Gaza-Israel Conflict | 2023-2024

Falcon29 said:
They control the USA. USA is likely already aware of their operational plans for Lebanon and also likely have green light and approval. You cannot 'drag' a country into a war that does everything you want and provides cover for you.

Hezbollah made a strategic miscalculation. You should never think developments in other places won't affect you. They and Hamas are looked at as the two primary well trained/armed paramilitary groups that pose a immediate threat to Israel. They both rely on each other for survival. A war on Lebanon would affect Gaza too, I'm talking before October 7. Gaza would get involved and support Lebanese front with all its might. Hezbollah made miscalculation of not going in with more force to disrupt Israeli operations on Gaza. If they had, much of Hamas and Gaza would still be intact, and they would be able to regroup and disrupt Israel's war agenda all together. Instead they just let Hamas absorb all the pressure, genocidal bombardment campaign for 9 months. Live coup attempts while being under bombardment, where Israel worked with a few traitor tribes to arm them to take over parts of Gaza. And where they tried sneaking in Fatah traitor members to take over Gaza.

Now they are facing consequences after Israel is close to done with Gaza. Gaza has been annihilated. It's a tragedy. Lebanon is now going to be isolated unless someone steps in on their behalf. Or unless Hezbollah agrees to Israeli conditions and makes a ceasefire. Netanyahu will not rush. But they did say they would start assassinating Hezbollah commanders more frequently. And it doesn't appear Hezbollah is taking proper cautionary measures. And Hezbollah also still does not enforce any red line. Israeli's are fine if 80 rockets are fired near Galilee and Safad.

You will say well if Hezbollah retailed in a fierce way, it will lead Israel to start bombing Lebanon harder. Yes it will. And that's what you want. Show them you're up for a battle. Reinforce red lines and establish deterrence. Israelis will not do any war longer than a month or two on Lebanon. They don't want. Their people can't handle it. They only invaded Gaza out of bloodlust and vengeance, and because they got international cover to do carpet bombing so Gaza stopped posing any threat to Israel and important regions in Israel after two months or so. Hezbollah is not in that situation and won't be. Israeli home front won't bear two months of attacks.
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If you say Hamas and Hezbollah are so mutually reliant and need to work together, some blame has to go to Hamas for launching a unilateral attack without Hezbollah's knowledge.
 
UKBengali said:
I agree as the entity has been testing the limits and continuing as there is no consequences of its genocide.

Hezbollah should have given the Zionist terrorists an ultimatum back in October and said we will go to full scale war if you do not stop the attacks on Gaza.

Yes it would have meant that Lebanese do not not all agree but would have saved Gaza from destruction and meant the entity risks everything or backs down as more likely.

Hamas + Hezbollah combined would have been too much for the Zionist dogs to take on simultaneously.
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Ultimatum would be risky and hard to deliver on. Israel has way more backing. And biggest military in the region. A gradual escalation over period of days/weeks/months. Around time of Israeli ground invasion into northern Gaza especially. Would have made it awkward for Israel.
 
Persian Gulf said:
If you say Hamas and Hezbollah are so mutually reliant and need to work together, some blame has to go to Hamas for launching a unilateral attack without Hezbollah's knowledge.
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Most people within Hamas didn't know. Hamas won't inform anyone as it is playing catalyst role. Others can't play that role. For example, Hezbollah launching such a large scale attack would be a political suicide for them when it comes to internal Lebanese affairs. Hamas on other hand governs Gaza, and made veiled warnings about the operation, if it the siege on Gaza continued. And people of Gaza were demanding something be done about the economic situation.

Still, they rely heavily on each other. Syria and Iraq aren't replacements for for Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah and Hamas have similar upbringing. Both grew out of Israeli occupation. Both have similar form of government. Both exist as populist Islamic resistance movements. If one goes down, it is bad for the other, in the long term. Hamas also provides inroads for Hezbollah into Arab society and media. And opens relationships for it.

Hezbollah cannot rely on Syria for its future. Hezbollah had to intervene in Syria as it was considered a existential threat to Hezbollah and Lebanon. But they do not love the government there. There is bad blood between them and Syria in the past when Syria used to intervene in Lebanese affairs. And Iraqis don't seem all that effective nor organized. Factions there appear more business/lifestyle oriented. Ultimately, it is important to Hezbollah that Gaza and Hamas survive. That does not mean they will take a path to attempt intervening with a war. But it means if one or the other is lost, it's going to have direct consequences on the other, in the future term.
 
Falcon29 said:
Most people within Hamas didn't know. Hamas won't inform anyone as it is playing catalyst role. Others can't play that role. For example, Hezbollah launching such a large scale attack would be a political suicide for them when it comes to internal Lebanese affairs. Hamas on other hand governs Gaza, and made veiled warnings about the operation, if it the siege on Gaza continued. And people of Gaza were demanding something be done about the economic situation.

Still, they rely heavily on each other. Syria and Iraq aren't replacements for for Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah and Hamas have similar upbringing. Both grew out of Israeli occupation. Both have similar form of government. Both exist as populist Islamic resistance movements. If one goes down, it is bad for the other, in the long term. Hamas also provides inroads for Hezbollah into Arab society and media. And opens relationships for it.

Hezbollah cannot rely on Syria for its future. Hezbollah had to intervene in Syria as it was considered a existential threat to Hezbollah and Lebanon. But they do not love the government there. There is bad blood between them and Syria in the past when Syria used to intervene in Lebanese affairs. And Iraqis don't seem all that effective nor organized. Factions there appear more business/lifestyle oriented. Ultimately, it is important to Hezbollah that Gaza and Hamas survive. That does not mean they will take a path to attempt intervening with a war. But it means if one or the other is lost, it's going to have direct consequences on the other, in the future term.
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Usually Lebanese Maronites dislike Syria, not pro-Resistance/Hezbollah Lebanese.

Hezbollah and Hamas can support each other but you were criticising Hezbollah for effectively not going to war with Israel on Hamas' terms. We have been over this many times but you can't expect Hezbollah to launch a war on Israel on Hamas' terms. If they did that then Beirut would be rubble today.
 

Reports of an unusual explosion in Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan​

Residents who live near the place of the explosion say that objects were shattered in their houses as a result of the blast.​

Israeli media reported a loud explosion on Ben Yehuda Street on the corner of Shalom Aleichem in Tel Aviv.

Police, fire, and rescue services were deployed to the area and told Israeli media that there was no fire. The source of the explosion is not yet known.

Residents who live near the place of the explosion say that objects were shattered in their houses as a result of the blast.

The Home Front Command stated: "No aerial intrusion into the country's central area was detected, and therefore no alarm was triggered - the incident is under investigation."
 
Persian Gulf said:
Usually Lebanese Maronites dislike Syria, not pro-Resistance/Hezbollah Lebanese.

Hezbollah and Hamas can support each other but you were criticising Hezbollah for effectively not going to war with Israel on Hamas' terms. We have been over this many times but you can't expect Hezbollah to launch a war on Israel on Hamas' terms. If they did that then Beirut would be rubble today.
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I do not expect them to go into a full blown war in the way the war in Gaza was. And it's not really about my expectations. It's the reality of what's happening in Gaza which is a existential war for Palestinians and not a normal kind of war.
 
On balance, this seems too escalatory to be from Hezbollah. Attacking Tel Aviv like this is opening Beirut up to massive attacks. Yemen is a strong possibility. But still unclear.
 
Persian Gulf said:
BREAKING: DRONE STRIKE IN TEL AVIV, DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES REPORTED AMID MASS PANIC
Hezbollah will not enforce redlines? @Falcon29

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814100658083262658

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814098811393855539

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814099554439974946
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I hope it's true. Some reports of a car bomb. There were two explosions. If it was drones it likely came from the sea either from direction of Lebanon or Gaza. Let's follow the details and see.

Israeli army seems to be denying reports about a UAV and say it's a car bomb. Could also be Palestinians from West Bank.

If it is Hezbollah than it's gonna help their deterrence equation.
 
The SC said:
By an overwhelming majority, the Knesset approved a law proposal to oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, and in the text of the proposal: “The Knesset strongly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel, which will constitute an existential threat to the entity of Israel and its citizens, and will lead to the perpetuation of the conflict and destabilization of the region, and it will only take time.” "Shortly until Hamas takes over the state and turns it into an extremist Islamic terrorist base."

View attachment 55662
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This proves that Gaza Palestinians WERE RIGHT to fight Israel for their freedom, no ifs, ands or butts about that after Israel's knesset passed this law- its also an admission that Israel has been preventing the emergence of a Palestinian state.
 
Falcon29 said:
I hope it's true. Some reports of a car bomb. There were two explosions. If it was drones it likely came from the sea either from direction of Lebanon or Gaza. Let's follow the details and see.

Israeli army seems to be denying reports about a UAV and say it's a car bomb. Could also be Palestinians from West Bank.

If it is Hezbollah than it's gonna help their deterrence equation.
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They found fragments of the UAV, every Israeli source I am reading is admitting it was a drone strike and the IDF said they failed to detect it.

This was a large drone with a significant explosive payload. No chance it came from Gaza or West Bank.

Lebanon or Yemen are most likely. My initial thought was Lebanon given earlier events but on balance I am leaning more towards Yemen now. Striking Tel Aviv is a declaration of war, Hezbollah is usually more cautious and calculated than that.
 
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