, which many in the beginning saw as a "friendly" regime in Afghanistan."
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On October 1st, 2022, the CTD in Karachi killed two IS-K militants in Karachi’s Mullah Essa Brohi Goth and recovered arms and ammunition from their possession. The CTD in its press release said that the two militants, who recently joined ISKP after abandoning TTP, were wanted in some terrorism cases in Balochistan province.
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You will see that IS-K has a much smaller footprint in Pakistan compared to Afghanistan:
Much to complex an issue:
Pakistan needs parliament-led revived national policy on Afghanistan which goes into the public domain for some discourse on it. Pakistan’s present policy lacks key ingredients to protect the country from possible fallout of the emerging Afghan situation which seems susceptible to an increased risk of conflict and violence or crisis.
One key aspect of the required paradigm shift in Pakistan’s Afghan policy shall entail winning hearts and minds of the people of Afghanistan including through enhanced outreach to sections of Afghan society as well as provision and facilitation of humanitarian aid and assistance.
Sources:
United Nations Security Council’s twenty-ninth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, February 3, 2022,
https://undocs.org/Home/Mobile?FinalSymbol=S/2022/83&Language=E&DeviceType=Desktop&LangRequested=False4 The report was released around mid-July 2022 and can be downloaded here:
https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2075689/N2239429.pdf
Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Prospects of success in ongoing talks with TTP ‘bleak’,” Dawn, May 29, 2022,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1692031/prospects-of-success-in-ongoing-talks-with-ttp-bleak
Data and statistics have been derived from Pak Institute for Peace Studies' digital database on security incidents.
Ahmed Ali, "Fallout of Afghan situation and Pakistan’s policy responses," PIPS, September 9, 2022,
https://www.pakpips.com/article/70398 Anwar Iqbal, "US designated four TTP, AQIS leaders as global terrorists," Dawn, December 3, 2022.
