An Israeli POV: A good read about the war of attrition, Iran's goals, and the low key Hezbollah involvement so far.
Analysis: As well as fighting in Gaza, Israel busy fending off attacks from Hezbollah in north and Houthis in Yemen; Tehran, which is behind all the attacks, hopes to exhaust Israel, says expert
www.ynetnews.com
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“Iran can be satisfied that its tactic of unifying the arenas against Israel is working, albeit at low intensity,” Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said. “All the arenas are active, and Israel is preoccupied, surrounded by fire. The Iranian interest is to exhaust Israel,” Guzansky said.
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Tens of thousands of people, the majority of people living in northern Israel, have been evacuated further south, and the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel is currently being contained by both parties. However, this could well escalate into a full-blown war.
For Iran, supporting Hezbollah has always been part of its regional strategy and aspirations. But with the Shi'ite group, and by extension Iran, being careful to avoid further escalation for now, Iran may be signaling that its desire lies elsewhere at the moment. “By exhausting it, Iran wants to hurt Israel,” Guzansky said. “
But ultimately, Iran wants to safeguard Hezbollah as its insurance policy.”
“Iran doesn’t want to wear out Hezbollah, because it needs it in case Israel attacks its nuclear facilities,” Guzansky said. “What is happening now is convenient. Israel’s north is paralyzed, and Hezbollah losses are almost insignificant.”
During the current war, Iranian-backed militias have also launched drone strikes against US military bases in northern Iraq and eastern Syria, causing several casualties, and the United States has retaliated.
“First and foremost, Iran operates according to its own interests,” Maj. (ret.) Alex Grinberg, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and an expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said. “Iran will continue sacrificing Hezbollah as long as it works for it, but if it wanted to escalate, it would have directed Hezbollah to use all of its firepower,” he said.
For Israel, the situation is not as convenient. The evacuation of the country’s northern and southern residents has paralyzed those areas, and the economy and agriculture have come to a standstill, at a staggering toll.
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Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have repeatedly warned Hezbollah against escalating the situation. “Israel says it cannot put up with the current situation, but it doesn’t have much choice, as the US is stopping it from escalating,” Guzansky said.
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For now, Iran is watching closely to see how successful Israel will be in its stated aim of crushing Hamas. If Tehran perceives Hamas to be close to destruction, it might be motivated to ramp up the fire.