Jonathan Pollard: Egypt’s new threat to Israel’s air dominance
Egypt's acquisition of a Chinese-manufactured J-10 “Dragon” fighter equipped with PL-15 beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missiles constitutes an extremely troubling development. Op-ed.

As reported in the media, Egypt has recently signed an agreement to purchase the Chinese-manufactured J-10 “Dragon” fighter. Although Egypt’s acquisition of this 4th generation fighter will not, in and of itself, pose a serious threat to Israel’s aerial superiority, Beijing’s decision to equip the Egyptian J-10s with its PL-15 beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missile does constitute an extremely troubling development. Making things worse, there are unconfirmed reports that China has agreed to let Egypt manufacture the PL-15, which would allow the Egyptian Air Force to equip many of its other fighters with the long-range missile.
At the present time, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) employs the Derby BVR air-to-air missile with a range of approximately 50km and the US-supplied Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) that has an estimated range of around 64km. The PL-15, in contrast, has an engagement range of between 200-300km. What this means is that our fighters will be at a serious disadvantage when going up against Egyptian warplanes armed with the PL-15. The following represents two scenarios that demonstrate what this type of engagement disparity could mean if a war were to erupt between Egypt and Israel.
Given the fact that Egypt has illegally built forward airbases in Sinai, PL-15-equipped Egyptian fighters operating from these facilities could theoretically engage Israeli fighters taking off from the Ramon Airbase the minute they’re airborne.
The PL-15 would also grant Egyptian fighters the ability to push our Airborne Warning and Control aircraft far away from our frontier with Egypt, thereby denying our fighters a clear understanding of exactly where enemy fighters are located. Lastly, assuming PL-15-equipped Egyptian fighters provided cover for a strike coming in from the sea targeting our strategic infrastructure sites, the Egyptians just might be able to successfully drop gravity bombs or launch cruise missiles against our coastal power stations. Obviously, knocking even one of them out could inflict incalculable harm on our state.
So, what could we do to neutralize the PL-15?
One simple solution would involve asking the US if we could purchase their new AIM-174B air-to-air missile. This missile, which is an air-launched version of the US Navy’s SM-6 ship-launched anti-aircraft missile, has an extraordinary range of 400km. This would clearly put even a PL-15-equipped Egyptian fighter at a distinct disadvantage in an aerial engagement. We could also ask the Americans if we could co-produce under license the AIM-174B, thereby allowing us both to provide the US with an increased production rate of AIM-174Bs, while at the same time providing us with the ability to quickly equip all our F-16s and F-15s with the missile. We might even be able to construct a missile-equipped drone that would accompany our fighters into combat, providing them with the ability to launch saturation attacks against opposing Egyptian fighters.
Above all else, what we have to appreciate is that the Egyptians are definitely planning to go to war with us. The J-10/PL-15 combination is one more example of just how serious they are about this intention. However, assuming we could obtain America’s AIM-174B air-to-air missile, we would be in a position to effectively stymie Egypt’s effort to neutralize our aerial advantage. This could allow us to launch a preventive strike against the Egyptian Air Force, thereby recreating the situation that guaranteed our victory in 1967.
Egypt's acquisition of a Chinese-manufactured J-10 “Dragon” fighter equipped with PL-15 beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missiles constitutes an extremely troubling development. Op-ed.
www.israelnationalnews.com
No smoke without fire
The subject of denying the delivery of the aircraft does not mean that there are no deals, on the contrary, the Chinese side confirmed that there are some deals from the Egyptian state, and even the visit of the Air Force Commander to China was not for a protocol visit, and China's interest in displaying its fighters in Egypt with the Y-20 aircraft was not a picnic
It is usual in international exhibitions for countries to participate after there are nearly serious negotiations on the purchase, whether aircraft or missiles. The negotiations have been going on for years, and everyone saw the words of the head of the Chinese delegation at the El Alamein Air Show
The Egyptian TV channels that talked about the aircraft are considered something official. There can be no talk in the military field without the approval of the censorship
In any case, Egypt benefits from even the Chinese offers for many reasons.
The Russians fear losing the Egyptian fighter market and have started offering better offers for their fighters and equipment
The American side is trying to attract Egypt
Egypt also has a project to rehabilitate the engines and extend the life of the F-16 fighter structures for 8000-12000 flight hours ending in 2026, so even the contract timings are ideal, as Egypt has secured for itself the guarantee of the aircraft's operation until the end of its technical life and flight hours without any American obstruction or under any American pressure, so Egypt has benefited from the F-16 fleet to the maximum extent possible.
The Indian side is also working to market its military relationship with Egypt and transfer technology, and it is interested in not monopolizing the Egyptian arms market by a country like China.
Regarding the Chinese themselves, Egypt knows how to attract the state to achieve Egyptian demands. We have previously explained that the Chinese side has doubled the size of its investments in Egypt, whether in the Suez Canal Economic Zone or the New Alamein Industrial Zone.
There are new surprises. China is developing the Taba seaport in Sinai and is building a logistics zone with investments of one billion dollars in addition to the previous investments. Will these investments be with protection and insurance guarantees, especially since they represent an economic blow to the port of Eilat? The Israeli and the link between the port of Eilat and the port of Arish also represents a blow to several parties that are trying to obstruct the Chinese Silk Road project by linking the port of Taba and the port of Sharm El-Sheikh to the port of Arish represents a blow to the alliance of the American-Israeli-Indian project in the corridor that would have run from the Emirates to Israel via Saudi Arabia and Jordan by providing Egypt with railway corridors, roads and linking ports at a cost even less than the cost of ships passing through the Egyptian Suez Canal. The Egyptian-Chinese agreement and its provisions against the American plans against the Belt and Road Initiative with Egypt make meeting Egyptian military demands an important matter for China itself, in addition to the fact that Egypt was getting the best from China in the seventies, such as HQ-6 bombers. Egypt did not buy any Chinese fighters in recent years because China did not have fighters at the required level, not because of a ban. We come to the points that China will not neglect to transfer technology to Egypt. Egypt manages the arms trade with China to a greater extent than some naive people imagine. For example, Egypt created African alliances with Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan. These countries want to revive their air forces, so a light fighter such as the J-10C for Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan via Egypt makes the deals more tempting to implement, especially since Egypt accepts payment from these countries in gold and diamonds instead of dollars.
Countries such as South Korea, when they found themselves losing a deal for their training aircraft to Egypt, improved their offers and presented better material and technical offers. At the EDEX-2023 exhibition, we complained about the American Phantom Strike radar, which was limited in performance and capabilities, and this was one of the reasons for obstructing the contract. Korea presented a better solution, all of this because of the spread of information about an Egyptian-Chinese deal.
The deal itself is considered a means of deterrence to Israel, and it also has an impact on France's commitment to receive Rafale fighters and Meteor missiles at the required times.
There are technical reasons for Egypt's preference for the PL-15 missile, which is required to be modified to become more effective, which makes things not as some imagine, the demands of amateurs or even that we are speaking as a kind of bragging, so we will not benefit from a percentage One, whether Egypt contracts or not, and China is not the only supplier. The Russians still have the desire to export their fighters to Egypt and not lose the Egyptian market for fighters.